Tracy Monegan Rice
Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines (PSDS)
Division of Earth & Ocean Sciences
Nicholas School of the Environment
Duke University
Durham, NC 27708
Tel: 919-681-8228
Fax: 919-684-5833
E-mail: tam8@acpub.duke.edu
Matthew Stutz
Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines (PSDS)
Division of Earth & Ocean Sciences
Nicholas School of the Environment
Duke University
Durham, NC 27708
Tel: 919-681-8228
Fax: 919-684-5833
E-mail: mstutz@geo.duke.edu
Andrew S. Coburn
Coburn & Associates Coastal Planning
Consultants
PO Box 12582
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2582
Tel: 919-598-8489
Fax: 919-598-0516
E-mail: golions@mindspring.com
Robert S. Young
Department of Geoscience and Natural
Resource Management
Western Carolina University
253 Stillwell Hall
Cullowhee, NC 28723
Tel: (704) 227-7503
E-mail: ryoung@wcu.edu
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This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMS-9632458. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
Hurricane Bonnie was a Category 3 storm that made landfall near Cape Fear/Wilmington, North Carolina on August 27, 1998. The strength of the storm was very similar to that of Hurricane Fran, which devastated the area two years ago. However, Bonnie slowed considerably in its forward movement and made a slow, sweeping arc across the coastal plain of North Carolina and the Tidewater area of Virginia. Bonnie's very slow, and at times stationary, movement increased the local flooding from rainfall, but greatly decreased the coastal flooding from storm surge.
Bonnie seemed to have had a dispersed wind field. That is, even though the maximum winds reported by the National Hurricane Center were 115 mph, at any given time relatively little area covered by the storm received maximum winds. In general, Bonnie was not a significant event other than from the standpoint of learning how little we know about hurricanes and how poorly we are able to predict the impacts of a given storm on a given coastal area.
In order to cover as much ground as quickly as possible, Rob Young headed to the southern North Carolina coast, Dave Bush headed to the northern North Carolina and Tidewater Virginia coast, Tracy Rice and Matt Stutz looked at mainland shorelines, and Andy Coburn was responsible for gathering aerial video and still photographs. Supplemental funding for the project was provided by Duke University and the State University of West Georgia.
The first signs of overwash north of Myrtle Beach were observed on the eastern side of Bald Head Island, North Carolina (east of the mouth of the Cape Fear River) and persisted up to the western edge of Bogue Banks. Washover was more prevalent in undeveloped areas, with overwash fans extending well into the sound-side marshes in many undeveloped areas.
Approximately 60% of the artificial dune created on Topsail Island after Fran was removed by Bonnie, with many structures (possibly up to 100) in Surf City and North Topsail Beach now well out on the beach.
Of particular interest were the thousands of tires - dumped into the ocean in the mid 1980s to create artificial reefs - that washed ashore on Bogue Banks.
On the northern Outer Banks, observations were made from near Cape Hatteras heading north to Sandbridge, Virginia. There was minor, localized overwash. The Hatteras fishing pier had approximately 50 cm of sand in the parking lot, and nearby dunes looked somewhat scarped. At the Cape Hatteras lighthouse, there actually was accretion of sand. The protective sandbags around the base of the lighthouse were almost entirely covered, in stark contrast to before the storm when the sand bags were exposed. Undoubtedly, winds from the south reversed local longshore sediment transport and moved sand to the north and onshore in this vicinity. Low-growing shrubs near the lighthouse were plastered with a sand layer approximately 5 cm thick.
Only a few spots along NC-Highway 12 showed any impacts of the storm, including standing water and minor overwash. Evidence of high water was observed, however, in Salvo, where vegetation debris washed up almost 1 meter above road level. The new artificial frontal dune remained intact.
The fishing pier in Rodanthe had no damage, although the parking lot had approximately 10 cm of sand.
The Sandbridge subdivision of Virginia Beach, Virginia, suffered some minor wind damage. Although there was overwash up to 0.5 meters thick in places, it was not pervasive. There was also evidence that water reached a maximum of 1 meter above road level in places.
Where the Sandbridge seawall is continuous there was no overwash. As expected the very center part of the subdivision, where Sandbridge Road enters, had the thickest and most continuous overwash. This stretch is the main swimming beach in the community and has no houses or seawalls. Most of the nourished beach seemed to be intact, however.
Local newspaper accounts reported that Stumpy Point, on the mainland just south of Roanoke Island, had buildings that sustained 5 ft of flooding from Bonnie.
The town of Belhaven, North Carolina, is at an interesting location and bears monitoring during future storms. It is situated on the southern side of the peninsula (upland drainage divide between rivers) between the Albemarle Sound to the north, and the Pamlico River to the south. The Pungo River intersects the southern shoreline of the peninsula in a northwest-southeast trend, and Belhaven sits at the end of the indentation caused by the Pungo River. This area and the surrounding peninsula is an ideal site to monitor in the coming years because it has the proper orientation for a long fetch from the southeast and has historically been hit by hurricanes. Belhaven is especially at risk, since the community is remodeling and doubling the size of its hospital, which is on the waterfront at about 2 ft elevation. The hospital helipad has a bulkhead at one edge, and the entire complex is not elevated at all. While the entire town is designated on FEMA's Flood Insurance Rate Maps as "A" zones with no "V" zones, all of its docks and piers were torn to pieces by Bonnie. Virtually the entire shoreline is hardened in one way or another, and no wracklines were observed.
The opposite shore of the Pungo River that forms a peninsula with the Pamlico River to the south had extensive wracklines/debris lines. In a few waterfront neighborhoods located back from the main roads, the water level rose to at least 28 inches at 2-4 ft property elevation. One neighborhood had 6- to 8-foot-tall wracklines filled with construction debris that was trapped by underbrush. The properties between the water and debris was perfectly flat with minimal vegetation and extended over 1000 ft indicating that the surge was caught/baffled by thick underbrush.
In Washington, North Carolina, (which is higher in elevation and much farther inland than Belhaven) downtown buildings along the Pamlico River experienced approximately 3-foott flooding, which puts the surge/flooding at 8 ft. The area has roughly 5 ft of bulkhead/seawall along the waterfront, and again the water penetrated probably 1000 ft or more into town. One local property owner, who allowed access to his buildings to see the water lines, said he gets flooded in every storm, and that Fran had done the same thing. Wracklines elsewhere in town showed less penetration but could have been left behind by subsequent flooding from the rains.
Beaufort County was heavily impacted by Bonnie because local estuaries trend east/west. Although Belhaven has estuaries running in both east/west and north/south directions, it looks like the estuaries trending east/west caused more damage during Bonnie.
The goal of an ongoing FEMA-funded cooperative study between Duke University and the State University of West Georgia is to modify our coastal risk mapping technique into a Coastal Risk Assessment Method for the Mainland (CRAMM). It does not appear that Hurricane Bonnie gave any real answers about mainland assessment.
It is clear from Bonnie's impacts that we are unable to predict wind fields over land. What appeared on weather radar to be an extensive and pervasive wind field was, in fact, one that did little damage.
Bonnie must be considered a minor storm that did not negatively impact a large number of individual property owners or cause extensive claims for insurance companies. However, such storms still affect taxpayers because of infrastructure impacts such as downed power lines and debris removal, and we cannot claim that our society has learned many property damage mitigation lessons over the past decade because a Category 3 storm did little property damage.
Based on several post-storm field investigations, funded in part by the Natural Hazards Center, we have developed a coastal risk mapping technique that is undergoing continual revision (Bush et al., 1996; Webb, 1996; Pilkey et al., 1998). By evaluating the geomorphic, geologic, and oceanographic settings of coastal areas, zones of relative risk for property damage from hurricanes and other coastal storms are mapped. The maps have been well received by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and have been adopted by several coastal communities as part of their pre-storm mitigation and post-storm reconstruction plans. The next step is to modify the mapping technique to include the mainland shores behind barrier islands. The forecasted path of Hurricane Bonnie was such that significant mainland shore and estuarine shore impacts were anticipated. Actual impacts, however, were not severe.
Pilkey, Orrin H.; Neal, William J.; Riggs, Stanley R.; Webb, Craig A.; Bush, David M.; Pilkey, Deborah F.; Bullock, Jane; and Cowan, Brian A., 1998. The North Carolina Shore and It's Barrier Islands: Restless Ribbons of Sand. Durham, North Carolina: Duke University Press.
Webb, Craig Alexander, 1996. "Risk Mapping of North Carolina Barriers." Durham, North Carolina: Unpublished Master's Thesis, Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences.
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