Disaster Research 207

International Day for Natural Disaster Reduction Coming Up Wednesday, October 9, 1996

[From the United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) Secretariat]

In the year 2000, the irresistible movement of millions of people to the world's urban centers will result in half of the global population (almost 6 billion) living in cities. Driven by unemployment, poverty, misery in rural areas, millions of people are occupying disaster-prone ground in or just outside cities. Municipal authorities are overwhelmed by their sheer numbers and unable to protect them from the floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, tidal surges and other natural disasters that increasingly threaten these areas.

Indeed, at the turn of the century, less than four years off, 17 of the world's 20 largest cities will be in developing countries. By the year 2025, 80% of the earth's urban areas will lie in the developing world, where natural hazards are most likely to occur.

Reflecting this growing risk, the theme for this year's IDNDR Day - October 9 - is "Solutions for Cities at Risk." For the past six weeks the U.N. IDNDR Secretariat has been hosting an Internet conference on this topic, and for many DR readers, this week of the conference may be of particular interest, since the topic is "The Role of Universities."

Introducing the Asian Urban Disaster Mitigation Program (AUDMP)

[Adapted from the upcoming issue of the "Natural Hazards Observer"]

*Hazard Vulnerability in Asia*
Asia is widely recognized as the most disaster-prone area of the world. The region is subject to a wide array of natural hazards, including flooding, earthquakes, landslides, severe storms, as well as technological hazards, such as chemical spills and hazardous waste contamination.

Although hazard mitigation is clearly needed, disaster management in the region to date has tended to be more reactive than proactive. Asia has relatively strong response and relief capabilities, but has done little to prevent and mitigate disasters. Also, while hazard research has been conducted in the scientific and technical communities, the resulting technical information has rarely been communicated to decision makers, nor have general recommendations been turned into concrete strategies or actions.

*Cities as Problems and Opportunities*
Asia's cities provide a key both to understanding vulnerability and to effecting mitigation in the region. From one perspective, cities represent growing disaster vulnerability. To begin, the large-scale migration of rural people to the cities for economic opportunity has led to the rapid, often uncontrolled growth of urban areas. As pressure for habitable urban land increases, people are typically forced to settle on marginal, disaster-prone lands, such as on unstable slopes, along the water's edge, or near technological hazards. In addition, rapid development has resulted in poor construction of buildings and infrastructure, both in the formal and informal sectors. Overall, poorly managed development and related environmental degradation in urban areas has left houses, schools, businesses, and the people in them at greater risk to disaster.

At the same time, cities also represent a critical opportunity to build a safer physical environment. First, cities are the nexus of economic growth in the region. The wealth generated by urban areas provides the financial incentives and means to address hazard vulnerability. Second, urbanizing areas provide a unique opportunity to assess and mitigate hazards during physical development. If disaster mitigation can be effectively incorporated into the management of urban areas, there is a chance not only to reduce hazard vulnerability, but in fact to make cities safe, protective places to live and work.

*Making Cities Safer*
To meet the challenge of urban hazard mitigation in Asia, the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) recently launched the Asian Urban Disaster Mitigation Program (AUDMP). This four-year program strives to reduce the disaster vulnerability of the people, infrastructure, and shelters in targeted cities in Asia. The purpose of the program is twofold: 1) to establish sustainable public- and private-sector mechanisms for disaster mitigation that will measurably lessen loss of life, reduce physical and economic damage, and shorten the post-disaster recovery time; and 2) to promote replication and adaptation of successful mitigation measures within target countries and throughout the region.

Working in conjunction with collaborating institutions in each target country, the program uses a three-tiered strategy:

1) National demonstration projects in each of the target countries will provide working examples of urban hazard mitigation. In a selected urban area in each country, a hazard or set of hazards will be assessed and appropriate disaster mitigation measures will be designed and implemented.

2) The information dissemination and networking component will help build public and private networks to exchange information and experience regarding urban disaster management; again, the goal is to encourage replication of successful mitigation practices.

3) Policy seminars and training will introduce hazard mitigation practices to national-level decision makers, as well as institutionalize disaster management curricula within target countries.

Initially, the AUDMP is structured around demonstration activities in cities of five target countries: India, Indonesia, Laos, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. Bangladesh, Cambodia, Mongolia, Nepal, and Central Asia are all also being considered as sites for future projects.

*Conclusions*
The AUDMP is still in its initial stages; however, urban issues are at the forefront of disaster management worldwide, as evidenced by the United Nation's International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) Secretariat's selection of "Cities at Risk" as this year's theme. In Asia, protecting cities and growth centers from hazards is especially important to ensuring stable, sustainable economic and human growth. By focusing on mitigation in urban areas through the AUDMP, ADPC hopes to help make Asian cities what they can be: safe places to live, work, and invest.

David Hollister, Senior Manager
Erika Lund, Urban Information Manager
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

California Creates State Earthquake Insurance Program

On September 27, California Governor Pete Wilson signed legislation establishing a state-supported program to provide earthquake insurance to homeowners. Following the 1994 Northridge earthquake, insurance companies paid out claims totalling twice the earthquake premiums collected in the state's entire history. As a consequence, in the past two years many homeowners have seen their premiums double or even quadruple, while new home buyers have found it difficult, if not impossible, to obtain any insurance at all.

The new legislation, which follows a bill passed in 1995 that approved formation of the California Earthquake Authority (CEA), authorizes the state insurance commissioner to establish this privately financed, publicly managed state agency to provide earthquake coverage to renters and owners of residential property. The CEA is expected to begin operation by December 1, 1996.

Besides funds provided by participating insurers and insurance premiums, reinsurance, debt authority by the state of California, and capital from private investors will provide funding for the program. Homeowners will still obtain policies from private insurance companies, but the policies will be transferred to the CEA, which will pay any claims. If benefits paid by the CEA following an earthquake exhaust the authority's available capital, the state treasurer will issue revenue bonds or secure other debt financing up to $1 billion. This debt will be repaid through assessments on existing premiums. In addition, the CEA will be able to assess participating insurance companies up to $2 billion in order to pay claims.

The initial CEA legislation passed in 1995 requires that, "if deemed actuarially sound," 5% of all revenues be set aside each year for an Earthquake Loss Mitigation Fund, which may be used to supply grants, loans, or loan guarantees to dwelling owners who wish to retrofit their homes to reduce potential earthquake damage. In return, these owners will receive a premium discount of 5% or more.

The California Department of Insurance estimates that, with the establishment of the CEA, the average earthquake policy will cost $3.29 per $1,000 coverage, with deductibles equal to 15% of the value of the home. The department also estimates that, in its first year of operation, the CEA will have enough resources to handle claims resulting from a quake twice as destructive as the Northridge event. Nevertheless, under the new law, if damage from a future earthquake exceeds CEA resources, payments will be prorated.

The CEA will be managed by a governing board consisting of the state governor, the state treasurer, and the state insurance commissioner. The board will be advised by a 10-member panel of insurance company representatives, a building code expert, and members from the public.

FEMA and NIBS Develop HAZUS to Reduce Earthquake Risk Nationwide

To aid disaster planning, FEMA, as part of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, is sponsoring the development of a standard damage estimate model that can be used by local, state, and regional public officials. The National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) is conducting the research and coordinating the project. The model, called HAZUS, will also be used to prepare rapid loss estimates following actual earthquakes and to estimate the nationwide risk of losses due to quakes.

HAZUS, which is based on geographic information system (GIS) software, will provide communities with mapped estimates of the severity of ground shaking, damaged buildings, casualties, people displaced from homes, damage to transportation systems, disruption of electrical and water utilities, and costs of repair.

The success of the earthquake loss estimation methodology used in HAZUS has led to a new initiative to expand HAZUS so that it can be used to estimate losses due to damaging winds and floods.

For further information about HAZUS, contact Philip Schneider, Earthquake Loss Estimation Study, National Institute of Building Sciences, 1201 L Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20005; (202) 289-7800; fax: (202) 289-1092; or Fred Sharrocks, Federal Emergency Management Agency, 500 C Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20472; (202) 646-2796; fax: (202) 646-4596.

USGS Offers Earth-Science Studies to Reduce Earthquake Losses

The U.S. Geological Survey has just released a folio of 13 full color fact sheets entitled "Reducing Earthquake Losses Throughout the United States." The fact sheets describe a variety of scientific investigations designed to explain the earthquake threat and to reduce earthquake damage and losses nationwide. The studies emphasize collaborative efforts among federal, state, and local government and the private sector and portray results of two decades of scientific research accomplished under the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP).

The case studies include:

• Averting Surprises in the Pacific Northwest
• Building Safer Structures
• Hazard Maps Help Save Lives and Property
• The Los Angeles Dam Story
• The Mississippi Valley - "Whole Lotta Shakin' Goin' On"
• Pay a Little Now, or a Lot Later
• Quake Forecasting - An Emerging Capability
• Saving Lives Through Better Design Standards
• Seismic Maps Foster Landmark Legislation
• Southern Californians Cope with Earthquakes
• Speeding Earthquake Disaster Relief
• Utah Braces for the Future
• When Will the Next Great Quake Strike Northern California?

A Few Surfing Sites

Conferences and Training