Disaster Research 213

December 31, 1996

This newsletter is reprinted with the full knowledge and consent of the Natural HazardsResearch and Applications Information Center in Boulder, CO.

Table of contents

  1. Looking for Information on the Hazards of Hazards Warnings
  2. Looking for Examples of Communication Failures in Disasters
  3. Want to Beta Test an Emergency Management Web Site?
  4. Looking for Information on Weather Monitoring and Alerting for Emergency Management
  5. New FEMA Emergency Operations Planning Guide Online
  6. EERI to Develop Plan for FEMA's Existing Buildings Program
  7. Central Asian Earthquake Mitigation Effort Undertaken
  8. Web Stuff
  9. Conferences and Training
***** A New Year! *****

All of us at the Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado, wishyou the very best in 1997.

It would be naive to hope for a disaster-free year, but we do wishthat each of you who contribute in some way to mitigating and managingdisasters are faced with minimal stress and burdens in 1997. At thesame time, we extend to each of you thanks and appreciation for thework you do.

All the best,
Hazards Center Staff


Looking for Information on the Hazards of Hazards Warnings

I am looking for information on the hazards of hazard warning for afeature for the British newspaper, The Daily Telegraph. I amparticularly interested in knowing whether, if it were possible toaccurately predict earthquakes, the public would genuinely want thisinformation. For instance would accurate prediction cause:

In other words, would prediction cause greater damage and loss of lifethan a quake?

Your help at this busy holiday season would be much appreciated. Thankyou.

Vivienne Parry
Reporter, BBC Television, Tomorrow's World
(and currently writing for Daily Telegraph)
v.parry@bbctw.demon.co.uk


Looking for Examples of Communication Failures in Disasters

Alert Systems has engaged a grant writer to prewrite grant templatesto help states apply for certain emergency management funding. AlertSystems is seeking specific examples of communications systemsweaknesses or failures related to natural or man-made disastersituations. Examples might include inability to convey situation orevacuation information to hearing-impaired persons or vacationers, theavailability of day-time-only radio stations for EM broadcasts, orinability to evacuate an area in a timely manner during a hazmatincident. Disaster debriefing reports, reports/recommendations tolegislative bodies, or similar hard copy materials would be greatlyappreciated.

Responses can be sent by e-mail to ken@mail.inxpress.net;or snail-mailed to Ken Post, 5622 Old Middleton Road, Madison, WI53705, USA.

Thanks for your help.
Ken Post


Want to Beta Test an Emergency Management Web Site?

Our good friend and hazards net wiz, Art Botterell, recently wrote via the"Networks in Emergency Management" e-mail list (nets-em@sfu.ca):

NETSfolk -

You are invited to beta-test an online survey tool I'm building forthe good folks at "9-1-1 Magazine." The idea is to elicit suggestionsabout future directions for 9-1-1 service (or its equivalent in othercountries) and then use a much-modified Delphi process accumulatingratings of the value and timeframe for each suggestion. I promise itwon't take long, so if you have a free moment at the browser, pleasesurf over to:
www.incident.com/9-1-1/survey.html
There's a "feedback" button for mailing back your comments. And, ofcourse, feel free to toss in your own ratings and ideas for thesurvey.

Thanks...
- Art


Looking for Information on Weather Monitoring and Alerting for Emergency Management

[Also appropriated from the Nets discussion group]

Happy Holidays to All

We are endeavoring to develop redundant weather monitoring andalerting systems for our around-the-clock emergency managementoperations and communications center. In exploring means through whichwe may expand our capabilities, we are considering various means oftechnology including pager-based, internet, and commercial basedapplications. Any input in this area, including how you stay abreastof weather, especially inclement weather - advisories, watches, andwarnings - would be greatly appreciated.

Steven Kuhr
New York City
Work:
skuhr@mayorlan.nycnet.ci.nyc.ny.us
Home: skuhr@worldnet.att.net


New FEMA Emergency Operations Planning Guide Online

FEMA's new "State and Local Guide for All Hazard Emergency OperationsPlanning" is now available on the FEMA Web site. The direct URL is
www.fema.gov/pte/gaheop.htm

This document is also available in hard copy from FEMA's Printing andPublications Branch. You may place your order by contacting: FEMA,P.O. Box 2102, Jessup, MD 20794-2012; 1-800-480-2520; fax: (301)497-6378. In your order, give the title, item number (9-1051), shorttitle (SLG 101), quantity requested, and your name, address, anddaytime phone number.

The forward to the guide states:

One goal of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is todevelop, in partnership with State and local governments, a nationalemergency management system that is comprehensive, risk-based, andall-hazard in approach.

Crucial to this system are emergency operations plans (EOP), whichdescribe who will do what, as well as when, with what resources, andby what authority - before, during, and immediately after anemergency.

This State and Local Guide (SLG) provides emergency managers and otheremergency services personnel with information on FEMA's concept fordeveloping risk-based, all-hazard emergency operations plans.

This Guide clarifies the preparedness, response, and short-termrecovery planning elements that warrant inclusion in State and localEOPs. It offers FEMA's best judgment and recommendations on how todeal with the entire planning process - from forming a planning teamto writing the plan. It also encourages emergency managers to addressall of the hazards that threaten their jurisdiction in a single EOPinstead of relying on stand-alone plans.


EERI to Develop Plan for FEMA's Existing Buildings Program

[Adapted from the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI)Newsletter]

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has asked theEarthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) to develop astrategic plan for the next decade of its program on seismic safety ofexisting buildings. EERI, along with the Applied Technology Counciland the Building Seismic Safety Council, drafted the original plan,which has guided the FEMA program for the past decade. Among theengineering products that have come out of the first decade of theprogram are guides on rapid visual screening, seismic evaluation,rehabilitation techniques, typical costs of rehabilitation, and abenefit-cost software package on seismic rehabilitation. FEMA 273 -"NEHRP Guidelines for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings," andseveral associated volumes to be published in 1997, are theculminating products of the first plan.

FEMA has turned to EERI to produce Plan 2005 to define priorities forthe coming decade. This strategic plan will have two significantcomponents: 1) a blueprint of the major issues that FEMA shouldaddress in the next decade, along with a practical master schedule andestimated resource needs, and 2) a plan for the dissemination andimplementation of the products that have been developed during thefirst decade of the program.

A key component of the development of Plan 2005 will be an invitedworkshop to be held in 1997, which will be organized around "issues."The resolution of these issues will result in a priority-based list ofneeds and recommendations that will form the basis of the strategicplan.

The project leaders are asking for input from the EERI membership[and, presumably, other interested persons - ed.]. Based on yourexperience, what are the key needs, issues, or concerns relating toseismic safety of existing buildings that need to be addressed? Whatare the critical information gaps, in the technical, economic, publicpolicy, and other arenas, that need to be filled? Concerns and ideasshould be sent to Bob Olson, in care of EERI, 499 14th Street, Suite320, Oakland, CA 94612-1934. (510) 451-0905; fax: (510) 451-5411;e-mail: eeri@eeri.org.


Central Asian Earthquake Mitigation Effort Undertaken

[Also taken from the EERI Newsletter]

In October more than fifty experts on seismology, earthquake-resistantdesign, and emergency response from Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan,Tadjikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Russia, Greece,Turkey, Kenya, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the UnitedStates met in Almaty, Kazakstan, to consider strategies for urbanearthquake risk management in Central Asia. This was the first meetingof its kind, and it brought together the Central Asian participantsfor the first time as delegates of independent countries. Concern thata major earthquake near a capital city of a Central Asian republiccould repeat the tragedies that befell Armenia in 1988 and Sakhalin in1995 motivated the workshop.

During the workshop, the delegates reviewed the factors contributingto the Armenian tragedy and summarized the earthquake risk of thecapital cities of the Central Asian republics. Chief among thefindings were:

  1. There is a high probability that a severe earthquake will occur near the capital of one or more of the Central Asian republics within the next 20 years, with consequences as devastating as or worse than those witnessed in Leninakan, Armenia, in 1988.
  2. Such an earthquake will produce, in the nearby capital city, ground shaking equal to that experienced in Leninakan, namely, intensity IX on the MSK scale. The MSK scale classifies the effects of earthquakes on nature and manmade structures from a level of I (indicating no effects) to a level of XII (indicating total destruction).
  3. Based on world-wide experience in developing countries, it is estimated that ground shaking of an intensity level of IX will result in a fatality rate of at least 5% of the exposed population and an injury rate of 20%. (In Leninakan, the fatality rate was about 5%; in Sakhalin it was about 60%.) For a city the size of Almaty, this would mean approximately 75,000 deaths and 300,000 injuries.
  4. More than one-half of all residential buildings in the Central Asian capitals would likely collapse or be damaged beyond repair if exposed to an MSK IX level of shaking. This means that a severe earthquake near a capital would cause, in addition to the deaths and injuries already mentioned, tremendous physical destruction of the city, with consequent economic disruption.

Given the immensity of the earthquake risk in Central Asia, thedelegates committed themselves to the following three actions:

  1. They will urge their governments to address earthquake safety in schools, day care centers, hospitals, emergency response agencies, and critical lifelines.
  2. They will endeavor to initiate cooperative projects with the international communities in each of the capital cities. The projects would involve Central Asian and international teams of engineers who would design and implement retrofit measures for facilities critical to these communities. This work might be financed by international organizations and would result in a cadre of well-trained local engineers, capable of pursuing similar projects on their own in the future.
  3. The delegates created a Joint Central Asian Urban Earthquake Risk Management Working Group, consisting of the heads of the delegations of the five republics and foreign experts. The group's purpose is to promote urban earthquake risk management throughout Central Asia, by carrying on such activities as:

    • improving the exchange of information among the Central Asian republics and with external organizations;
    • training professionals, especially students;
    • contributing to the creation of new legislation that governs earthquake safety;
    • raising public awareness of earthquake risk;
    • rehabilitating residential construction to a minimum level of seismic safety; and
    • establishing a strong-motion network of five digital stations in each capital with uniform data processing, common instrumentation, and free data exchange.

The Working Group's first meeting is scheduled for July 1997 inIstanbul, Turkey, where the Central Asian members of the group willpresent a concrete plan of action to be discussed. For details,contact EERI, 499 14th Street, Suite 320, Oakland, CA 94612-1934.(510) 451-0905; fax: (510) 451-5411; e-mail: eeri@eeri.org.


Web Stuff

www.dir.ucar.edu/esig/socasp/
In the last DR we mentioned the new "Weatherzine" Web newsletteron society and weather. The URL above is the address for Weatherzine'smother Web site covering "The Societal Aspects of Weather" - acompendium of information maintained by the Environmental and SocietalImpacts Groups of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

nais.ccm.emr.ca/~kramers/hazardnet/a_contents/content.htm
nais.ccm.emr.ca/~kramers/hazardnetf/a_contents/content.htm
These are the URLs for the English and French versions of theCanadian Natural Hazards Map.


Conferences and Training

These are the latest conference announcements we've received. Mostprevious issues of DR contain additional notices. For a*comprehensive* list of upcoming disaster-related meetings andtraining, see our World Wide Web page:
adder.colorado.edu/~hazctr/Home.html

Repair and Strengthening of Structures Following an Earthquake.Sponsor: The Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics(SECED). London, England: January 29, 1997. Contact: The Institutionof Civil Engineers, Great George Street, Westminster SW1P 3AA, U.K.;tel: 0171-222-7722; fax; 0171-222-7500.

National Emergency Management Association (NEMA) Mid-Year Conference.Washington, D.C.: February 9-12, 1997. Contact: NEMA, c/o Council ofState Governments, P.O. Box 11910, Lexington, KY 40578-1920; (606)244-8162; fax: (606) 244-8239; WWW: www.nemaweb.org.

36th Annual Texas Emergency Management Conference. Sponsor: TexasGovernor's Division of Emergency Management. Austin, Texas: February19-21, 1997. Contact: Jo Schweikhard Moss, Public Information Officer,Governor's Division of Emergency Management, Texas Department ofPublic Safety, P.O. Box 4087, Austin, TX 78773; (512) 424-2138; fax;(512) 424-2444.

Passive Energy Dissipation for Seismic/Wind Design and RetrofitCourse. Offered by the National Center for Earthquake EngineeringResearch (NCEER) and the Earthquake Engineering Research Center(EERC). Irvine, California: February 20-22, 1997. Contact: AndreaDargush, NCEER, State University of New York at Buffalo, Red JacketQuadrangle, Buffalo, NY 14261-0025; (716) 645-3391; fax: (716) 645-3399; e-mail: dargush@acsu.buffalo.edu.

International Disaster Recovery Association (IDRA) Seventh AnnualConference and Trade Show: "Disaster Recovery, Contingency Planning,and Business Continuation Using Telecommunications." Boston,Massachusetts: March 2-5, 1997. Contact: BWT Associates, P.O. Box4515, Turnpike Station, Shrewsbury, MA 01545; (508) 845-6000; fax:(508) 842-2585; e-mail: idra@idra.com; WWW: www.idra.com.

22nd Annual Northeastern Storm Conference. Sponsor: Lyndon StateCollege AMS/NWA Chapter. Saratoga Springs, New York: March 7-9, 1997.Contact: Gerry Bielinski; (802) 626-6661; e-mail: bielinskig@queen.isc.vsc.edu.

Making the Most of Real-Time Information Technologies in ManagingEarthquake Emergencies. Sponsors: California Governor's Office ofEmergency Services and others. Pasadena, California: March 12, 1997.Contact: Dewey Pham, EQE International, 18101 Von Karman, Avenue,Suite 400, Irvine, CA 92612; (714) 833-3303.

Workshop on Integrated Seismic Analysis, Design, and Retrofitting ofBridges. Sponsors: Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Universityof California-Berkeley, and others. Berkeley, California: March 24-27,1997. Contact: Continuing Education in Engineering, UniversityExtension, University of California, 1995 University Avenue, Berkeley,CA 94720-7010; (510) 642-4151; fax: (510) 642-6027

Rehabilitation After Earthquakes. Sponsor: The Society for Earthquakeand Civil Engineering Dynamics (SECED). London, England: March 26,1997. Contact: The Institution of Civil Engineers, Great GeorgeStreet, Westminster SW1P 3AA, U.K.; tel: 0171-222-7722; fax; 0171-222-7500.

"Planning for a Safer Tomorrow": One-Day Seminar on Hazard LossReduction. Sponsors: Colorado Natural Hazards Mitigation Council andothers. Golden, Colorado: April 8, 1997. Contact: Colorado NaturalHazards Mitigation Foundation, P.O. Box 260530, Lakewood, CO 80226-0530; or call Fred Sibley, (303) 273-1775, or Shannon Kelly, (303)790-0216.

22nd General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society. Vienna,Austria: April 21-25, 1997. Contact: EGS Office, Max-Plank Str. 1,37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany; tel: +49-5556-1440; fax: +49-5556-4709; e-mail: egs@linax1.mpae.gwdg.de; WWW: www.mpae.gwdg.de/EGS/EGS.html.

Joint Meeting of the Canadian Geophysical Union-Hydrological Section,Western Snow Conference and Eastern Snow Conference. Sponsors:National Hydrology Research Institute of Environment Canada andothers. Banff, Alberta, Canada: May 4-9, 1997. Abstracts due January15. Contact: M. Stroh, Conference Management Services, University ofCalgary, 1833 Crowchild Trail NW, Calgary, Alberta T2M 4S7, Canada;(403) 220-6229; fax: (403) 284-4184; e-mail: cguconf@acs.ucalgary.ca;WWW: www.geo.ucalgary.ca/~wu/cgu97hydro.html.

American Geophysical Union (AGU) Spring Meeting. Baltimore, Maryland:May 27-30, 1997. Contact: AGU, 2000 Florida Avenue, N.W., Washington,DC 20009; (202) 462-6900; WWW: www.aug.org.

Colorado Association of Stormwater and Floodplain Managers (CASFM)Annual Meeting. Vail, Colorado: September 22-24, 1997. Contact: CASFM,P.O. Box 22673, Denver, CO 80222-0673.

American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting. San Francisco,California: December 8-12, 1997. Contact: AGU, 2000 Florida Avenue,N.W., Washington, DC 20009; (202) 462-6900; WWW: www.aug.org.

Seventh International Symposium on Society and Resource Management.Hosted by the University of Missouri-Columbia. Abstracts and proposalsdue November 15, 1997. Columbia, Missouri: May 27-31, 1998. Contact:Dr. Sandy Rikoon, ISSRM Co-Chair, University of Missouri-Columbia,Rural Sociology, Sociology Building 108, Columbia, MO 65211; (573)882-0861; fax: (573) 882-1473; e-mail: ssrsjsr@muccmail.missouri.edu;WWW: silva.snr.missouri.edu/issrm.

8th International Symposium on Landslides. Cardiff, Wales, U.K.: June26-30, 2000. Contact: Eddie Bromhead, Chairperson of the OrganisingCommittee; e-mail: e.bromhead@atlas.king.ac.uk; WWW: www.king.ac.uk/~ce_s011/isl8-000.htm.



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Michael Scott / mscott@ecotopia.geog.sc.edu
Last Modified: 01/09/97