Finding Order out of Chaos: Use of Chaos Theory to Examine the Processes of Policing during the Hurricane Katrina Disaster

Terri Adams, Howard University

This paper examines the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the organizational functions of the New Orleans Police Department (NOPD) during and immediately after the disaster using chaos theory. Traditional wisdom suggests that after a disaster, assessments of the functions of emergency response organizations should be done utilizing traditional models. However, most traditional models, such as the all-hazards approach are limited in their ability to assess the nuanced challenges faced in highly dynamic catastrophic events. Chaos theory provides a useful model for crisis situations (Murphy, 1996), since it is capable of identifying how systems are impacted by the unpredictable nature of disasters, as well as how organizations reorganize and find ways to function within the confines of chaotic conditions.

The study utilizes a qualitative research design, guided by the theoretical approach of chaos theory. Data was collected from media reports, congressional reports, scholarly publications, and key informant interviews (police personnel, political leaders, and mental health workers). These information sources were used to construct a summary of events, specifically the activities of the NOPD and the events of the storm. These data sources were compared and contrasted to create a timeline of events.

Using Information Technology to Support Disaster Response:Research and Practitioner Perspectives

Dale C. Brandenburg, Wayne State University
Allen W. Batteau, Wayne State University
Matthew W. Seeger, Wayne State University

Preparing for and responding to disasters is a complex undertaking. Among the issues confronting first-responders is how to integrate information technology tools to support disaster and emergency response. Today’s information technologies are typically complex, integrating communication, documentation, asset allocation, and other functions to produce coordinated response capabilities. Technology management for systems used in routine operations has received attention, but multi-user systems designed for crisis situations present unique challenges.

Appreciating the potential of these systems we invited 20 leading researchers and first responders to participate in a workshop, “The Networked Disaster.” The objectives were to build an understanding of the requirements for effectively implementing such systems through case studies of how these systems have been deployed. Discussions examined how deployment affected time-critical services. Participants reviewed conceptual issues; listened to “tales from the field;” and discussed research priorities, organizational issues, and technology deployment.

The most notable conclusion was that technology alone is an insufficient resource for disaster management, particularly if it comes at the expense of training, effective management strategy, and inter-functional relationships. While technological glitches can be repaired in routine operations, in a crisis they can turn an unfortunate event into a major disaster. The experts shared a conviction that information technology may avert such a catastrophe by improving disaster response, but that this potential depends on its effective implementation. This report is intended to contribute to increased understanding of the opportunities and limitations of advanced technology in coordinated disaster response.

The Application of Flood Loss Model in Flood-Prone Areas

Liang-Chun Chen, National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction
Hsin-Chi Li, National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction

This study presents a method of evaluating the household benefits of flood reduction planning using loss estimations under various precipitation return periods (accumulated probability). The Flood Reduction Plan in the Flood-prone Area was ratified by Taiwan’s Executive Yuan in 2006 and aims to ease the impact caused by flood hazards. Because this flood reduction plan is one of the biggest government projects in Taiwan, it is important to evaluate the benefit of the plan.

In Taiwan, flood loss is hard to estimate, especially in households. Households are generally more vulnerable to flooding in the most flood-prone areas. To estimate flood loss at the household level, this study developed a model based on household survey data and a definition of flood loss that is consistent with welfare economics. Household flood loss includes loss of human resources and man-made property such as furniture, vehicles, etc.

To increase usability, the loss model has been conveniently set up on a GIS platform and users can directly calculate the potential for household loss on the Web site. To test the model, we analyzed the Flood Reduction Plan in Hsin-Wen area, Chia-Yi County, Taiwan. The annual expected benefit per household from the plan is 16,678,393 NTD.

Health Vulnerability and Neighborhood Recovery? The Spatial Video Acquisition System (SVAS) as a Tool to Identify Patterns in the Built Environment

Andrew Curtis, University of Southern California
Jacqueline W. Mills, University of Southern California

Neighborhood-level post-disaster health investigations are acknowledged as challenging for a variety of reasons, not least of which is the means of systematically collecting data. There is a need for a spatial data collection approach that can be used to quickly and cost-efficiently to capture spatial data. The benefit of such an approach would not only help advance scientific and social scientific investigations in post-disaster environments, but also could be used to help prioritize health outreach in recovering neighborhoods.

Recent reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) warned about continuing health impacts to those who suffered during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, particularly those who live in and around temporary trailer homes. In response, we conducted a GPS-encoded video survey, the Spatial Video Acquisition System (SVAS), to assess the number of trailers in Holy Cross, the environmental stressors surrounding them, and visible indicators of recovery in the built environment.

Data analysis focuses on two specific questions. First, as of January 18, 2008, how many trailers remain in Holy Cross? Second, accepting findings presented in recent literature that living within a trailer in itself poses risks, what is the typical stress surface surrounding each trailer? From this, we hypothesize that any geographic variation in the reminder of the catastrophe within sight of the trailer, such as abandoned buildings and search and rescue graffiti, should serve as an indicator for the development of a metric prioritizing mental health outreach.

Why Exactly Do I Want to Evacuate? A Better Understanding of the True Risks of Not Evacuating from a Hurricane

Dr. Jeffrey Czajkowski, Austin College
Emily Kennedy, Austin College

Existing analysis of United States hurricane fatality data suggests, in general, the lethality of hurricanes hitting the U.S. has declined over time. However, the potential risk for amplified casualties has actually increased because of growing coastal populations. The recent fatality numbers from Hurricane Katrina provide a poignant example of this high risk reality. Consequently, the role that long-term mitigation efforts (e.g., stricter building codes) as well as more immediate hurricane-dependent efforts such as household protective actions (e.g., shuttering windows) and well-planned/coordinated evacuations play in this high risk context is critical to the continued minimization of hurricane-related fatalities.

The purpose of this research is to address limitations found in research that reports fatality and injury data. Such limitations include limited numbers of observations and selection bias due to evacuation patterns. We address these limitations by collecting (for the longest available time period) comprehensive fatality and injury data for hurricanes and tropical storms, as well as associated relevant characteristics such as population/socio-economic factors, evacuation variables, mitigation and infrastructure measures, forecasting technology, and location /physical characteristics.

This data was analyzed to better understand the true risks of not evacuating from a hurricane by specific location, including an attempt to capture the bias of evacuation from the collected fatality and injury data. A number of interesting analyses should result such as verification of the most vulnerable U.S. coastal areas in terms of fatalities and injuries.

Is Central Supervision the Answer? – A Personal Inquiry into the Importance of Communication for Safety and Security in a World of High-Tech

Edouard Dervichian, Swissphone Telecom AG

Since the events of September 11, 2001, the United States of America, like other countries, has been forced by the exposure to attack by their own technology to draw up laws on the basis of fear. Laws based on fear inevitably necessitate central supervision. The technical problem of central supervision is interoperability between disciplines and jurisdictions.

This study investigates interoperable technology in crisis activities since the establishment of the U.S. Wireless Ship Act of June 24, 1910, created for the protection of life and property at sea. It examines how communication problems differ from information sharing problems and how safety problems differ from security problems in assessing what officially established organizations can—and cannot—expect from interoperability between disciplines and jurisdictions.

It also examines how central institutions, like the Federal Communications Commission and the Department of Homeland Security are construing the problem of keeping the public safe and whether or not they are not they are destroying what they have been set up to protect with the interoperable supervision of safety and security.

The study reveals technology does not prevent abuse or guarantee users do not loose touch with reality.

Terrorism-Related Fear and Avoidance Behavior in a Multi-Ethnic Urban Population

David P. Eisenman, UCLA
Deborah Glik, UCLA
Michael Ong, UCLA
Qiong Zhou, UCLA

There are no studies examining how vulnerable groups perceive the Homeland Security Advisory System (HSAS) alert level. In a survey of the Los Angeles County population, we hypothesized that vulnerable groups would be most likely to perceive population-level risk as high, as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level, and would report greater worry about terrorism and avoidance of activities due to terrorism. Multivariate regression modeled correlates of worry and avoidance, including serious mental illness (SMI), disability, demographic factors, and estimated color-coded alert level.

Of those with SMI, 17.0% reported avoidance compared to 4.2% without SMI. Of Latinos, 26.1% reported worrying about terrorism compared to 14.1% of Whites, 7.9% of Latinos reported avoidance compared to 1.1% of Whites. 10.1% of non-citizens reported avoidance compared to 3.7% of citizens. SMI was associated with worry (AOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.7, 3.4) and avoidance (AOR 2.9, 95% CI 1.8, 4.7). Disability was associated with avoidance (AOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.6, 3.8). Latinos were more likely to worry (AOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.0, 1.8) and avoid (AOR 4.4, 95% CI 2.9, 14.3). African-Americans were more likely to avoid (AOR 6.4, 95% CI 2.9, 14.3). Non-citizens reported greater worry (AOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.0, 1.8) and avoidance (AOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3, 3.2). Overestimating the HSAS level was associated with worry (AOR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0, 1.8) and avoidance (AOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1, 3.3).

Vulnerable populations experience a disproportionate burden of the psychosocial impact of terrorism threats and our national response. Studies should further elucidate disparities in the burden associated with terrorism and terrorism policies.

Disaster Preparedness and its Association with Mental Health, Perceived General Health, and Disability

Chi-Hong Tseng, UCLA
Anna Long, UCLA
Jonathan Fielding, UCLA
Steven Asch, UCLA
David P. Eisenman, UCLA
Qiong Zhou, UCLA
Michael Ong, UCLA

We analyzed the relationship between health status (predictor variables: mental health, perceived health status, disability) and disaster preparedness (outcome variables: home disaster supplies, family communication plan) using data from a random-digit dial survey of the adult, non-institutionalized Los Angeles County population. Covariates included race/ethnicity, age, gender, education level, marital status, annual household income, and preferred language of interview. Multivariate regression modeled preparedness adjusting for covariates.

40.7% of persons with fair/poor health have disaster supplies compared to 53.1% of those with excellent health and 51.4% of those with very good health (p<0.001). 34.8% of persons with fair/poor health have an emergency plan compared to 44.8% of those with excellent health (p<0.01). 29.5% of persons who have a mental illness have supplies compared to 49.2% of those who don’t have a mental illness (p<0.001). Disability was not associated with supplies or plans.

Adjusting for the covariates, fair/poor health was associated with lower probability of supplies (AOR 0.66, 95% CI 0.48, 0.92) and an emergency plan (AOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50, 0.96). Mental illness was associated with lower supplies (AOR 0.67, 95% CI 0.48-0.93). Fair/poor health was associated with lower emergency planning (AOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50, 0.96). Mental illness was associated with lower supplies (AOR 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.95).

Our results add to our understanding of why persons with pre-existing health problems suffer disproportionately from disasters. Public health should collaborate with community partners to improve preparedness among the chronically ill and mentally ill.

Project PREP—Promotoras de Salud Improved Disaster Preparedness among Latino Immigrants

Steven Asch, UCLA
Deborah Glik, UCLA
Anna Long, UCLA
David P. Eisenman, UCLA
Steven Asch, UCLA
Deborah Glik, UCLA
Lupe Gonzalez, UCLA

Latinos suffer disproportionately from the consequences of disasters and remain the least prepared. Project PREP (Programa Para Responder a Emergencias con Preparación) is a community-based, participatory research program to improve disaster preparedness using lay health promoters (promotoras de salud).

We employed a randomized, longitudinal cohort design with two arms. Participants were randomized to either the experimental “platica” group (a small group discussion led by a promotora de salud) or the comparison “media” group (culturally-targeted, written materials in Spanish and English on preparedness, developed specifically for Project PREP and mailed to the home). Low-income, immigrant Latinos were enrolled using Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) for recruitment of this difficult to reach population. Two telephone assessments (baseline/pre-intervention and 3-months post-intervention) were conducted.

The study had 242 Latino immigrants living in Los Angeles County enrolled; 187 participants completed a 3-month follow-up. Participants in both the platica and media groups reported significantly increased preparedness from pre-intervention to post-intervention with a greater proportion of both arms reporting they stockpiled water, food, radio, batteries, flashlights, first-aid kits, pet-food, blankets, rain-gear, cash, and written family communication plans (chi-square test; p< 0.05). The platica participants demonstrated larger improvements in stockpiling water, food, blankets, and written family communications (p=0.002) compared to media group. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental test of a culturally-targeted, disaster preparedness program and the first randomized trial of a disaster preparedness program generally. Future studies should develop and test scaleable versions of Project PREP.

Preparing the Community: The San Francisco Bay Area Preparedness Assessment Project

During 2007–2008, the San Francisco Bay Area Super Urban Area Security Initiative (SUASI) provided funding to two national emergency management consulting firms, CirclePoint and ICF, to review and catalog effective characteristics and implementation approaches of international, national, and local citizen preparedness programs for replication in 10 Bay Area counties. The project assessed public education campaigns, best practices, and program characteristics and provided program recommendations. The program categories were social networks, mass outreach, citizen preparedness training programs, and citizen preparedness teams.

Thirteen in-depth national interviews were conducted with subject matter experts, field practitioners, and national policy experts along with 11 informal international e-mail based interviews. Approximately 470 literature references were studied for best practices. Locally, the team examined 261 programs, conducted 12 in-depth interviews, held 13 focus groups, and conducted and an online survey.

The eight-month project resulted in a Highlights Reports and the Community Preparedness Program Guide, and Best Practices from National and International Perspectives. The project confirmed existing concepts and identified new insights for engaging the community, creating sustainability and moving people to take action. Examples include using interns, age-appropriate technologies, integrated community programming, innovative messaging and outreach methodologies, and measurement tools. Other key points include partnering with animal disaster specialists and appointing program managers with specific volunteer management expertise and field disaster experience.

Disaster Resilience in Community-Based Organizations: Practice-Driven Routines as Strategy for Organizational Change and Learning

June Gin, Fritz Institute

Despite growing awareness of community organizations’ role in disaster relief for vulnerable populations, there has been a dearth of innovation in methods to systematically strengthen organizational response capabilities. The Fritz Institute’s Bay Area Preparedness Initiative launched the Disaster Resilient Organization (DRO) program to address such concerns through training and standards development. This initiative strives to define common standards for resilient organizations and creates a certification process which will enable organizations to signal their capabilities to potential partners, thereby enhancing legitimacy, transparency, and collaborative links within the regional system.

Incorporating practices and thinking to enhance disaster resilience in organizations requires integration of DRO learning at multiple levels—making and creating organizational cultures. The literature on organizational learning and change is useful for understanding the lessons of the DRO pilot program. The DRO program endeavors to import a set of routines into organizations, facilitating a collective transformation process and achieving a set of common standards as a signal to multiple audiences.

Organization theory provides a framework for assessing tools used in the DRO program which include incentives, technical assistance, training and learning, and manager engagement. Selznick’s theory of institutionalization focuses on how cultures and practices become routine and formalized within organizational norms and cultures. Cultural-cognitive theorists DiMaggio and Powell emphasize the role of agency, pointing to the critical role of change-agents and entrepreneurs within the organization, as well as outside intervention, on organization culture and learning. Evaluating the effectiveness of the DRO prototype will offer insights in non-profit management and lead to institutional change.

Multi-Jurisdictional Cooperation in Hazard Mitigation Planning

Andrea Jackman, Texas Tech University
Mario G. Beruvides, Texas Tech University

Under the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 and the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s subsequent Interim Final Rule, local and tribal governments were required to create and gain approval for a Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) to be eligible for hazard mitigation funding. An analysis was conducted in November 2007 to determine the level of approval for HMPs for local jurisdictions across the country and it was found over 90 percent of approved HMPs were completed through multi-jurisdictional entities and cooperation.

With rare exception, literature in emergency management has focused mostly on local, state, and federal government. An implicit assumption in most discussion on government is that “local” means the city, and occasionally, county level. The success rate of county, inter-county, and councils of government (COG) in the HMP process, however, has arguably led to an increased need to understand the function of these entities and relationships in disaster management.

In this paper, a simple theoretical model for disaster management is proposed, such that multi-jurisdictional governmental entities collaborate and are incorporated across the four phases of emergency management. To support the model and attempt to understand the findings of the pilot study on national mitigation grant eligibility, an economic model is presented for the South Plains region of West Texas, where the benefits of multi-jurisdictional HMP authorship have been shown to greatly outweigh the costs. An overall discussion of the economic and social role of multi-jurisdictional governmental entities is presented.

Risk and Benefit-Cost Analysis: Interdependency in Hazard Mitigation Planning

Andrea Jackman, Texas Tech University
Mario G. Beruvides,Texas Tech University

Opportunity costs in economics are used to represent the true cost of an activity by including the money lost by not choosing a different (alternative) activity. Ways to define opportunity cost vary slightly, but the concept remains the same: choosing to invest money in one option will eliminate the possibility of using that money elsewhere.

Because of the need to maximize public or social benefit, governmental economic analysis typically uses benefit-cost analysis to select the most beneficial project. Incorporating opportunity costs into the cost portion of the analysis allows for more accurate projections when comparing competing projects. To estimate the value of projects over time, present, future, or annual worth analysis can be incorporated into the benefit-cost analysis.

The difficulty in using benefit-cost ratio analysis is quantifying the benefits (in some cases dis-benefits) and costs of a given project. Using a basic economic model, it is shown for Hazard Mitigation Planning, as mandated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Interim Final Rule (44 CFR Parts 201 and 206), the costs can be determined. Using benefit-cost analysis, it is therefore possible to calculate the necessary benefits that must be received by the planning jurisdiction(s). Opportunity costs also can be included in the cost portion of the analysis.

In this paper, we present an economic model using the South Plains region of west Texas as a case study to demonstrate the potential viability of this type of analysis.

Voices from the PyeongChang Flood of 2006

Manjae Kim, Kangnung National University

Although floods and typhoons are common natural hazards in Korea, seasonal rain in 2006 caused severe damage resulting in mass evacuations and nearly 50 deaths. Following the floods, the Korean government designated 18 special disaster recovery zones enabling flood victims to receive special compensation by the government. Those special areas included seven counties and districts in Gangwon Province, such as Inje and PyeongChang.

This paper provides an official account of data collected on behalf of the Taiwanese government and includes social aspects of the disaster. The preliminary findings presented here are based on on in-depth interviews and surveys. Some of the findings are as follows:

1. Civil servants and residents were not prepared for the floods, partly due to a lack of previous experience with severe weather events that lead to a misperception of the situation or disbelief of warnings.

2. Residents were discontent with the flood response largely because their perception of inequitably distributed resources in comparison with fellow community members.

3. In some severely affected communities, community leaders described changes in relationships between residents and reported that some had become “selfish.”

4. Because of a lack of emergency managers, village representatives took on a great deal of responsibility for evacuating residents, distributing resources, reporting damages, helping civil servants evaluate damage, and taking charge of community recovery.

5. Interviewees also reported varied perceptions about volunteers. While some were seen to be very helpful, others were perceived to impose additional burdens on flood victims.

Localized Flood Warning System of Mumbai

Sudhir Kumar, India Department of Civil Engineering

India is vulnerable to natural and man-made disasters. Damages and losses due to disasters have increased numerously. Disaster not only eats away development gains, but development funds are diverted for recovery projects.

One of the strategies to reduce the impact of disasters is to put in a reliable, appropriate and timely early warning system. In most hazards, there is period of early warning. Early warning systems for hydrometeorological disasters such as floods and cyclones can be very effective due to the substantial time lag between warning and disaster impact. Early warning holds further relevance in the context of urban flooding, where accurate, timely warning would be immensely helpful in reducing the disaster impact.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is the primary agency for warnings about cyclone and rainfall. Commonly, rainfall warnings issued by IMD are macro in scope, but urban centers require localized, real-time warning.

Recently, the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai installed Automated Weather Stations for localized flood warning. This system was put to test during the last monsoon season. This paper tries to capture information about the functionalities of the newly installed system, including its application and links with response measures.

Additionally, this paper examines the feasibility of replicating the system from the perspective of available human resources and financial viability. It also examines a comparable system for localized flood warning based on different parameters.

Assessing the Loss Estimation Methodology Used by the National Weather Service to Produce Damage Data

Jeffrey K. Lazo, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Nathaniel F. Bushek, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Emily K. Laidlaw, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Loss data on hazard events can provide valuable information to both researchers and decision makers. Storm Data, the National Weather Service’s database, provides a comprehensive collection of loss data for all U.S. weather-related hazards, however, little is known about the reliability of this data. There has been limited analysis of the process used to generate Storm Data loss data and even that is largely focused on statistical comparison of the data produced by a single region. Outside of those collecting the data, there is little understanding of what sources are used, what types of damages are included in damage estimates, when and how values are adjusted, the sufficiency of time and training, and how confident meteorologists feel estimating damages.

To answer some of these questions, we are surveying all 123 National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices. The survey addresses issues such as how much variability exists in data collection efforts, resources and skills, and whether there may be more accurate estimates of one type of weather hazard as opposed to another. Through this information, we hope to identify potential data quality concerns in Storm Data loss data. We also hope to help identify efforts that could be undertaken to ensure the reliability and consistency of damage data. In this paper, we present the survey planning efforts and preliminary results, if available, along with an overview of the Storm Data data generation process in hopes of facilitating a discussion on the importance of reliable loss data with respect to its end uses.

NIMS in Rural America: Implications for a National Emergency Management System

Jessica Leifeld, North Dakota State University

In this paper, we report on research conducted in 2007 on how rural emergency managers at the local level understand and employ the National incident Management System (NIMS). Using findings from face-to-face interviews with county emergency managers in three states, this article focuses on research findings. The data reveal the majority of emergency managers interviewed interpret NIMS in a generally positive manner; however, they do so with considerable qualification.

Emergency managers recognize their interpretation of NIMS plays a role in how they comply with and implement NIMS; however, it was discovered it is not the emergency managers’ interpretation which determines compliance and implementation as much as factors related to local reality. The unique amalgamation of emergency manager interpretations and local reality produce large variations in NIMS compliance and implementation—no two emergency managers and no two counties are exactly alike.

Therefore, though the federal government mandates its expectations and standards for emergency management through NIMS, both people and aspects of place dictate the mandate’s interpretation and implementation. Based on these findings from research, implications for emergency management are discussed and suggestions are made for future research and policy.

A Look at the Economic Impact of Tornado-Induced Damage in Tulia, Texas

Maribel Martinez, Texas Tech University
Bradley Ewing, Amarillo/Potter/Randall Office of Emergency Management

Tornado damage produces an immediate negative effect on some business operations. Direct business damage, as well as disruption of and damage to utilities and transportation systems are all factors that can contribute to business loss. On the other hand, positive economic effects can arise as a result of construction or the addition of more-economically suitable business operations. Studies of the overall negative and positive economic effects of tornadoes on various economic sectors in small to mid-size communities, is sparse. Smaller communities often lack the political and economic influence of larger cities when it comes to preparing for and recovering from an event; thus indicating that studies of disaster-related economic effects could help them secure federal aid and pave the way toward faster recovery.

This presentation will focus on the economic effects of tornadoes which hit the community of Tulia, Texas on April 21, 2007. The business district of the 5,100-resident community of was heavily impacted, including the destruction of the only grocery store in the county. Of the 29 businesses that were heavily damaged or destroyed, 24 of them were declared a total loss. In this presentation, we will discuss the economic impact analysis tool used to define the community of Tulia’s economic consequences. This discussion will help to provide insight about which industries suffered the most and least and the overall negative and positive economic effects following the tornadoes.

Challenges in GIS Utilization for Rural Emergency Managers

Maribel Martinez, Texas Tech University
Andrea Jackman, Texas Tech University

The South Plains and Panhandle regions of Texas are comprised mostly of small rural communities with limited resources to train for and deal with hazards and disasters. Smaller towns often find themselves at a disadvantage when policies requiring more comprehensive emergency planning are implemented and often lack the political and economic influence to obtain federal aid when disaster does strike.

As a tool for mitigation, response, and recovery, geospatial programs such as Google Earth and GIS are highly regarded and often recommended for emergency preparedness and incident response. However, few jurisdictions at the local or regional level in these smaller communities have the necessary amount of funding or trained personnel to make the use of these programs a reality. Additionally, datasets currently available are often inaccurate because of the challenges of obtaining and verifying “small town” records.

This presentation will focus on the difficulties of obtaining, utilizing, and verifying data as experienced in the West Texas area where 48 out of 54 jurisdictions have fewer than 5,000 residents. Possible solutions and additional recommendations on how rural communities can maximize what little access to geospatial technology they might have also will be proposed. Additionally, one rural community dataset obtained for the West Texas region will be presented and future expansion of the project will be discussed.

Differences in Perception of Building Damage Severity:Critical Need to Transfer Knowledge from Engineers to Non-Engineers

Cindy L. Menches, University of Texas at Austin
Arthur B. Markman, University of Texas at Austin
Ryan J. Jones, University of Texas at Austin

In the hours immediately following a disaster, communities call upon volunteers to perform initial assessments of damage to homes, businesses, and infrastructure and to make critical judgments about the severity of destruction. These volunteers are drawn from disaster relief organizations, citizen action groups, and public agencies; however, these assessors typically are not experts in building construction or structural engineering and, as a result, their ability to translate observable visual damage (such as missing portions of a roof) into an accurate damage description of the overall building is highly variable. In contrast, engineers typically produce significantly more accurate assessments. Consequently, there is a critical need to understand the decision-making process of engineer and non-engineer damage assessors and to develop strategies for transferring expert engineering assessment knowledge to non-experts.

Recent research conducted by members of the civil engineering and psychology communities has identified significant differences in how engineers and non-engineers perceive the severity of damage to buildings. The purpose of the study was to investigate differences in assessments of building damage severity using a novel computer-based environment. The participants assessed damage using 3-D models of residential structures and the results were compelling. Overall, 56 percent of the non-engineers misclassified the severity of the damage, with 40 percent classifying severe damage as moderate and 60 percent classifying moderate damage as severe. In contrast, 80 percent of the engineers correctly classified the severity. A follow-up study is planned to develop tools and training for effectively transferring engineering damage assessment knowledge to non-engineers.

Role of Safe Space in Disaster Response

Biplob Kanti Mondal, Save the Children Sweden Denmark
Kausik Das, Unnayan Shahojagi Team (UST) Bangladesh
Md. Mostafizur Rahaman, Save the Children Sweden Denmark

This paper analyzes the relationship between child protection and disaster in the period following a disaster. The results presented suggest children suffered from abuse, neglect, and exploitation in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh because of a lack of social structure to protect them.

This study assesses the protection mechanisms adapted by one community after Sidr made landfall on November 15, 2007. The government of Bangladesh reported that 3,363 people were killed and more than 8.9 million people were affected—40 percent were children. Other effects included damage to houses, livestock, crops, institutions, roads, and embankments. This study’s main concern was to evaluate how “safe space” contributed to protecting children in the post-disaster period.

Study methods included face-to-face interviews and focus groups with members of disaster-affected communities, including children and civil society. We analyzed a model known as “STOP” (a framework for child protection in emergencies: S – space, structure, T – trust, time, talking, O – opportunity to play, organized play, P - play and partnership with parents) and its effectiveness in protecting children from physical harm and psychosocial distress. From this we encourage mainstreaming STOP into education practices and developing social safety nets to include child rights where children actively participate in every step of disaster response activities.

Interactions Among Flood Predictions, Decisions, and Outcomes: A Synthesis of Three Cases

Rebecca E. Morss, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Hydrometeorological observations and predictions are often used to complement other flood mitigation measures in decisions leading up to and during floods. Understanding the role played by predictions in flood events can help forecasters provide more useful information and decision makers use information more effectively as part of a broader flood loss reduction strategy. This presentation examines the interactions among hydrometeorological information, decisions, and flood-related outcomes by analyzing three cases of severe local flooding in the United States: the Red River flood of April-May 1997 in Grand Forks, ND; the Fort Collins, CO flood in July 1997; and the Pescadero Creek, CA flood in February 1998.

The three floods occurred in different hydrometeorological and societal circumstances, had different types of hydrometeorological information available, and had different societal impacts, providing an opportunity to compare and contrast lessons learned. All three communities had previously experienced significant flooding and each flood was embedded in a larger space- and time-scale hydrometeorological event. Thus, the interpretation and use of hydrometeorological information in each case were affected by previous experience, and the decisions and outcomes in each case were embedded within longer-term contexts. Issues explored include the interplay between the floods and their hydrometeorological and societal context, the use of predictions in flood fighting and evacuation decisions, the role of predictive uncertainty and confidence in decisions, and how forecasts can and cannot help reduce flood losses.

Hurricane Wilma, Utility Disruption, and Household Well-Being

Pallab Mozumder, Florida International University

Hurricane Wilma (October 24, 2005) set a distinctive trend of social vulnerability as it caused the largest disruption of electrical service ever experienced in Florida. Over 6 million residents in South Florida were without electricity after its landfall. According to media reports, 98 percent of the area lost power. Disruption of water supply also was a major issue and people lived for days without access to power and potable water.

In the wake of hurricane Wilma, a household-level phone survey was conducted by researchers at the International Hurricane Research Center in Miami. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of registered voters in three South Florida counties (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach). Respondents were asked to document pre-hurricane preparation efforts and post-hurricane impacts. Also included was a diverse set of socio- economic questions regarding utility disruption and whether the household evacuated to a shelter. Living without electricity and water was identified as a major issue by survey respondents. Using a Random Utility Model (RUM), we evaluate the impact of utility disruption on household well-being based on the survey data. Findings highlight the need for significant investment to enhance the capacity of rapid utility restoration after a hurricane event in the context of South Florida.

The Difficulty with Disaster Recovery

Laura Olson, George Washington University
John R. Harrald, George Washington University
Carol S. Pearson, University of Maryland

The majority of research on disaster recovery focuses on individuals or families as the primary units of study. This paper will instead focus on the resilience and recovery of nonprofit organizations. The basis for this paper is an eight-month action research project sponsored by the American Red Cross and carried out in southeast Louisiana. The project objective was to create an effective, repeatable resilience-building model that could be used by other nonprofit organizations impacted by major disasters. Goals of this project included producing complex, systemic change, promoting community development, and maximizing the knowledge and skills of organizational members through a participatory process.

The project brought together natural and social science experts who helped design resilience-building strategies that would enable nonprofit organizations and their personnel to experience beneficial change in the face of the long-term recovery processes. This effort to facilitate resiliency addressed issues such as the impact of Hurricane Katrina on organizational functioning and personal healing for individual staff members. The results included organizational change and a new identity for the local chapter, which adapted to fit an altered environment.

The training and research methods employed by this project allowed participants to develop goals and activities throughout the process. Strategies included capacity building to strengthen organizational and individual effectiveness, analysis of group dynamics and group processes, and the development of a collectively agreed-upon change agenda. This model for nonprofit recovery post-disaster is meant to function as an essential part of any community’s reconstruction toolkit.

Planning for Transmission Pipeline Hazards: A Study of Emergency Managers and Planning Directors in North Carolina’s Piedmont Triad Metropolitan Area

Anna Osland, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Transmission pipelines are the safest method to transport many hazardous chemicals such as natural gas and petroleum products. However, nationwide transmission pipeline accident reports suggest urbanization in close proximity to transmission pipelines is a leading cause of pipeline accidents—primarily in the form of third-party or construction accidents. This project works to evaluate differences in knowledge between planners and emergency managers about current and potential development in close proximity of transmission pipelines and investigate how planners and emergency managers prepare for and mitigate hazards from transmission pipelines.

Data for this paper were collected through paper surveys and semi-structured interviews with 26 planning directors and 28 emergency managers in the Greensboro-Winston-Salem, North Carolina metropolitan area. I use descriptive statistics to analyze survey data and qualitative analysis to analyze interview data. The results of the study suggest both planning directors and emergency managers display knowledge about pipeline locations within their community.

Emergency managers demonstrate a higher confidence in ability to address preparation for pipeline ruptures and use a larger variety of sources for obtaining information on transmission pipeline hazards than planning directors. Interview data suggest differences in techniques used for addressing pipeline hazards between emergency managers and planners. Emergency managers were likely to mention use of regional networks, specific training addressing transmission pipeline hazards, or interactions with pipeline companies. Planners often had little knowledge of any action taken by their jurisdiction, cited specific areas where action was lacking, or mentioned use of growth management tools.

Role of Information in Disaster Management

A. D. Pawar, Sinngad Institute of Technology
G.R. Patil, G.H. Raisoni College of Engineering
S.B. More, Shivnagar Vidya Prasarak Mandal College of Engineering
Y.L. Bhirud, Shivnagar Vidya Prasarak Mandal College of Engineering

Information is power. In almost every disaster, incident, accident, or tragedy, the media will be involved. There is a relationship between information and disaster management. It has now become essential to recognize this relationship and become prepared; such preparation is part of an effective disaster management process.

Communication practices and the exchange of information play a key role in the realization of effective risk reduction activities. Data availability is crucial to successfully monitoring hazards and assessing impending risks. Effective information management and communication processes are also instrumental for early warning systems and effective mitigation efforts; however, disaster information involves more than just data. Several interconnecting steps are typically required to generate these types of action-oriented strategy.

Beyond the technical aspects of information systems, more attention needs to be devoted to the human dimension of communication, with both policies and facilities that encourage community-based approaches to information processing and dissemination. This paper intends to focus on information as a key factor in disaster risk reduction.

Arranging Fragility Within Systems

Allan McDougall, Infracritical, Inc.
Bob Radvanovsky, Infracritical, Inc.

This paper conveys the importance of properly defining and establishing terms and definitions determining methods of failure of systems or infrastructure to the general public. The establishment of such definitions is a crucial and elemental piece of the overall puzzle about infrastructure security. More importantly, the security of our critical infrastructures depends on an accurate method of describing how these systems fail. This paper hopes to address several of those issues.

The concept of fragility is nothing new to the engineering community, as it has been used to determine the fragileness of bridges and spans for civil and architectural engineers.  However, fragility can be implemented at a more strategic level, thereby determining the weak points of any given system based on user-defined criteria and metrics against known hazards and threats in the environment.

The objective of this document is to provide a definition and criteria set of definitions outlining the overall perspective of what is fragility at a strategic level, how it is represented, and why it is important to user communities. The document defines and outlines a definition of fragility and poses a series of reasons necessitating the provision of reliable systems based upon this factor.

The December 26, 2004, Tsunami—A Stricken Community Responds on Phi Phi Don Island, Thailand

Robert C. Reynolds, Krabi Consulting

Over the past decade, research on humanitarian and disaster relief has given greater recognition to the abilities of grassroots and local groups to provide effective local relief after a sudden-onset disaster. However, few studies have been made to document specific grassroots relief efforts. Most independent post-disaster assessments have focused on inappropriate aid and misguided relief agency and government projects. As criticisms of many relief programs mounted, especially after the widely publicized tsunami of December 26, 2004, some international relief organizations took a more participatory approach to their relief aid planning. Yet, most relief organizations provided little insight into the role of the local populations in planning and recovery in the post-project impact studies. The December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami provides an example of how a severely stricken community responds to disaster with little or no outside help.

In the following study of Phi Phi Don Island in Krabi Province, we examine the socio-economic and political environment in which a small, but well-known, island community was neglected while other areas of the country and region received massive amounts of aid. This study documents how local inhabitants created and organized their own relief programs without the aid of international non-governmental organizations. This study provides insight into the factors that allow grassroots recovery to be successful and may serve as a template for other local communities to follow.

Emerging Themes in Sustainable Disaster Recovery: Energy Efficiency and Alternative Energy

Jack L. Rozdilsky, University of North Texas

On May 4, 2007, Greensburg, Kansas was catastrophically destroyed by an EF-5 tornado. As the disaster put the small town’s future in question, town leaders and residents decided not only to rebuild, but to attempt to recover as a national model of an environmentally friendly city. Other disaster-stricken small towns such as Soldiers Grove, Wisconsin and Valmeyer, Illinois also have used energy efficiency and alternative energy as a part of their disaster recovery efforts. The use of green-building techniques, solar energy, wind power, strict environmental rebuilding standards and other earth friendly projects are becoming more common in long-term recovery efforts.

Common themes emerging in these types of disaster recoveries are:

• Before the disaster, a small town is in need of some sort of revitalization.
• A catastrophic disaster strikes and rebuilding efforts attempt to incorporate aspects of sustainable development.
• Environmentally friendly practices are generally seen as contributing to that revitalization.
• Alternative energy and energy efficiency become a primary method of sustainable redevelopment implementation.

Sometimes, however, there are difficulties in integrating green recovery planning into already complicated disaster recovery schemes. By looking at both past and present cases of disaster recoveries, this paper will draw conclusions concerning the evolution of the trends in sustainable disaster recovery, specifically concluding that energy-related concerns are a unifying theme being incorporated into sustainable disaster recovery efforts.

Impacts of Hurricane Katrina Evacuees on Critical Infrastructure in Baton Rouge, LA

Nicholas Santella, Southern Methodist University
Kyle Parks, Southern Methodist University
Laura J. Steinberg, Southern Methodist University

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, many for an extended period of time. As a result, the challenges of meeting the needs of displaced people have been a focus of interest for those preparing for future large scale emergencies. East Baton Rouge Parish (EBRP) LA, about 80 miles northwest of New Orleans, received approximately 200,000 evacuees immediately after Hurricane Katrina. This study quantifies the impacts that this influx of population had on several critical infrastructure services (roads, hospitals, police, fire, EMS, telephone, electricity) over a period of six months subsequent to Hurricane Katrina.

For this study, we measured trip duration and traffic speed on major roadways of EBRP; electricity demand due to weather conditions and population increases; telephone service, including wireline and wireless services; the demand for emergency services, including police and EMS call rates; and hospital admissions and service rates.

In general, the infrastructure in Baton Rouge proved resilient to the sudden population increase. In some cases, the permanent infrastructure was supplemented by portable equipment or temporary expedients, allowing systems to adjust fairly quickly to the new stresses. Infrastructure managers in Baton Rouge were able to respond effectively to the need for increased capacity, finding ways to exploit the “slack” in their systems. However, this was done under the immediate pressure of a burgeoning population needing services—a more orderly and efficient deployment of services might have been possible with pre-planning for an evacuation from New Orleans.

Preparedness as Recovery: Transforming Current Paradigms in Post-disaster Recovery and Redevelopment Planning

Brian Silva, New York City Office of Emergency Management

Within disaster-related research, no phase of the disaster lifecycle has been studied less than recovery.  Because of multiple issues, government, community and business groups are often more focused on preparedness and response.  In the same way that mitigation measures are difficult to implement due to cost and apathy, recovery suffers from many of the same issues. 

However, as issues of migration, population growth, and resource limitations rapidly change our environment, a revised framework has become necessary to effectively face major disasters and catastrophes.  By placing a new emphasis on collaborative recovery and redevelopment planning as a means of dealing with these issues, communities can transform themselves from victims of catastrophe, to bulwarks of resiliency and of sustainability. 

While current incarnations of post disaster recovery planning attempt to address some of these issues, they still contain major pitfalls.  This work proposes a more advanced paradigm that engages the community in a meaningful manner, is adequately supported and incentivized with resources, and emphasizes process and product equally in order to overcome many of the challenges within the disaster cycle.

False Alarms, Tornado Warnings, and Tornado Casualties

Kevin M. Simmons, Austin College
Daniel Sutter, University of Texas-Pan American

This paper extends prior research on the societal value of tornado warnings to the impact of false alarms. Intuition suggests that false alarms will reduce the response to warnings, yet little evidence of a “false alarm problem” has been unearthed. This paper exploits differences in the false alarm ratio across the U.S. to test for a false alarm effect, in a regression model of tornado casualties from 1986 to 2004. We find a statistically significant and large false alarm effect; tornadoes which occur in an area with a higher false alarm ratio kill and injure more people, everything else constant. The effect is consistent across false alarm ratios defined over different geographies and time intervals. A one standard deviation increase in the false alarm ratio increases expected fatalities by between 12 percent and 29 percent and expected injuries by between 14 percent and 32 percent. The reduction in the national tornado false alarm ratio over the period reduced fatalities by 4 percent to 11 percent and injuries by 4 to 13 percent. The casualty effects of false alarms and warning lead times are approximately equal in magnitude.

Developing Flood Scenarios and Adaptive Strategies based on Climate Change Models for the Rohini Basin, India and Nepal

Sarah Opitz-Stapleton, Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International
Marcus Moench, Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International

The Rohini Basin, part of the larger Gangetic Basin straddling the border of India and Nepal, is home to some of the poorest populations in the world. Social, political and economic factors, in combination with geography, make this basin particularly vulnerable to flooding during the monsoon months. During the 2007 monsoon, over 17 million people were adversely affected by floods through habitat loss, destruction of villages, inundation of cropland and livelihood disruption.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) estimates that due to climate change, average precipitation in the Ganga Basin will increase approximately 20 percent, as will heavy precipitation events, enhancing flooding hazards. Such information is of too broad a scale to be used in planning and implementing adaptation measures, partially due to uncertainty about potential changes at regional to local scales. To effectively support adaptation measures, information about potential climate change impacts is needed at smaller scales. Data paucity in this region makes it difficult to employ numerical downscaling techniques. Therefore, a robust stochastic technique was developed to generate precipitation ensembles and used to test climate change scenarios at the river basin level.

This paper highlights ongoing work by ISET-International, ISET-Nepal, Winrock-India and IIASA to develop a stochastic downscaling technique to derive precipitation ensembles for climate change impact studies in the Rohini Basin. Potential precipitation scenarios are tested in a flood model of the basin, the outputs of which are utilized in a cost-benefit analysis of various hard and soft resiliency adaptation measures being considered for the basin.

Explication of Role and Status of NGOs in Earthquake Stricken Regions: The Case Study of Iran’s Lorestan Province

Reza Valizadeh, Islamic Azad University
Reza Veici, Payame Noor University

Nongovernmental organizations are part of the triangle of society established and expanded as nonprofit organizations, charity organizations, anthropological organizations and volunteer organizations. These organizations work cooperatively to provide necessary services to those who require assistance.

Iran is prone to destructive earthquakes and is susceptible to aggravated damages caused by mismanagement of human resources in the wake of disaster. Damages might be alleviated through cooperative efforts between governmental and NGOs whereby NGOs use their capacities to participate in disaster response efforts and assist in public education.

This study reviews the role and status of internal and external NGOs in the relief and reconstruction operations of earthquake-stricken regions in Iran’s Lorestan province. We explore issues of status and capacity-building potential of NGOs for future earthquake events. The current study draws upon qualitative interviews with representatives from NGOs who were active in the Lorestan earthquake and post-earthquake reconstruction efforts. The findings show that none of the exiting internal NGOs had any presence whatsoever during or after the earthquake in the region. The organizations which were active in relief operations and established representation in the Lorestan province include UNICEF, OPEC Fund and UNDP. We probe the reasons behind this non-significant presence of NGOs and explore the role and significance of internal and external NGOs in earthquake-stricken regions.

Earthquake Disaster Mitigation through Capacity Building in Local Communities: A Bottom-up Approach

Reza Valizadeh, Islamic Azad University

Resilient communities can be compared with bamboo. When resilient communities are affected by a hazard (which then becomes a disaster), they are able to spring back, readily recover, and adjust easily. Disaster resiliency results from disaster preparedness planning which includes the active participation of community members.

Planning for disaster resiliency should also include sustainable measures to mitigate the impact of natural disasters Sustainability occurs largely as a result of mitigation and preventive measures which are outlined in a comprehensive plan, taking into consideration every aspect of community existence including public safety, good health, and robust socio-economic life. This is why disaster reduction needs to be successfully incorporated into the broader goals of sustainable development to enable the building of disaster resilient communities.

Natural disasters provide a clear example of people living in conflict with their environment. Every year natural disasters cause enormous human, economic, social and environmental losses in many countries. However, there are proven approaches that could, if broadly implemented, significantly reduce the impact of natural disasters. These approaches require integration between social sciences and engineering as well as effective partnerships with many parties that have a stake in reducing losses. The bottom-up approach is aimed at enabling societies at risk to become engaged in conscious efforts at risk management and risk reduction. It involves the adoption of suitable regulatory, legal measures, institutional reform, improved analytical and methodological capabilities, financial planning, education and awareness.

Avalanches and the of Role of GIS, Remote Sensing, and Information Technologies in Their Management, and Future Challenges: A Case Study of Indian Avalanches

Abhinav Walia, Risk Management
Moutushi Dey

The Indian subcontinent has a highly diversified range of natural features. The Himalayas are young fold mountains. The phenomenon of stress release (earthquake) is very common. Coupled with the uncertain monsoon winds, the region is highly prone to natural disasters. The Great Himalayan mountain range routinely experiences a large number of disastrous avalanches. Due to high frequency of avalanches and amount of snow deposited, the damage caused to forests, human communities and built structures can be colossal. Avalanches have taken their toll in both the Great Himalayan and Pir Panjal ranges and will continue to cause disasters in the future.

In this paper we discuss the uses of GIS, remote sensing technologies, and ICT for avalanche studies. We argue that these technologies are useful for mapping and spatial data analysis and will thereby increase the effectiveness of response and recovery. Furthermore, through the use of GIS, remote sensing and ICT land planning authorities will be better equipped to prevent buildings being constructed in areas that are endangered by avalanches.

Investigating Recovery Patterns in Post-Disaster Urban Settings: Utilizing Geotechnology to Understand Post-Hurricane Katrina Recovery in New Orleans, Louisiana

Steven M. Ward, Louisiana State University
Michael Leitner, Louisiana State University
John Pine, Louisiana State University

This study seeks to improve upon current disaster research in the discipline of geography by expanding the geographic study of hazards beyond the event itself and into the recovery process. A review of current disaster based literature in geography will illustrate a severe paucity of comprehensive research by geographers in the arena of disaster recovery.

It appears as if the majority of established researchers in this field are content to focus their efforts on the issues preceding disasters, as well as the immediate response to, and physical results of disaster events. The responsibility of understanding the topic of recovery has thus far been the primary focus of researchers in the fields of social science and public administration. This void in hazards geography can be narrowed by utilizing geospatial technologies, qualitative analysis, and spatial modeling to develop a greater understanding of the geographic variables guiding recovery in a post-disaster urban environment.

Using the City of New Orleans, Louisiana, as the overall project area, this research will interpolate the recovery fabric of the metropolitan area through the use of traditional and non-traditional indicators of recovery. We hypothesize that the spatial assessment of recovery in New Orleans will allow for the identification of unbiased indicators of recovery, determine the most appropriate scale for conducting a spatially based evaluation, and produce a tool which can be used within a local program evaluation framework in order to refine the understanding of the city’s hazardscape and improve mitigation efforts across the nation.

Evacuation Decision Making and Behavior between Residents and Mobility-Disadvantaged Groups in Debris Flow Vulnerable Area

Jie-Ying Wu, Ming-Chuan University
Jen-Te Pai, Ming-Chuan University

Social science researchers have found that households with aged persons are less likely to evacuate and persons with disabilities require evacuation assistance as well as additional time for preparation. Therefore, government needs to pay more attention to these two groups while conducting evacuations.

Taiwan is vulnerable to debris flow hazards, mainly caused by typhoon. According to the data from Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), there are 1,420 potential debris flow streams on the island. Whenever there are typhoons or heavy rain, SWCB will announce yellow alert or red alert for risk areas which local authorities will adopt and conduct warning and evacuations. Regular exercises conducted by the Soil and Water Conservation Board over the past six years, have indicated critical issues related to evacuation orders for the elderly and disabled persons.

This study focuses on the differences between general residents and mobility-disadvantaged groups (households with any aged or disabled person or with a child under age six) on evacuation decision-making and evacuation behavior. Using questionnaire surveys, we selected a stratified random sample of residents who live in a debris flow vulnerable area in Shuili Township, Nantou County and Jianshih Township, Hsinchu County in 2007. This study finds interesting results which differ from findings reported by western countries. Specifically, we found that the mobility-disadvantaged group needs shorter preparation time than general residents and has a significantly higher evacuation rate and there are no reported differences on the reliability of different warning dissemination channels between general residents and mobility-disadvantage groups.

Before Katrina: The Transformation from External to Manufactured Flood Risk in New Orleans

Nicole Youngman, Loyola University

This research uses a combination of archival sources and secondary histories to explore the consequences of several canal-related megaprojects that were implemented throughout the city of New Orleans during the mid-twentieth century. Drawing on the theoretical work of Ulrich Beck, Anthony Giddens, and Raymond Murphy, it examines the ways in which these projects have shifted New Orleans’ flood risk from external/natural sources to those manufactured by human activities.

These projects were created at the behest of the city’s growth machine—a group of politicians and business elites, particularly the Levee Board, the Sewerage and Water Board, and the Dock Board, with the power to make major decisions regarding large-scale manipulations of the city’s landscape. These boards received significant assistance via “up-links” (political connections) with both the state and federal governments, whose support was needed to authorize and fund the projects.

Although the city has always been surrounded by water—the Mississippi River, Lakes Pontchartrain and Borgne, and the Gulf of Mexico—the expansion of the city away from the higher ground along the river’s natural levees and the creation of several large drainage and shipping canals eventually put hundreds of thousands of residents at increased risk from hurricane storm surges. The results of this transformation have been devastating for New Orleans, which ironically has seen worse flooding with each subsequent hurricane even while its flood-control systems have grown more elaborate.