DISASTER RESEARCH 255

1. Hazard from the Skies? The Asteroid Impact Scare of Mid-March 1998
   
2. More Internet Resources
   
3. Help Wanted - American Red Cross, Greater New York
   
4. Help Wanted - Red Cross/FEMA
   
5. Help Wanted - FEMA Seeks Outstanding Scholars
   
6. Help Wanted - Department of Transportation

1)----------
Hazard from the Skies? The Asteroid Impact Scare of Mid-March 1998

On March 11th, Harvard astronomer Brian Marsden, on behalf of the International Astronomical Union (IAU), issued an "IAU Circular" to the world's astronomers about a possible very close pass to the earth of a mile-wide asteroid in the year 2028. That is the size of asteroid that could cause a world-wide ecological catastrophe and kill hundreds of millions or billions of people, according to the best analyses that have been made. Marsden was aware that, in addition to astronomers, science journalists subscribe to the "IAU Circulars." Therefore, he prepared a press information sheet, elaborating on his prediction, and stating that there was a "small" chance that the asteroid would actually hit the earth; that information was distributed to the press by the American Astronomical Society . . . The story played prominently on evening news telecasts on March 11th and was banner-headline news around the world the next day.

Impacts by asteroids and comets are a *real* possibility, even though the probabilities of a civilization-threatening impact are extremely low (about 1 chance in 300,000 per year). The potential consequences, however, would be enormous, even though falling far short of the kind of mass-extinction holocaust recorded at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary 65 million years ago. The discovery rate of earth-approaching asteroids will surely rise, along with future cases of uncertainty about possible earth impact.

[However, what] happened a few weeks ago, simply put, was a mistake . . . there was no basis for making the original announcement . . . If you want more information about the Near Earth Object (NEO) impact hazard, and a detailed - if incomplete - history of the events in mid-March, check out the Web site below. It is a revision of a *draft* case study I prepared for the July 1997 "Workshop on Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making," organized by the Geological Society of America and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, under NSF sponsorship: http://www.boulder.swri.edu/clark/ncar.html

There are roughly 2000 earth-approaching asteroids that approach or exceed the "one mile wide" size that David Morrison and I have established (Nature, 367, 33-40, 1994) as possibly civilization-threatening. Less than 10% of these have been discovered. The job for NEO astronomers is to discover as many of the remaining ones (NASA's stated goal, not yet implemented, is 90% of them in the next decade), and to determine their orbits. Almost certainly, as each one is discovered, it will be demonstrated within days (occasionally as long as a few years) to *not* be on a collision course with earth. As we go through this process of certifying that asteroids will *not* strike the earth, we will gradually reduce the probability of impact in the succeeding 30 years from the current 1 chance in 10,000 to 1 chance in 100,000 (from the remaining 10%).

As of March 11th, observations of the position of 1997 XF11 had been reported to the IAU Minor Planet Center over a three-month period. The good news is that those data, and those data alone, were sufficient to demonstrate that 1997 XF11 would *not* hit the earth during its approach in 2028 or at any other time in the foreseeable future (more specifically, that the chances of XF11 impacting the earth could be shown to be *much* less than the background probability - 1 chance in 10,000 - of an unknown asteroid of that size hitting us before 2028).

[Unfortunately, these data were not taken into account when the initial circular and press sheet were released.]

In the future, it will be necessary for NEO scientists to do what scientists have traditionally done for centuries, which is to have important results peer-reviewed before they make . . . announcements to the public. To facilitate this, all data from the international astronomical community should be disseminated as rapidly as is technically possible, and procedures should be implemented to cross-check and peer-review announcements of potentially hazardous close approaches before such conclusions are published (i.e. made public). Such evaluations and reviews should be done rapidly. Already, NASA, the IAU, and others are starting to formulate procedures to minimize the chances of future cases of "Chicken Little." I hasten to add that such a procedure is *not* "secretive" - double-checking and peer review are the normal ways that scientists report results and ensure that the public can have some degree of confidence that the reported results are reliable.

2)----------
More Internet Resources

The Federal Insurance Administration has launched a National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Web site as a subsection of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) site. The NFIP information is intended for both the general public and the many organizations and agencies participating in the program. It includes much information about the NFIP and other flood disaster assistance available from the federal government and access to the newly revised NFIP booklet "Answers to Questions about the National Flood Insurance Program."

The California Environmental Resources Evaluation System (CERES, which we've mentioned before in connection with El Nino - see DR #234) incorporates an excellent section on California flooding. The site includes a clickable map of potential and actual floods in California, copious links to sources of flood information and weather updates, as well as related information on such things as disaster preparedness and recovery, snow reports, etc.

The Web site of the International Hurricane Center at Florida International University, offers information about the center and staff, the center's ongoing research, IHC events, education and training provided by the center, and publications. It also provides links to the National Hurricane Center and other related institutions, as well as the proceedings and the declaration resulting from the Hemispheric Congress on Disaster Reduction and Sustainable Development. The related geohazards site provides information about geohazards and remote sensing studies conducted at the center. That staff is currently doing work in Mexico related to geohazard mitigation.

While freezing rain is not an uncommon Canadian experience, the ice storm that hit eastern Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick was exceptional. At this Web site, Environment Canada senior climatologist and resident climate expert, David Phillips, provides his analysis of Ice Storm '98, along with much background information.

The National Climate Data Center provides volumes of information about the impacts of climate change, including the "Climate Change and Weather Extremes" section cited above. That site includes lists of events, reports, publications, data, images, and links to sites that deal with weather extremes.

The Web site of the National Drought Information Center (NDMC) now includes current and back issues of the center's informative newsletter, "Drought Network News," as well a *much* other information about drought and the center's work on drought mitigation. For anyone concerned about this hazard, the NDMC site deserves serious scrutiny; see, for example, "The Enigma of Drought: Science and Impacts" at the second URL above.

From the same location, the Western Drought Coordination Council provides information about the council's ongoing work as well as a quarterly report - "Western Climate and Water Status" - which synthesizes 75 different data sources regarding the western U.S. water/drought outlook. Interested persons can receive the executive summary of this report quarterly via e-mail by contacting Kelly Smith, khsmith@enso.unl.edu.

This portion of the U.S. Geological Survey's Center for Coastal Geology Web site provides "Natural Disasters - Forecasting Hurricane Occurrence, Economic and Life Losses," a USGS report on fractal scaling methods used by the Survey to forecast the size and number of natural disasters and their attendant losses.

Volunteers in Technical Assistance (VITA) is hosting a Web-based conference on "Developing Country Communication Issues." The aim is to "make sure the developing countries truly are integrated into this [information/communication] revolution" and to develop a practical plan "to ensure people in developing countries are included in [this] revolution . . . based on the insights of experts will be finalized and presented to various government agencies and businesses for implementation."

listserv@listserv.aol.com

An Internet mail list for *Public Information Officers* of public safety agencies and organizations is now available. PIOs of law enforcement, fire service, emergency medical, emergency management, search/rescue and 911/PSAP agencies, and related organizations are welcome to participate in this new list. To subscribe to the PIO List, send e-mail as follows:

The PIO list is an information service of Public Safety America; and is provided free of charge.

El Nino - the soundtrack?! The Internet music service TheDJ.com has compiled the first "All-Weather-Disaster Playlist." The service's "El Nino Channel" includes such tunes as "Good Day Sunshine," "Rainy Day Women," "Stormy Weather," "Walking On Sunshine" and "Summer Wind," to provide some comic relief to these unending grey El Nino days.

3)----------
Help Wanted - American Red Cross, Greater New York

Responsibilities include: Overseeing day-to-day operation of the department; continuing to develop and improve fully integrated disaster response capacity that provides as much service as possible in the field and on initial contact with disaster victims (e.g., mass care, damage assessment, family assistance, and mental health service or referrals when necessary); participating in the identification and development of new and expanded programs and the acquisition of funding to support these programs; and managing contracts (including submission of required reports) and maintaining relationships with contracting agencies' contract managers.

Requirements include: Knowledge of emergency or crisis management principles and methods. Experience in managing a 24-hour/7-day-a-week operation helpful. Bachelor degree with a minimum of five years in supervisory and administrative positions. Must have excellent communications skills (written and verbal) and be computer literate. Must receive American Red Cross accreditation at the instructor level in a disaster services discipline within one year and reach the coordinator level in that function within two years.

Salary commensurate with experience, plus comprehensive benefit package. Please mail or fax a resume, with salary history and requirement, to: American Red Cross in Greater New York, Employee Resources, Department JP498, 150 Amsterdam Avenue, New York, NY 10023; fax: (212) 875-2357.

4)----------
Help Wanted - Red Cross/FEMA

FYI for anyone interested:

You will see the job vacancy announcement for the FEMA Voluntary Agency Liaison positions for Denver, Boston, New York, Atlanta posted on the Red Cross Web site: http://www.redcross.org, then

1. Go to "Career Opportunities"
   
2. Go to "Want to Help"
   
3. Go to "Career Opportunities"
   
4. Go to "National Sector Corporate Positions"
   
5. Go to 9) "Disaster Services"

Look at "Regional Voluntary Agency Liaison"

These positions are Red Cross positions, but they are permanently detailed to FEMA. They work for the FEMA Regional Directors in each of the FEMA Regional Offices. Call me if you have questions.

Ben Curran

5)----------
Help Wanted - FEMA Seeks Outstanding Scholars

GS-07/$26,532 per year

Location: Washington, DC and limited positions nationwide

Area of Consideration: All sources nationwide (no relocation expenses will be paid)

All Majors Considered: FEMA's outstanding scholar recruitment program maintains an active employment referral file for the following positions: computer science, information systems, contract specialist, human resources management, accounting, emergency management. By applying through the outstanding scholar program, candidates become eligible for noncompetitive employment referral to offices throughout FEMA.

Description of work: Employees hired under the outstanding scholar program will perform trainee-level professional work associated with, and in support of, planning for natural or technological disasters, responding to them, and recovering from them. These positions are developmental in nature, allowing the employee to take on progressively higher level duties. Responsibilities may involve working closely with other federal, state, and local governments and the private sector where FEMA is the central point of contact for a wide range of emergency management activities. The agency is dedicated to working closely with members of the emergency management community to improve the nation's preparedness and increase its ability to respond to emergencies of all types.

Qualifications: To be considered as an employment candidate under this program, the applicant must have graduated from a 4-year accredited college or university, and: 1) must have graduated with a cumulative GPA of at least 3.45 for undergraduate work only; or 2) must have graduated in the top 10% of his/her graduating class or major university subdivision.

Applications must contain the following:

1. Completed, signed, and dated OF-612, SF-171, or a resume that provides all of the following information: full name, address, work and home phone numbers, work history and previous salaries, military service and veteran's preference information, social security number, and date of birth.

2. Original college transcript (official) that indicates cumulative GPA and the date on which the bachelor's degree was granted*, and,

3. Transcripts from any other colleges or university attended during undergraduate study.

4. If claiming standing in top 10% of the graduating class or major university subdivision, applicant must submit a letter from the college registrar, or academic dean, verifying class standing.

*If graduation/final grades are pending, indicate when the final transcript is expected. Submit a current transcript with application. Mail the final transcript as soon as it is available.

Applicants are also encouraged (but not required) to submit the following:

1. Transcripts reflecting any graduate, post-graduate, or professional level (i.e, medical school, law school) work.

2. If previously employed by the federal government, a recent SF-50 and performance appraisal.

Send application materials to:

Federal Emergency Management Agency
500 C Street, SW, Room 816
Washington, DC 20472
Attn: OHRM, Cheri S. Allen

For additional information, contact Cheri Allen at (202) 646-3072.

6)----------
Help Wanted - Department of Transportation

The Office of Emergency Transportation with the Research and Special Programs Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., is seeking candidates for the position of Emergency Transportation Manager, GS-2102-15 (salary range $77,798-$101,142). The manager works in partnership with the Director of the office in the implementation and execution of the Secretary's statutory and administrative responsibilities in civil transportation emergency preparedness, including policies, plans, procedures, systems, and programs involving natural or human-caused emergencies. Contact: Anh Bolles; (202) 366-5608, for vacancy announcement #98-08. Applications are due May 1.

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