Disaster Research 189

February 24, 1996

This newsletter is reprinted with the full knowledge and consent of the Natural HazardsResearch and Applications Information Center in Boulder, CO.

Table of contents

  1. Seeking Information on Flood Health Hazards
  2. Seeking Information on Mass Casualty Marine Disasters
  3. Seeking Dialogue on Early Warning Systems
  4. Seeking Emergency Management Software
  5. Providing Information on Induced Seismicity
  6. FEMA Seeking Feedback
  7. Disasters, Development, and Mitigation - Taking a Proactive Stance
  8. A Reply to "Scientific Profiles of the Big One"
  9. Another Hazards Assessment Update
  10. Some New Resources on the Hazards Center Web Site
  11. Some Recent Grants of Note
  12. PBS/NOVA to Air Program on 1993 Floods
  13. Conferences and Training


Seeking Information on Flood Health Hazards

I'm looking for information for nurses and other health care workerson health hazards of floods. What do the rashes look like, animal,insect and rodent problems, symptoms of sewage on skin and internaleffects, etc. Would like to present a seminar on this topic for ourlocal Disaster Health Services of the Red Cross. Any suggestions?

Vera Delevan
Vera_Delevan@bendnet.com


Seeking Information on Mass Casualty Marine Disasters

Looking for help on developing a mass casualty incident plan forresponding to incidents involving high capacity passenger vessels(HCPVs) such as ferries or cruise ships. Any help in obtaining casehistories, lessons learned, sample plans and suggestions would begreatly appreciated.

Please contact: John Aucott, Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency,State House Room 27, Providence, RI 02903-1197; (401) 421-7333;e-mail: us014767@interramp.com.


Seeking Dialogue on Early Warning Systems

We are working on a model that decisionmakers could use to identifynation-states that are "failing" - in the sense that their governmentsare not capable or willing to address serious poverty/education/health/disaster response issues that confront the population. Ourthought is that much development aid presupposes a certain level ofcapability (e.g., a public health system that functions at leastrudimentarily) in the government or in the society at large - and thatwhen this precondition does not exist, development aid is unlikely toresult in long-term improvements. [We are] posting this noterecognizing that most DR readers are more interested in famines,floods, etc. But we thought that a dialogue about early warningsystems [for these kinds of failures] might help us better clarify thedistinction between our focus and yours. Again, our focus will be onlong-term economic development/nation building type programs, ratherthan early warning systems for emergency response. However we feelthat a dialogue with those working on early warning issues could bebeneficial for all parties. Please contact us - Prof. James Miskel andProf. Rick Norton - at NWC15@ids.net or NWC13@ids.net. In case thisaddress seems unfamiliar, it is the U.S. Naval War College at Newport,RI. We are co-teaching on U.S. and UN policy towards failing states.


Seeking Emergency Management Software

Hello,
I'm hoping you can steer me in the right direction. I am searching forstand-alone software packages to assist our jurisdiction in managingtwo emergency/disaster functions.

We are looking for a software package to manage our Emergent Volunteerfunction. This software would need to be capable of registeringvolunteers with background information including local addresses,phone numbers, etc., plus any special skills the volunteer may have.It should also have a data base sort function.

The second software package we are looking for is to manage ourMissing Persons function. This software would need to be capable ofhandling personal details about the missing person and then trackingthe missing person as he/she moves to being located . . . in shelter,in hospital-injured, in hospital-deceased, in morgue-deceased, infuneral home-deceased, with relatives, on own, etc. It should alsohave a data base sort function.

If you have any suggestions where I can turn to for this type ofsoftware, I would be most appreciative.Thank you for your time and consideration.

Park Owens, Coordinator, CEM
Rapid City-Pennington County Emergency Management
315 St Joseph Street, B-31
Rapid City, SD 57701
(605) 394-2185
Fax: (605) 394-6812
E-mail:
powens@silver.sdsmt.edu


Providing Information on Induced Seismicity

I have created an Induced Earthquake Bibliography, which can be foundon the Web at

http://www.nyx.net/~dcypser/induceq/induceq.bib.html

It contains references on the following topics:

Darlene A. Cypser
Attorney at Law
P.O. Box 2187
Boulder, CO 80306
(303) 938-9903
dcypser@netcom.com


FEMA Seeking Feedback

[The following message was originally sent by FEMA's Office ofEmergency Information Public Affairs (eipa@fema.gov) to recipients ofFEMA listserve information. However, we thought that some of you whoare not on a FEMA e-mail list might also want to express an opinion.]

FEMA is looking for your feedback on the use of the Internet as acommunication medium for disaster response and recovery information.For the past year, FEMA's use of the Internet has continued to expand.With each disaster, more information has been posted. The Website hasalso grown to include more online publications and expanded sectionson a variety of subjects.

Many of the past year's enhancements were a direct result of yourfeedback. As with previous disasters, now that the floodwaters havesubsided, we are again asking for your feedback. Has the floodinformation been helpful? Should we continue to use and expand FEMA'sInternet presence? Do you have suggestions on new services and/orinformation you would like to have accessible via the Internet?

Thank you for your support of this project. FEMA's "Emergency Lane" onthe Information Superhighway was recently nominated for a PRSA BronzeAnvil Award. Your feedback and use of this service are a MAJORcontributing factor to this project's success.

As recovery operations continue in the Mid-Atlantic and PacificNorthwest, FEMA will continue to update the "Floods of '96" Websitesection (http://www.fema.gov/DIZAS/ws96.htm). As the 1996 hurricaneseason looms on the horizon, we will again begin to prepare ourTropical Storm Watch section. We look forward to hearing from you.

Emergency Information Public Affairs
eipa@fema.gov


Disasters, Development, and Mitigation: Taking a Proactive Stance

[The following article will appear in the upcoming issue of the"Natural Hazards Observer" - which is now available on-line (see item#10 below)]

The 1995 hurricane season was the second most active on record in theU.S. Beginning with Allison and ending with Tanya, there were a totalof 19 named storms, with 11 reaching hurricane strength. At one pointin late August, storm systems were lined up across the Atlantic likeplanes queuing for landing at Miami International Airport. Threehurricanes, Allison, Erin, and Opal, made landfall in Florida, andHurricane Marilyn hit the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The finaltoll in the United States was 58 dead and more than $5.2 billion inproperty losses.

A positive outcome of this season was that it kept pressure onFlorida's policy makers to deal with issues that emerged in the wakeof Hurricane Andrew in 1992. These include new ways of thinking abouthurricane risk, preparation, evacuation, recovery, and mitigation, aswell as the appropriate roles of government, the private sector, andnot-for-profit organizations. It is important that this momentum bemaintained - even broadened. In particular, hazards researchers andpractitioners concerned with mitigation must become more vocal andproactive on community development issues.

- Development and Redevelopment -

More than anything else, Andrew and this past season brought intoquestion conventional wisdom about development, which is a slipperyconcept. It rolls off the tongue so easily, as in: "Our policies areprodevelopment"; "This community needs more development"; or "Withoutdevelopment, there will be no jobs." To many, development implieschange and growth in a positive direction. The assumptions anddirections of normal community development are only rarely questionedor adjusted. Indeed, policies, ordinances, or codes that modify therules or direction of community development all too often wither onthe legislative vine, along with the politicians promoting them, whenthe economic weight of prodevelopment forces enter the political fray.

After a community has experienced a major disaster, however, it iseasier to question the directions, assumptions, and processesassociated with development. In the wake of $30 billion in damagefollowing Hurricane Andrew, the underlying notions of development cameunder critical evaluation. Discussions of "redevelopment" were oftenpunctuated with cautions that if it was development that contributedto these levels of damage and destruction, then perhaps we do not needit.

- Disaster as Failures in Development -

Disasters, as social and economic events, represent failures indevelopment. They can dramatically point out problems with certaintechnologies and bring into question the policies and social processesthat resulted in their use. They are also likely to draw attention tofailures in the distribution and development of better technologies.As such, redevelopment must entail a re-evaluation of not onlytechnology, but the direction and larger issues of development itself.Technological reappraisal comes relatively easy when compared tosuccessfully implementing changes in building codes and enforcementstandards. Even more difficult and contentious, however, is thequestioning of more global notions of what constitutes positivedevelopment and the implementation of alternatives.

In its limited form, the reappraisal after Hurricane Andrew focused onbuilding codes and inspection. The destruction exposed shoddyconstruction practices, poor code enforcement, and the watering downof Dade County's building codes since the 1960s. These factorscontributed to higher levels of damage, and both the codes andprocedures have since been strengthened. Unfortunately, there is atendency for those living in other hurricane-prone areas to deceivethemselves into thinking that these problems were the only reason forthe extensive damage. They fail to recognize that Dade County alreadyhad some of the strongest building codes in the nation but thatAndrew's winds were even stronger. Yet, building code reappraisalelsewhere has been rare and modifications even rarer. Normaldevelopment, without mitigation, continues unabated.

More fundamental re-evaluations of development have also taken placesince Andrew. As one example, We Will Rebuild, the privateorganization of business and community leaders responsible fordistributing millions of donated and public dollars, funded the NewSouth Dade Planning Charrette. The recommendations from this intensiveplanning exercise mapped out alternative ways of thinking aboutcommunity development and the relationship between built and naturalenvironments. They challenged the creation of vast urban wastelands,proposing viable compact communities and greenways that preservenatural resources and minimize exposure. While implementation of theseideas has been limited, they established a precedent for questioningstandard development schemes. Other organizations such as Women WillRebuild, Habitat for Humanity, the Interfaith Coalition for the AndrewRecovery Effort (ICARE), and Centro Campesino, to name a few,successfully lobbied for alternative redevelopment projects, combininglow-cost, hurricane-resistant housing with the creation of sociallyresilient communities. Again, these initiatives were relatively modestwhen compared to total reconstruction efforts; nonetheless, theyrepresent meaningful alternatives and incremental modifications tonormal development schemes. Most important, these efforts mademitigation a central feature in a more comprehensive notion ofcommunity development.

Important initiatives have also been undertaken at the state level inFlorida. The Academic Task Force on Hurricane Catastrophe Insurancedeveloped a comprehensive program to deal with Florida's insurancecrisis. Its recommendations call for aggressive mitigation as part ofnormal development and strengthening of the process for evaluatingbuilding codes and code enforcement at the county level. Insurers areadding pressure by using these ratings in their underwriting. TheFlorida Division of Housing and Community Development is beginning toincorporate mitigation directly into its programs and is seekingpolicy mechanisms for promoting mitigation in other developmentactivities. However, new obstacles continue to arise. The statelegislature recently passed a property owners' rights bill thatpromises to make development with mitigation more difficult. Withoutvigilance and community pressure, perhaps combined with the continuousthreat of hurricanes, these reform efforts will be limited andshort-lived.

The key to mitigation is the realization that it is inextricablylinked to normal community development. Development issues aremitigation issues. The discourse on development must incorporatemitigation, environmental sustainability, enhanced living conditions,and equity issues. Researchers and practitioners interested in hazardreduction, therefore, must also be involved in community development.Proactive mitigation implies being players in the game, not simplyreacting to the losses.

Walter Gillis Peacock
Chair, Academic Steering Committee for the International Center forHurricane Damage and Mitigation
Research, Florida International University


A Reply to "Scientific Profiles of the Big One"

In the November 1995 "Natural Hazards Observer" [and DR179], HareshShah stated in his Invited Comment - "Scientific Profiles of 'The BigOne' " - that "the researchers welcome comments from readers toimprove our ability to develop such complex scenarios." In thatregard, I have the following brief observations:

  1. One can develop an understanding of the costs and losses to aneconomy by plotting the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fora region or for a country over time and noting the dip in the curvecompared to an extrapolated version. [Such a] curve . . . gives aninsight as to the total losses (or loss of value) that were incurredafter the great 1923 earthquake in Japan. [It] illustrates that,immediately following the earthquake, Japan's GDP dropped . . .However, after 10 years, the GDP returned to the same rate of growththat was occurring prior to the earthquake . . .
  2. Shah mentions that a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquakewould cost between $170 and $225 billion in total economic losses andinsured losses of $80 to $105 billion. I have worked these scenariosmyself, and I do not get these high numbers.
  3. Likewise, I compute much less than the $175 to $225 billion totaleconomic losses or the insured losses of $95 to $120 billion for theLos Angeles event.
  4. I have not worked the Tokyo scenario; however, I think that $2 to$4 trillion (more than one-half the Japanese GDP) is also too high. Wemust be careful in believing the numbers we calculate usingmathematical systems that are "iffy" at best.
  5. There are a number of reasons why it was difficult for earthquakerisk forecasters to compute insured losses. The insurance companies inCalifornia after the Northridge earthquake overpaid by as much as afactor of two, according to my calculations. Some of the reasons foroverpayment were:
    • fear of the insurance commissioner,
    • fear of the California courts (bad faith),
    • improperly written and monitored policies,
    • paying nonearthquake policies,
    • improperly trained adjustors who pay too much,
    • paying high bids (see first and second reasons),
    • inspection engineers worrying more about their errors and omissions
    • liability than about valuing claims,
    • escalation of costs under catastrophic conditions, and
    • Department of Building and Safety changes in repair requirements.
    I have firsthand knowledge of every one of the factors mentioned abovethat caused escalation in insured payments.

  6. We must recognize there are gainers as well as losers in theearthquake risk process. Counting only the losers does not give a goodperspective of net community loss.

  7. We must be careful in using the word "loss." The word "value" is abetter indicator for a community in determining the net economicresults of an earthquake. In today's age of plenty (a scenario quitedifferent from the Great Depression), what is spent after anearthquake on alleged earthquake repair to like kind and quality isnot always earthquake related. Yet it may be counted erroneously assuch.
In summary, whereas I agree that these types of information should bedeveloped for public consumption, I would rather see a consensus ofhazard and risk forecasters presenting numbers to the press. Then, onecould take the mean or mean plus one sigma of all the various modelsto alert the public. These high numbers presented by Shah couldseriously damage the confidence level that laypersons have inprofessionals like ourselves who do this kind of work. A great deal ofjudgement still goes into the process. Computers can give us a falsesense of security in the numbers they forecast.

John Wiggins
J.H. Wiggins Company, Redondo Beach, California


Another Hazards Assessment Update

The Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center iscurrently conducting a broad assessment of knowledge and researchneeds regarding natural hazards in the United States. Previous issuesof DR have provided information about various parts of this extensive,distributed project. Below is the third in this series of articlesinforming DR readers of the efforts of the many contributors to theassessment.

- Emergency Preparedness and Response -

Since the first assessment on natural hazards, the U.S. has experienced many of the costliest and most disruptive crises in itshistory, including the Three Mile Island nuclear plant accident, theMount St. Helens eruption, Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew, major floodingin the Midwest, and the Loma Prieta and Northridge earthquakes. Thepattern has been much the same worldwide, with events such as Bhopal,Chernobyl, and the Mexico City and Kobe earthquakes.

This same period has seen significant changes in emergency managementpolicies and programs and the introduction of new technologies andcrisis-management strategies. Among these are the creation of theFederal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the development of theFederal Response Plan, the passage of new legislation such as TitleIII of the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986, thegrowing professionalization of the field of emergency management, andthe advent of the computer revolution.

Research on emergency preparedness and response has typically beenboth event- and problem-driven. Major emergencies and disasters alsopresent major research opportunities; knowledge increases asactivities, impacts, and issues are studied across different disastersand different communities. The two decades since the first assessmenthave been marked by exponential growth in the amount of empirical dataavailable, increased methodological sophistication, and importantconceptual and theoretical advances.

The Subgroup on Emergency Preparedness and Response is documenting andassessing these changes. To accomplish these tasks, the subgroup willfirst systematically review what we currently know about thepreparedness and response activities of various social units(households, organizations, communities, etc.) and identify thoseareas where we still need to know more. Second, the subgroup willdevelop a framework for understanding the broader social, economic,political, and cultural factors that shape how disasters are plannedfor and managed.

To date, our work has primarily centered on reviewing the literatureon preparedness and response, focusing on such topics as public andorganizational response to disaster predictions and warnings,emergency preparedness and response networks, emergent groups andvolunteer behavior, factors affecting the quality and effectiveness ofpreparedness and response activities, and related topics.

Our task is a very large one, and we welcome contributions from bothresearchers and practitioners. If you have ideas or suggestions,please contact Kathleen Tierney, Disaster Research Center, Universityof Delaware, Newark, DE 19716; (302) 831-6618; fax: (302) 831-2091;e-mail: tierney@udel.edu.

- Recovery and Reconstruction -

Since the initiation of systematic empirical studies of disasters andhazards in the 1950s, the issue of disaster recovery has beenrelatively ignored. The earliest studies focused on emergencypreparedness and response. Only in the past two decades haveresearchers paid extensive attention to the critical issues ofrecovery and reconstruction.

As part of the assessment project, a Recovery and ReconstructionSubgroup has been formed to evaluate the state of our knowledgeregarding these issues. Given the nature of the problem, the subgroupis multidisciplinary and includes some of the foremost researchers andpractitioners in the country.

A major focus of the effort will be the assessment of knowledgerelative to mitigation. However, in examining the important linkbetween recovery and mitigation, the subgroup is studying thisrelationship within the concept of sustainability. To accomplish itsmission, the subgroup will examine the following: 1) theconceptualization and reconceptualization of recovery; 2) researchfindings on recovery at the individual, household, organizational,community, and societal levels; 3) models of physical reconstruction;4) the recovery policy process; 5) major economic issues inherent inrecovery and reconstruction; 6) long-term impacts of hazards anddisasters; 7) sustainability and the recovery process; and 8) majorknowledge gaps and proposed future research.

If you would like to participate in this effort or contributeinformation, please contact Dennis Wenger, Hazard Reduction andRecovery Center, College of Architecture, Texas A&M University,College Station, TX 77843-3137; (409) 845-7813; fax: (409) 845-5121;e-mail: wenger@archone.tamu.edu.


Some New Resources on the Hazards Center Web Site

- The "Natural Hazards Observer" - The Natural Hazards Center's award-winning periodical - the "NaturalHazards Observer" - is now available on-line - even before it appearson your local newsstand. To peruse articles like the ones above, orany of the rest of the news and opinion offered by the "Observer,"take a look at the Hazards Center Web site at the address below.

- A New List of All the Hazards Research Centers in the World -

The Hazard Center's home page now also includes a list of othercenters and institutions (primarily in academia) that conduct researchon hazards and disasters - with contact information, a briefdescription, and hypertext links, if available.

Both of these new items are available from the URL:
http://adder.colorado.edu/~hazctr/Home.html


Some Recent Grants of Note

"Reactions to Victims of the 1993 Mississippi Flood: The PoliticalPsychology of Providing Disaster Relief," National Science Foundation,$50,000, 18 months. Principal Investigator: Linda Skitka, Campus Box20, Southern Illinois University - Edwardsville, Edwardsville, IL62025-0020; (618) 692-2000; e-mail: lskitka@uic.edu.

"Indirect Effects on the Performance of Telecommunications Systems atthe Northridge Earthquake," National Science Foundation, $55,000, 10months. Principal Investigator: Felix S. Wong, Weidlinger Associates,4410 El Camino Real, Suite 110, Los Altos, CA 94022-1049; (415) 949-3010.


PBS/NOVA to Air Program on 1993 Floods

On March 26 in many locations, the Public Broadcasting System (PBS)will air a special NOVA presentation on the Great Mississippi Floodsof 1993. The video, prepared by public television station KTCA ofSt. Paul, Minnesota, focuses on the human side of the floods - theirimpacts and the steps people have taken since to mitigate futurelosses. Check your local listings . . . etc.


Conferences and Training

These are the latest announcements we've received regarding upcomingmeetings. Most previous issues of DR contain additional notices. For a*comprehensive* list of upcoming disaster-related conferences, see ourWorld Wide Web page:

http://adder.colorado.edu/~hazctr/Home.html

National Association for Search & Rescue (NASAR) Workshops on:

are offered throughout the year at various sites across the country.For more information and a schedule, contact: Steve Foster, NASARVice-President for Education, P.O. Box 339, Glen Alpine, NC 28628-0339; (704) 584-1768; fax: (704) 584-6858.

Critical Incident Management. Sponsors: International Association ofChiefs of Police (IACP) and International Association of Fire Chiefs(IAFC).

Contact: IACP Training, 515 North Washington Street, Alexandria, VA22314-2357; 1-800-843-4227.

Washington State Emergency Management Conference. Sponsor: WashingtonMilitary Department Emergency Management. Seattle, Washington: March4-7, 1996. Contact: Washington State Emergency Management, MilitaryDepartment, Camp Murray, TA-20, Tacoma, WA 98430-5122; (360) 923-4536;fax: (360) 923-4591.

"When Decisions Count" - A Special Workshop on Disaster Management.Sponsor: International Association of Fire Chiefs (IAFC). Las Vegas,Nevada: March 29, 1996. Contact: Integrated Emergency ManagementSystem Workshop, IAFC, 4025 Fair Ridge Drive, Fairfax, VA 22033-2868;(703) 273-0911; fax: (703) 273-9363; e-mail: iems@connectinc.com.

Los Angeles County Earthquake Fair. Los Angeles Zoo Parking Lot: April12-14. 1996. (Visit the SCEC Education and Knowledge Transfer Booth!)Contact: Contact: SCEC, University of Southern California, UniversityPark, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0740; (213) 740-1560; fax: (213) 740-0011;e-mail: jandrews@coda.usc.edu

Second Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Conference onEarthquake Insurance. Los Angeles, California: April 18, 1996.Preceded on April 17 by the SCEC monthly science seminar, which willaddress the question: Will the rate of large earthquakes in Californiaincrease, stay the same, or decrease over the next 30 to 100 years?and will also include a special lecture, "Insurance 101," on how theinsurance industry works, and how it deals with catastrophes. Also,followed on Friday, April 19, by a field trip to the Whittier-Elsinorefault. Contact: Southern California Earthquake Center, University ofSouthern California, University Park, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0740;(213) 740-1560; fax: (213) 740-0011; e-mail: jandrews@coda.usc.edu.

Short Course on Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis with GeographicInformation Systems (GIS). Offered by: The John A Blume EarthquakeEngineering Center at Stanford University. Stanford, California: April19-20, 1996. Contact: Blume Earthquake Engineering Center, Departmentof Civil Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4020;(415) 723-4150; fax: (415) 725-9755; e-mail: earthquake@ce.stanford.edu.

Fundamentals of Seismic Design. Madison, Wisconsin: April 23-25, 1996.Contact: Department of Engineering Professional Development, Collegeof Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison/Extension, 432 NorthLake Street, Madison, WI 53706; (800) 462-0876, (608) 262-1299; fax:(800) 442-4214, (608) 265-3448.

Natural Hazards, Land-Use Planning, and the Environment. Granada,Spain: April 24-27, 1996. Contact: Clemente Illgarey Fernandez,Departamento de Ingenieria Civil, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad deGranada, Spain; fax: 34 58 243 367; e-mail: jchacon@ugr.es

Simultaneous Workshops on Critical Incident Stress Debriefing,Violence in the Workplace, Peer Support for Emergency Services,Traumatic Stress Management, and Psychotraumatology for Clinicians.Offered by: International Critical Incident Stress Foundation (ICISF),Inc. Anchorage, Alaska: April 24-27, 1996. Contact: ICISF, 5018 DorseyHall Drive, Suite 104, Ellicott City, MD 21042; (410) 730-4311; fax:(410) 730-4313.

Continuing Emergency Disaster Studies & Strategies Symposium (CEDSS)with Simulations. Sponsor: Penn State University Continuing andDistance Education. State College, Pennsylvania: May 28-June 1, 1996.Visit the CEDSS Web site: http://www.cde.psu.edu/CEDSS/; or contact(about program content): William J. Rothwell, Workforce Education andDevelopment, The Pennsylvania State University, 104 Rackley Building,University Park, PA 16802-3202; (814) 863-2581; fax: (814) 863-7532;e-mail: wrj9@psu.edu; WWW: http://www.cde.psu.edu/CEDSS/.(about symposium attendance): Suzanne St. Pierre, Conference Planner,The Pennsylvania State University, 225 Penn State Scanticon,University Park, PA 16802-7002; (814) 863-5140; fax (814) 863-5190.

Continuing Education for Managers of Emergency Preparedness. Sponsor:University of California at Berkeley Extension. San Francisco,California: Beginning June 1996 with a 5-day course on "StrategicPlanning and Implementation" (highly recommended as the starting pointfor managers beginning the university's 8-course certificate program).For managers new to the field of emergency management, "Introductionto Emergency Management" is offered in two days the week before theStrategic Planning course. For more information contact: John Laye,Program Director; (510) 631-0400; johnlaye@violet.berkeley.edu. Toregister, contact: Diane Wolcott, Environmental Management, Universityof California Extension, 1995 University Avenue, Suite 300, BerkeleyCA 94704; (510) 642-7537; fax: (510) 643-8920; e-mail: dlw@unx.berkeley.edu.

1996 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis-Europe: "Risk inModern Society - Lessons from Europe." Guildford, Surrey, U.K.: June3-5, 1996. Contact: Mrs. Jean Libaert, Centre for EnvironmentalStrategy, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 5XH, U.K.; tel: +44 (0)1483 259047; fax; +44 (0) 1483 259394; e-mail: J.Libaert@surrey.ac.uk.

Sixth World Conference on Disaster Management. Sponsors: CanadianCentre for Emergency Preparedness and the Disaster RecoveryInformation Exchange. Hamilton, Ontario, Canada: June 16-21. Call:(800) 965-4608.

Ninth Annual Disaster Management Course. Sponsors: DisasterPreparedness Centre, Cranfield University; Oxford Centre for DisasterStudies. Faringdon, Oxfordshire, U.K.: July 23-August 29, 1996.Contact: The Director, Disaster Preparedness Centre, CranfieldUniversity, RMCS, Shrivenham, Swindon SN6 8LA, U.K.; tel: +44 (0)1 793785287/785313; fax: +44 (0)1 793 782179/783878; e-mail:disprep@rmcs.cranfield.ac.uk.

Disaster Emergency Response Association (DERA) Workshop on CommunityRisk Assessment, Mitigation, and Regional Response to CatastrophicDisaster. Asheville, North Carolina: June 24, 1996. Contact: DERA,P.O. Box 37324, Milwaukee, WI 53237-0324; (414) 587-3636: e-mail:disasters@delphi.com.

American Society for Public Administration (ASPA) 1996 AnnualConference. Atlanta, Georgia: June 29-July 3, 1996. Abstracts due May1. Contact: ASPA, 1120 G Street, N.W., Suite 700, Washington, DC20005-3885; (202) 393-7878; fax: (202) 638-4952

Green '96 - Educating for Sustainable Watersheds. Ann Arbor, Michigan:July 10-12, 1996. Contact: Green International Office, 721 East HuronStreet, Ann Arbor, MI 48104; (313) 761-8142; fax: (313) 761-4951;e-mail: green@green.org.

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) Annual Summer Symposium:Watershed Restoration Management. Syracuse, New York: July 14-17,1996. Contact: AWRA, 950 Herndon Parkway, Suite 300, Herndon, VA22070-5528; (703) 904-1225; fax: (703) 904-1228; e-mail:awrahq@aol.com; WWW: http://www.uwin.siu.edu/~awra.

7th National Institute for Urban Search and Rescue (NI/USR) Conferenceand Forum: Research and Development for Emergency Response. Las Vegas,Nevada: September 3-6, 1996. Contact: NI/USR, P.O. Box 91648, SantaBarbara, CA 93190; (800) 767-0093; fax: (805) 966-6178; e-mail:3090usar@ucsbuxa.ucsb.edu; WWW: http://niusr.org/~usar.

Colorado Association of Stormwater and Floodplain Managers (CASFM)1996 Annual Conference. Vail, Colorado: September 18-20, 1996.Contact: CASFM, c/o Brian Hyde, Colorado Water Conservation Board,1313 Sherman Street, Room 721, Denver, CO 80203; (303) 866-3441; fax:(303) 866-4474.

Western States Seismic Policy Council (WSSPC) Annual Conference.Polson, Montana: September 18-21, 1996. Contact: Steven Ganz, WSSPC121 Second Street 4th floor, San Francisco, CA 94105; (415) 974-6422;fax: (415) 974-1747.

RESCHEDULED (from March 1996):International Conference and Exposition on Natural Disaster Reduction.Sponsor: American Society of Civil Engineers. Washington, DC: December3-5, 1996. Contact: Natural Disaster Reduction '96, ASCE, 345 East47th Street, New York, NY 10017; (800) 548-2723; (212) 705-7285; fax:(212) 705-7975; e-mail: conf@ny.asce.org.

Natural and Technological Coastal Hazards. Tirupati, AP, India:December 2-6, 1996. Contact: Dr. C. Rajasekara Murthy; fax: (905) 336-4989/6230.

International Symposium on Snow and Avalanches. Sponsors: AssociationNationale pour l'Etude de la Neige et des Avalanches, and others.Chamonix, France: May 26-30, 1997. Contact: Secretary General,International Glaciological Society, Lensfield Road, Cambridge CB21ER, U.K.; tel: +44 1223 355974; fax: +44 1223 336543.



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