Factors Influencing Quality of County Ratings in the Community Rating System of the National Flood Insurance Program

This poster examines factors that influence quality of participation in the National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) Community Rating System (CRS). This analysis seeks to answer the question, “To what extent, if any, do social and economic circumstances, recent flood history, and state mitigation policies affect CRS ratings at the county level?”

Historical experience and a body of research reveal a multitude of factors influence vulnerability to natural hazards and how well communities prepare for them. Social factors influencing vulnerability include income, race/ethnicity, gender, age, housing tenure, rental status, and education. Population density and growth influence vulnerability from a land use and planning perspective. Environmental, geographical, geological, and historical disaster variables also enter into the vulnerability equation. State requirements and mandates also play a role regarding hazard mitigation planning.

This poster will explore the relationship between the aforementioned vulnerability-related variables and CRS ratings. Regression modeling, with CRS ratings serving as the dependent variable, is used to examine these relationships. Independent variables were selected from U.S. Census data, state disaster planning requirements, weather data, and other sources.

This research will help policy makers, activists, and academics better understand what factors influence not only CRS ratings, but actual flood mitigation approximated by them. Little, if any, current research explores the connection between vulnerability factors and CRS ratings. With this research in hand, groups can make more-educated decisions encouraging high-quality participation of communities in the NFIP.

Hurricane Ono–The Florida Catastrophic Planning Project

Carla Boyce, Innovative Energy Management, Inc.
Rory Connell, Innovative Energy Management, Inc.
Sarah Tuneberg, Innovative Energy Management, Inc.

The danger of failure of the Herbert Hoover Dike around Lake Okeechobee and the threat of a Category 5 hurricane striking densely populated South Florida prompted the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the State of Florida to jointly tackle the Florida Catastrophic Planning Project, beginning in the fall of 2006. The project is driven by a Category 5 hurricane scenario (Hurricane Ono) and consequence projections created and vetted by subject matter experts, including the National Hurricane Center, the South Florida Water Management District, State and local emergency managers, first responders, the private sector, nongovernmental organizations, and many others. Preliminary models show that Ono would prompt an evacuation of nearly three million residents; put most of South Florida under one to four or more feet of water for weeks; destroy or severely damage the homes of more than 70 percent of the population; leave six million people without electricity; and cripple the State’s transportation infrastructure.

A nine-member planning team—with presence at FEMA Headquarters, FEMA Region IV, the Florida Division of Emergency Management in Tallahassee, and counties in South Florida—assists the FEMA/State of Florida/local partnership in a host of planning activities. These activities include providing technical assistance directly to the counties; conducting workshops, meetings, and research; and coordinating with local, tribal, State, Federal, private industry, critical infrastructure, and nonprofit partners to develop plans and tools that meet the demands of the catastrophic scenario.

Using High-Resolution Aerial Imagery to Document Damage in the Witch Creek Fire

Tanya Brown, Texas Tech University
Tim Reinhold, Institute for Business and Home Safety
David Kook, Texas Tech University
Candace Iskowitz, Institute for Business and Home Safety

In October 2007, several wildfires swept through Southern California, causing widespread damage, with an estimated $1.1 billion in insured losses. The largest, most destructive, and most costly of these fires is the Witch Creek fire, in San Diego County, which primarily affected the communities of Julian, Ramona, Poway, Escondido, Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Santa Fe, among others. This fire was responsible for damaging over 1,500 structures in its path.

This study aims to document the damage in six communities within the fire burn perimeter, focusing on three communities known as “Shelter-in-Place” communities, and three other communities. The Shelter-in-Place communities are designed and constructed to withstand the wildfires common to Southern California, and there were no structural losses within these three communities, or the two other Shelter-in-Place communities in the county. In the three comparison communities, there were many structural losses. The research strives to identify what factors helped to spare those homes in the Shelter-in-Place communities, while the other communities suffered significant losses. Factors include construction techniques and materials, as well as vegetation and terrain. The study also focuses on issues such as spacing of homes, and the effect of a holistic community-wide approach versus. an individual approach to fire protection.

Identifying Barriers to Risk Communication Using Free Word Association

Gabriel Burns, Texas A&M University
George Rogers, Texas A&M University

Conveying risk of environmental hazard among different populations involves communication among subcultures. Risk communication within a population can meet with problems when those groups do not share the underlying meaning of words. These barriers often arise when misunderstandings of cultural meaning are driven by subconscious cultural knowledge. Risk communication is more effective when words have shared meaning.

Associative group analysis (AGA) uses free word association to better understand communication barriers. AGA helps examine how language is rooted to culture and geography, as well as how to identify language barriers among various groups. Previous studies applied AGA using stimulus words related to risk and hazard management, determining a level of shared understanding among different groups. Risk language from an AGA analysis in the Washington, D.C. area in 1985, and again in 2007, are used in this poster to elucidate the underlying shared and divergent meanings of words. The analysis shows differences in meaning, as well as the cultural attachments in risk communication associated with various subcultures.

Disaster management from the National Academies

Brianna Cash, The National Academies

Highlighted Reports: Successful Response Starts with a Map (2006)
Emergency managers on the scene often cannot make use of geospatial data and tools. This report assessed the status of geospatial data, tools and infrastructures and recommended ways to improve their use.

Facing Hazards and Disasters: Understanding Human Dimensions (2006)
As evidenced by recent events, such as Hurricane Katrina, hazards and disaster social science research could be improved greatly. This report recommends that more studies should be pursued that compare how the characteristics of different types of events affect societal vulnerability and response.

Tools and Methods for Estimating Populations at Risk from Natural Disasters and Complex Humanitarian Crises (2007)
Each year, millions are displaced by disasters and conflicts. The demographic characteristics and locations of the populations at risk are often unknown. This report provides the framework for the collection and use of population data and the tools and people trained for effective disaster relief.

National Land Parcel Data: A Vision for the Future (2007)
In disasters, parcel data are needed to know whose property was affected. This report assessed the current status and the Challenges to developing nationally consistent land parcel data in the United States.

Disasters Roundtable Workshops
Facilitating and enhancing the exchange of ideas among scientists, practitioners, and policy makers concerned with urgent and important issues related to natural, technological, and other disasters.

“Community Elevation Conversations” and “Elderly Evacuation”

Shirley Laska, University of New Orleans Center for Hazards Assessment Response and Technology

The Center for Hazards Assessment, Response & Technology (CHART), founded in 2001, is an applied social science hazards research center at The University of New Orleans that collaborates with coastal Louisiana communities including the City of New Orleans and its surrounding parishes.

CHART’s “Community Elevation Conversations” project’s goal is to implement a real-time community-based outreach program in support of full implementation of the Louisiana Road Home/FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) Special Road Home Recipients Home Elevation Program. The elevation project is funded by the Public Entity Risk Institute (PERI) to encourage homeowners to take advantage of the $1.2 billion provided to help Louisiana homeowners elevate their homes out of flood risk. From the project efforts, effective outreach practices are being developed, articulated and evaluated so that they can be honed and applied to future major coastal hurricanes, inland levee breaches and events such as wildfires that destroy large amounts of housing and require hazard resistant reconstruction following disasters.

The “Elderly Evacuation” project focuses on a community-based planning process to enhance existing knowledge about community resources and to identify the elements that coordinate a comprehensive mobilization to evacuate the elderly residents during a future hurricane threat. In collaboration with the Regional Planning Commission, CHART hopes that the work of this grant, provided by Grantmakers in Aging Hurricane Fund for the Elderly, will create a joint effort with partnering organizations with existing ties to elderly populations.  Complicated medical conditions, transportation debacles and the often extreme stress of uprooting regular routines are just a few of the reasons that forced some elderly to choose to stay behind or evacuate too late.  Durring Hurricane Katrina, the elderly experienced significantly higher rates of mortality relative to any other age group. The project plans for future storms by building on existing relationships among agencies, advocates, the city, and the elderly.

The Spatial Complexity of Health Vulnerability: Temporary Trailer Homes in the Post-Katrina Landscape

Andrew Curtis, University of Southern California
Jacqueline W. Mills, University of Southern California

Recent reports originating from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) have warned about the continuing health impacts to those who suffered during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, particularly for those who live in and around temporary trailer homes. These reports raise questions about the geography of trailer residences and the resulting impact on the physical and mental health of people trying to recover.

This poster demonstrates the Holy Cross neighborhood of New Orleans as a study area upon which to pose questions connected to the issue of ongoing health vulnerability. However, neighborhood level post-disaster health investigations such as this are acknowledged to be challenging for a variety of reasons, not least of which is a means to systematically collect data. Therefore, a GPS encoded video survey was conducted to assess the number of trailers in Holy Cross and the environmental stressors surrounding them. Three-dimensional models of the trailer landscape and environmental stressors were created.

These stressors are based on the established associations between visible indicators of disorganization in the built environment and health problems. Surfaces of building damage and abandonment, vegetation overgrowth, and the number of visible search and rescue markings (remaining as of January 2008), surrounding the trailers were created to represent the environmental stressors proximate to trailer locations. A rationale for the data collection strategy outlined here is to prove a methodological approach that could (a) collect data where none existed, and frame these data within a larger environmental context, and (b) offer near-real time prioritization of health (especially mental health) resources to those most in need.

Evolutionary Multi-Hazard Mitigation: Optimized Design and Retrofit of Passively Damped Structures

Seda Dogruel, The State University of New York at Buffalo
Gary F. Dargush, The State University of New York at Buffalo

Considering multi-hazard events has become a crucial requirement in the design or retrofit of important structures for accurate estimation of both resiliency and life cycle cost. There are many reasons multi-hazard design of structures is now more of a concern for the structural engineer than it was 10 years ago. One is the structures consist of members that are more slender and lighter than before. This offers a number of architectural benefits, but makes the structures more susceptible to hazardous loads. The risk of experiencing natural hazards has increased because of the increase in urbanization in many countries subject to earthquakes or high winds. The amplified demand for robust and efficient structures has led to more emphasis on properly designing such structures against multi-hazard events.

In this poster, a practical and flexible computational methodology is introduced for the Evolutionary Multi-hazard Design (EMD) of seismic and wind-excited structures retrofitted with passive energy dissipation devices such as metallic yielding dampers, viscous fluid dampers, and viscoelastic solid dampers. In addition to designing in compliance with the relevant codes of practice, it is essential in design or retrofit of structures to consider that the performance of passive energy dissipation devices for reducing the structural responses depends on the distribution, type, size, and number of dampers in the structure.

EMD provides a genetic algorithm (GA) based methodology to address these optimization issues of multi-hazard design within the context of nonlinear steel frame structures. Optimization objectives in EMD include minimizing both the damage to and life cycle cost of structure which is vulnerable to one or two of the main natural hazards: earthquakes and high winds. While considering the conflicts in dynamic response demands of the structures to these two natural phenomena, passively damped structural designs evolve toward configurations that satisfy prescribed constraints. The poster includes a number of illustrative examples to highlight the benefits of the proposed computational multi-hazard design approach.

Climate Signals and the Application of Science to Emergency Management Decision Making

Matt Dull, Virginia Tech University
Patrick Roberts, Harvard University
Kris Wernstedt, Virginia Tech University

Advances in scientific knowledge, along with the evolution of computer and other technical capabilities, offer hope that science can improve public policy decision making, yet the use of scientific knowledge by policymakers in a democratic system depends on a number of technical, political, organizational and social contingencies. The goal of the project proposed is to illuminate obstacles to the use of scientific knowledge in one contemporary case—the use of climate signals in the management of natural hazards—where the application of science most clearly offers potential to improve public policy.

Scientific progress furnishes the opportunity for policymakers to reduce disaster losses in floods and hurricanes. Yet only a small portion of local emergency managers—who could benefit from improved information about seasonal climate shifts, such as El Nino—use that information in preparation for seasonal natural disasters. The scholarly literature suggests the reasons for this discrepancy go deeper than variations in skill and competence of individual managers.

Our study will combine individual semi-structured interviews; facilitated group discussion among experts and practitioners; and a national survey of hazards management specialists employing choice experiments to examine the relative importance of different factors in defining the utility of climate forecasts.

Development of High-Resolution Coastal Digital Elevation Models for the United States: Seamlessly Integrating Bathymetric and Topographic Data to Support Tsunami Forecasting and Modeling Efforts

Barry W. Eakins, University of Colorado at Boulder
Lisa A. Taylor, NOAA National Geophysical Data Center

The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These combined bathymetric–topographic DEMs are used to support tsunami forecasting and modeling efforts at the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL). The DEMs are part of the tsunami forecast system known as Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis, or SIFT, which is being developed by PMEL for the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers and are used in the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model developed by PMEL to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation.

We present our methodology for creating the high-resolution coastal DEMs—typically at 1/3 arc-second (~10 meters) cell size—from bathymetric, topographic, and shoreline data obtained from various sources, including federal, state, and local government agencies, academic institutions, and private companies. These diverse digital datasets are collected using numerous methodologies, in different terrestrial environments, and at various scales and resolutions. We discuss problems encountered in building the DEMs and lessons learned, including the importance of establishing common vertical datums, accounting for morphologic change in the coastal zone, and evaluating source data sets for reliability, consistency and accuracy.

NATO and the EU: International Disaster Response Challenges

Frannie Edwards, San Jose State University

The European Union (EU), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United Nations (UN) are among the organizations that have a cross-border disaster response mission. The EU and NATO are focused on responding to requests from their members, with support for non-member states provided through the UN. Even within their member states, NATO and the EU have challenges providing response to natural, technological and criminal disasters because of state sovereignty issues, cultural norms, and religious requirements. When they function in support of the UN, as in the Pakistan Earthquake and the recent Myanmar typhoon, international organizations face significant challenges to their ability to respond effectively.

Military first responders must be invited to assist under terms of a treaty or the auspices of an international aid agency. In that case, uniforms are their visas. Civilian responders must have entry documents, such as visas, issued by the receiving jurisdiction. Nations with a history of limited contact with the outside world may refuse to issue visas, as in Myanmar, leaving distribution of aid in the hands of local government agencies that often have no disaster response experience.

Outside first responders must also be sensitive to the local culture, including religious sensitivities, gender roles, and views of death. Often the experienced outside responders must function as expert advisers to local resource agencies, which may be less skilled, but will have clearer understandings of acceptable response.

The Gender and Disaster Network

Gender and Disaster Network

The Gender and Disaster Network (GDN) unites people interested in disasters and their impact on gender relations. Over 500 researchers and practitioners interact in GDN’s vibrant online community through a Website at http://www.gdnonline.org and through an active discussion list. The GDN also provides resources to others through The Gender and Disaster Sourcebook, a knowledge base on gender, disaster and related themes, as well as links to news stories about the experiences of women, men, and youth in disasters.

Social, cultural, and economic structures that marginalize women and girls increase their vulnerability to disasters and mass emergencies. In many countries women and youth are less likely to have access to cars or other transportation and to radios, TV, and other information sources about impending disasters.

Because several important risk mitigation frameworks, such as the Hyogo Framework and the Provention Framework, have recently acknowledge the importance of women’s perspectives and have authorized member nations to create risk mitigation plans, the GDN’s opportunities for international effectiveness have increased. The GDN goals are to:

• Document and analyze women’s and men’s experiences before, during, and after disaster, situating gender relations in broad political, economic, historical, and cultural context,
• Work across disciplinary and organizational boundaries in support of collaborative research and applied projects,
• Foster information sharing and resource building among network members, and
• Build and sustain an active international community of scholars and activists.

An exciting highlight of the GDN is the Gender and Disaster Sourcebook, which is a one-stop, user-friendly electronic guide to help others answer the question “Gender and disaster—what’s the connection?” Please visit and contribute to the sourcebook at www.gdnonline.org/sourcebook/.

Analyzing Hazard Risk Exposure Along the Texas Coast (1980-2000)

Himanshu Grover, Texas A&M University
Joseph Mayunga, Texas A&M University
Ching-Yu Chou, Texas A&M University

Coastal areas worldwide are experiencing unprecedented urban growth. Increased population heightens the risk of exposure to a wide range of natural coastal hazards including, tropical storms, hurricanes, floods, and sea level rise. In 2000, the population of coastal counties in Texas accounted for more than 30 percent of the total state population and is projected to increase significantly in this decade.

Despite the increasing problem of vulnerable coastal population in Texas, little is known about the degree and location of risk facing residents or how this risk is changing over time. Our study addresses this issue by evaluating coastal hazard risks along the Texas coast as a combination of social vulnerability and risks from natural hazards of flooding, coastal erosion, and sea level rise. Social vulnerability is a complex and dynamic concept that changes over time and space. It is measured as a combination of adaptation and coping mechanisms of communities to help them withstand and recover from the adverse impacts of natural hazards.

We use U.S. Census data from the last three decades to analyze changes in social vulnerability in the coastal counties of Texas. The combination of social vulnerability assessment with geographically delineated risk zones provides a realistic assessment of past changes in risk exposure over time. The results show that over the past three decades social analysis thus identified specific areas on which decision makers should focus to enhance local community coping capacities and foster resilient communities along the coast of Texas.

Domestic Violence After Civil Defence Emergencies in New Zealand: A Tale from Timaru

Rosalind Houghton, Victoria University of Wellington

Domestic violence is an issue that has gained widespread recognition in recent years in New Zealand. Both government and non-government agencies are currently involved in a long-term nationwide campaign aimed at changing New Zealanders’ attitudes towards domestic violence and educating both victims and perpetrators about the options for help and advice. Despite this, little attention has been given to the impact of major life events such as Civil Defence emergencies on domestic violence in New Zealand.

This research is a case study of Timaru–a town in New Zealand’s South Island that experienced a major snow event resulting in power cuts and a loss of phone lines in both the town and the outlying rural areas for up to two months. This event led to a Civil Defence emergency being declared for a 10-day period after the initial snowfall and much longer term social impacts followed. The case study involves interviews with agencies involved in the Civil Defence response as well as domestic violence agencies, and an examination of the statistics collected by those domestic violence agencies.

A clear increase was found in the number of women reporting domestic violence that was not expected by any agency. There were also other policy and planning issues including the Women’s Refuge safehouse being geographically cut off from workers for a one-week period after the initial snowfall which was not planned for and a lack of contact by any Civil Defence agency representative with domestic violence-specific agencies.

Crisis Web Portal: Making Sense of On-line Disaster Activity

Amanda Lee Hughes, University of Colorado at Boulder
Leysia Palen, University of Colorado at Boulder

With the recent explosion of social networking and peer communication occurring on the Internet, information is being generated by these activities that could potentially be used in informal and formal disaster response and relief efforts. However, the large size and distributed nature of these activities makes it tedious and time consuming to gather and extract data.

The dissertation research presented here proposes an easy-to-use Crisis Web Portal that will automate the process of gathering information sharing activity on the Internet, process it, and present it for use during times of disaster.

Faith-Based Organization and Disaster Response: A Case Study of Muhammadiyah Organization, Indonesia

Rahmawati (Ama) Husein, Texas A&M University

Indonesia is very vulnerable to natural hazards. A big tsunami hit Aceh on December 26, 2004 and a powerful earthquake hit Yogyakarta on May 27, 2006. Not only government provided response, but also international agencies and civil societies which consist of CBOs, NGOs and formal, as well as informal volunteers. These civil societies have taken center stage during and after the disaster. This study will examine Muhammadiyah, a faith-based organization, in organizing response in the two catastrophic situations.

This poster will focus on how Muhammadiyah, as the oldest and one of the biggest social and religious organizations in Indonesia, set up the emergency operation center and planned for emergency and recovery programs. It will discuss how the EOC was structured, including staffing, operating the EOC, the components of organization, their roles, and the area of the response. It will also discuss issues and problems in relation to external organizations such as government, NGOs, and donors, as well as to internal organizations such as agencies and wing organizations.

The study shows that infrastructure and resources which are owned by Muhammadiyah helped the response effectively. The “kampong” model, which applies a “mosque” as a center for facilitating the victim needs, demonstrated community involvement and a comprehensive planning approach. This model worked well in terms of coordination, budget efficiency and recovery process.

The Theory of Recovery by Tourism

Akira Ide, Tokyo Metropolitan University

There are a lot of tourist points all over the world. Some of these places may be damaged by disasters. On the other hand, some places which were not tourist points previously may sometimes develop a tourism industry. On this poster, I will present the pathway to recovery by tourism in terms of four categories.

The first type is the tourist points which weren’t able to recover from the damages using tourism. The second type is the tourist points which had experienced a disaster but recovered through tourism. Phuket or French Quarter of New Orleans are good examples for this type. The third type is non-tourist points that tried to become a tourist destination but could not recover by tourism. For this type, there are a lot of examples in the world. The last type is the non-tourist points which recovered by tourism after a disaster. Using these viewpoints, recovery by tourism could be explained systematically.

Using HAZUS-MH Damage Assessments to Determine Social Impacts and Needs Assessments

Theresa Jefferson, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
John R. Harrald, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Tay Johannes, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Following the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the United States has been focusing on preparing for other potential catastrophic events. A team composed of The Center for Technology, Security and Policy at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (VT) and the George Washington University’s Institute for Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management (ICDRM) in conjunction with the Mid-America Earthquake Center (MAEC), are involved in a FEMA funded research project that will provide eight states (Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri) and 4 FEMA Regions, as well as the Federal Government, with essential scientific and technical modeling results that will predict potential physical and human consequences should a New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) earthquake occur.

The mission of the New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Planning Project is to create a comprehensive preparedness plan for a catastrophic earthquake in the NMSZ based on the most advanced impact assessment techniques and new response and recovery methodologies. The software program, HAZUS-MH, a public-domain application, is being utilized by the MAEC to produce damage and loss estimates based on a scientifically defendable scenario. The focus of the VT/ICDRM team is to translate these damage and loss estimates into needs assessments. Current modeling efforts being undertaken to meet this requirement include: medical needs assessment, commodities distribution assessment, social vulnerability analysis, identification of “at risk populations,” as well as a sheltering analysis.

Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Evaluation: Study of the Texas Coastal Area

Jung Eun Kang, Texas A&M University
Rahmawati (Ama) Husein, Texas A&M University
Gabriel R. Burns, Texas A&M University

The property damage caused by various hazards has increased steadily over past decades. With increasing development along the coast, proactive hazard mitigation actions that emphasize long-term disaster management are gaining importance. The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000, particularly, requires states or local jurisdictions to develop hazard mitigation plans as a condition of eligibility for Federal Emergency Management Agency hazard mitigation grants.

As of May 2007, more than 14,000 local jurisdictions had developed local hazard mitigation plans or participated in local, multi-jurisdictional hazard mitigation. But there is limited research evaluating hazard mitigation plan quality or effectiveness in achieving the desired objectives. This study focuses on evaluating the current local mitigation plans of Texas coastal areas using plan quality evaluation.

These areas are particularly vulnerable to both natural and technical hazards. Five multi-jurisdictional hazard mitigation plans and three local hazard mitigation plans were evaluated by three evaluators. A total of 111 coastal jurisdictions were covered. The evaluation protocol was comprised of seven components: vision statement, planning process, fact bases, goals and objectives, inter-organizational coordination, policies, and implementation. Generally, all plans scored low in overall quality. Most mitigation plans scored low in the areas of fact base and policies. None of the plans addressed issues of social vulnerability and they often lacked detailed risk analysis of the constituent jurisdiction. These findings illustrate the real ground situation and provide a comprehensive picture of local mitigation planning. The results, thus, help make future mitigation plan activities more efficient.

Center for Coastal Systems Informatics and Modeling

Jamie Kruse, East Carolina University

The Renci Center for Coastal Systems Informatics and Modeling at East Carolina University currently involves 22 ECU Faculty Members and 17 students across 10 departments and both campuses (East Campus and Health Sciences Campus).

Our second year has been one of steady growth as we moved into offices, implemented new technologies, established new relationships, and continued projects outlined in the original Memorandum of Understanding. I will highlight a few of our accomplishments briefly.

• Faculty and students utilize the Access Grid Node Facility and Visualization Wall on a regular basis and in so doing have identified additional applications for these resources.
• The Center has announced two RENCI Fellowships for Fall 2008 to support masters thesis projects that complement the mission of the Center.
• Tom Allen and graduate assistants organized ECU’s first VisWall Challenge, which showcased seven completed projects on April 23, 2008.
• The Center co-sponsored and hosted a GIS Colloquium and Workshop March 28-29 that attracted 50 participants from throughout North Carolina and colloquium speakers from four states.
• Center researchers, outreach, and graduate students participated in Dare County’s Hurricane Awareness Week, May 28-30, 2008, through presentations, demonstrations, and visits to local schools.

Research projects at the Center are yielding both results and products.

Center for Natural Hazards Research

Jamie Kruse, East Carolina University

The Center for Natural Hazards Research was established in 2004 to serve as a focal point for East Carolina University faculty interested in collaborative research on natural hazards with particular emphasis on coastal hazards. It has experienced progress and growth in nearly all assessment measures that were defined in the 2004 CNHR Strategic Plan. The CNHR team consists of 9 Core faculty members, 16 ECU faculty associates and 24 CNHR faculty associates at other campuses. Eight students received hourly or graduate assistant support through CNHR.

The CNHR Website: http://www.ecu.edu/hazards/

Grant Activity- Funded projects totaled $2.79 million

• We have experienced another year of growth in return on ECU investment. The Ratio of Total Annualized External Funding to Total Internal Support = 9.36, in comparison 06/07 was 7.33.

Professional Activity of nine Core Hazards Faculty:

• 29 Refereed Journal Articles

• Nine Conference Proceedings and Book Chapters

• Seven Abstracts

• 35 presentations at conferences and departmental seminars.

Development of Algorithms to Estimate Post-Disaster Population Dislocation—A Research-Based Approach

Yi-Sz Lin, Texas A&M University

Population dislocation is a form of mass movement attributed to natural disasters. This mass migration is a type of collective behavior with the involvement of social momentum (Belcher & Bates, 1983). Early anecdotal evidence demonstrates that households attain various levels of success at their disaster-induced forced moves, mainly based upon their socio-economic status (Fried, 1966; Haas et al., 1977; Heller, 1982; Morrow-Jones & Morrow-Jones, 1991). Quantitative results found in Peacock and Girard’s (1997) population study further suggest that the social patterns of the disaster impact area affect the dislocation of households. However, the only existing algorithmic model to estimate population dislocation—the HAZUS model—relies solely on the physical damage to structures, without consideration of the social-economic system in play.

In this context, the study attempts to develop dislocation algorithms that incorporate both physical damage and social-economic systems as explanatory factors to estimate the number of population dislocation following a major natural disaster. It tries to formulate the algorithms based on statistical models with the utilization of empirical data.

NASA LaRC/DEVELOP Program: Annual Hazards Research and Applications Workshop

Derek Loftis, Virginia Climate Change Project

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that climate change is “unequivocal.” The impacts of climate change on global biological and physiological processes are immense and pose many concerns that will directly affect public policy. Hampton Roads’ unique combination of a large population residing in a tidal basin and diverse ecology, enhances its vulnerability to climate changes, and contributes to approximately one billion dollars spent to combat invasive species in Virginia. The region is experiencing both increasing sea-level and land-subsidence.

A higher mean sea level in reference to land will result in more frequent inundation from tropical events. The shift in ecosystem dynamics will also increase disease vectors. Longer warm weather seasons contribute to an increase in the population of mosquitoes and ticks, causing a rise in vector-borne diseases. Rising sea levels correlate with increasing salinity in wetlands. Wetlands previously inhabited by native Spartina species have shifted population dynamics through aggressive invasive species resulting in decreased ecological diversity in wetlands.

This study observes the effect of climate change on increased vulnerability from tropical weather events, habitats suitable for vectors of diseases, and Phragmites australis as an invasive species for Virginia focusing on the Hampton Roads region. Understanding these changes is a positive step toward understanding and implementing new public policy in upcoming situations.

Utilization of Geospatial Technology in Local Emergency Management

Maribel Martinez, Texas Tech University
Laura Blount, Amarillo/Potter/Randall Office of Emergency Management
Kevin Starbuck, Amarillo/Potter/Randall Office of Emergency Management

A variety of geospatial software programs exist in the market today that help provide local emergency managers and officials the ability to make more informed decisions during a time of crisis. Each program brings different elements that assist in the decision process yet using each separately is not ideal due to time constraints.

The poster will present how our office has sought to combine the capabilities of different geospatial programs during planning and response operations. Additionally, an assessment of hazardous materials incidents spatially and categorically in the Amarillo area will be presented.

Improvisation as Nexus: Cognition, Behavior, and Interaction in Response to Two U.S. Disasters

David Mendonça, New Jersey Institute of Technology
Gary Webb, Oklahoma State University
Carter Butts, University of California at Irvine

The ability to act creatively and successfully while under pressure is a hallmark of the skilled emergency responder. Indeed, as demonstrated by the responses to many emergencies, an ability to improvise remains crucial to the success of post-disaster operations. Yet the means by which this ability is developed, exercised and enhanced are under-explored, often ascribed to years of experience or to the manager’s particular personality.

This study investigates the role of improvisation in the response to two highly non-routine events: the 11 September 2001 World Trade Center attack in New York City and the 19 April 1995 bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City. This is the first large-scale academic study to attempt to uncover the thoughts, actions and communications that underlied decision making by first responders in the time immediately following these attacks. It therefore stands to create a detailed picture of the dynamics among response personnel during this crucial period.

The overall scientific objective is to improve understanding of how both planned and improvised decision making are shaped by conditions on the ground such as time pressure and the unusualness of the event. The study draws upon communication and dispatch logs from fire, police, medical and other prominent services, supplemented by after-action reports, photos, diagrams and other materials. This poster presents interim results from this project, focusing on a comparative analysis of response by police personnel to each event.

The EIIP Virtual Forum–Global Information Sharing

Avagene Moore, Emergency Infrastructure Project
Amy Sebring, CEM

The world struggles with a need for adequate, effective dissemination of disaster information, warnings, lessons learned, and best practices that enhance disaster preparedness and prevention. The Emergency Information Infrastructure Partnership (EIIP) Virtual Forum at www.emforum.org sees the Internet as a viable approach to linking the disaster management world and sharing disaster preparedness and prevention messages with researchers, practitioners and the masses.

The EIIP Virtual Forum has provided educational and networking opportunities—including public discussion groups, forums, panels, lectures, and workshops hosting—for 11 years. The primary mission of the EIIP Forum is promoting online emergency and disaster management education and training. Timely topics are addressed twice monthly by experts drawn from all levels of government, the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and academia, meeting the needs of the domestic and global EIIP audience. The EIIP Virtual Forum is advanced by EIIP Partners, forum participants, mailing lists, word of mouth, and other means of outreach.

Most new site content comes from transcripts of the monthly Virtual Forum sessions. Accordingly, the majority of site traffic statistics can be tracked to archived transcripts dating back to 1997, with a good percentage attributed to live chat sessions and the homepage’s current news feature. Transcripts of diverse to disaster management-related topics are available online.

America’s history of disaster history, coupled with the country’s interest in better preparedness, response, and recovery capabilities, means open dialogue and information sharing are critical needs in this country and abroad. The EIIP provides a valuable service for domestic and global audiences.

ICESat Estimates of Forest Canopy Height Loss for Post-Hurricane Timber Damage Detection and Assessment Decision Support

NASA DEVELOP, John C. Stennis Space Center & Southern University
Advisors
Dr. Kenton Ross, Stennis Space Center; Dr. Andra Johnson,Southern University
Students
Jason Jones, Stennis Space Center; Lauren Childs, Stennis Space Center; Craig Matthews, Stennis Space Center; Denise Spindel, Stennis Space Center; Sadaf Malik, Stennis Space Center; Angela Pelkie, Stennis Space Center; Matthew Batina, Stennis Space Center; Deirdra Boley, Southern University; Stevenson Paradeshi, Southern University; Christopher Chappell, Southern University

The primary concentration is on the utilization of Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data products to detect changes in forest canopy height as an indicator of post-hurricane forest disturbances.  ICESat is a NASA spaceborne lidar mission that utilizes green and infrared light to determine land surface and vegetation vertical structure in 70m elliptical footprints.  While created to primarily measure polar ice sheet mass and cloud property information, it has proven successful in measuring forest canopy height. By analyzing ICESat data over areas affected by Hurricane Katrina, this study demonstrates that ICESat may serve as a useful indicator of a storm’s direct effects as well as its long term consequences.

February 2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak Damage Assessment

Amber E. Reynolds, Texas Tech University
Tanya Brown, Texas Tech University
Daan Liang, Texas Tech University
J. Arn Womble, Texas Tech University
Anneley McMillan, ImageCat, Inc.

The Super Tuesday tornado outbreak began the afternoon of February 5, 2008 and continued until early morning the next day, leaving widespread damage in many states, including Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky. This outbreak, with 62 confirmed fatalities, is considered the deadliest since the May 31, 1985 tornado outbreak that affected Southern Ontario, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and upstate New York.

This research is based on residential damage data collected from Madison and Macon counties in Tennessee using the Visualizing Impacts of Earthquakes with Satellites (VIEWS) system developed by ImageCat. Enhanced-Fujita Scale damage ratings are assigned to provide detailed per-building damage assessments which indicate various levels of wind force. Preliminary results suggest damage in Madison County, which included the highly publicized damage to Union University in Jackson, was not as extensive as damage in Macon County. These results are derived from a small sample of an entire data set acquired during a four-day ground survey in western and central Tennessee. Future work will include an in-depth examination of tornado damage in relation to certain meteorological storm characteristics to attain a better understanding of how to enhance building resistance and community resilience, minimizing long-term losses.

Time Line Charts

Claire B. Rubin, Claire B. Rubin and Associates

No. 1: Terrorism Time Line: Major Focusing Events and U.S. Outcomes (1993-2006), ver.6, April 2007. The chart, which measures 13”x 40,” shows major focusing events by year and the influences that each event had on major outcomes—reports and analyses; federal statutes, regulations and executive orders; federal response plans; and major federal organizational changes.

No. 2: Disaster Time Line: Major Focusing Events and U.S. Outcomes (1978-2006), ver. 4.0, April 2007. This chart, also 13” x 40”, contains information on natural, industrial/ technological, and biological events and their outcomes. It too shows major defining events and their major outcomes.

No. 3: Century Time Line (1900-2005). This the companion chart for the new book. The book is: Emergency Management: The American Experience, 1900-2005; Claire B. Rubin, Editor. 284pp. Available from the sponsor, PERI, www.riskinstitute.org.

No. 4: Disaster Time Line for B.C. and Canada: Major Focusing Events and Outcomes (1917-2007). This new chart covers 90 years of Canadian disaster history, showing major, focusing events and their outcomes for the provinces and the nation.

Emergency Management and Public Response to Warnings: Integrating the End-User Community

Jenniffer M. Santos-Hernández, University of Delaware Disaster Research Center
Havidán Rodríguez, University of Delaware Disaster Research Center
William Donner, University of Delaware Disaster Research Center
Walter Díaz, University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez

For the past five years, the Disaster Research Center (DRC) has worked in partnership with the Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) in the development of an innovative radar system. Using a Distributed Collaborative Adaptive Sensing (DCAS) strategy, the system pretends to offer the end-user community an improved system that will enhance their ability to detect, understand, and predict tornadoes, storms, precipitation and other atmospheric and airborne hazards that form in the lower troposphere.

As part of the End-User Integration team, researchers at the DRC and CASA, are conducting qualitative and quantitative research on emergency management, risk communication, and public response. Our research efforts include a national telephone survey on public response to tornado warnings; in-depth interviews and surveys on emergency management and weather information; quick response research following tornado, flood, and hurricane warnings; and a quantitative index to identify vulnerable populations. These projects facilitate an understanding of the end-user community and the public; synthesize social and engineering science; and contribute to system design efforts on the basis of knowledge about end-user behavior.

Disaster Decision Support Tool (DDST)

Jenniffer M. Santos-Hernández, University of Delaware Disaster Research Center
Havidán Rodríguez, University of Delaware Disaster Research Center
Walter Díaz, University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez

The Disaster Research Center (DRC) at the University of Delaware, with funding from the University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez Sea Grant College Program (UPRMSGCP) and the National Science Foundation (NSF), in collaboration with the Center for Applied Social Research (CISA-UPRM), Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA), University of Delaware Research and Data Management Services (RDMS), and Center for Coastal Hazards (CCH-UPRM), are pilot testing a mapping tool.

The Disaster Decision Support Tool (DDST) is an Internet-based scalable mapping server for disaster planners, responders, and related officials at the municipal, emergency management zone, and state level. DDST offers access, at no cost, to a variety of emergency management and disaster related geo-referenced information for all municipalities in Puerto Rico. One of the main goals of the DDST is to advance the use of geographic information for emergency management in Puerto Rico. The Disaster Decision Support Tool is available online at (http://www.udel.edu/DRC/DDST). The DDST uses a number of governmental data sources and data generated through the aforementioned research projects, including research of investigators at the partner research centers.

DEVELOP Program: Students Utilizing Earth Science Research Results to Address Community Needs

Amy Jo Swanson, NASA DEVELOP

DEVELOP is a NASA Science Mission Directorate Applied Sciences Program that fosters human capital development to extend NASA science research to local communities. With advisors and mentors from NASA and partner organizations, graduate, undergraduate and high school students incorporate NASA science measurements and predictions into prototype projects that address local policy and environmental concerns.

Students demonstrate the benefits of NASA’s Applied Sciences Program by presenting project results at scientific and public policy forums such as the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the American Meteorological Society (AMS) , and the Southern Growth Policies Board (SGPB). Overall, students strengthen leadership and research skills, experiment with novel technology, and engage in cooperative interactions with colleagues and mentors. DEVELOP’s human capital development focus affords students real world experience, enabling them to become a valuable asset to the scientific and global workforce.

NASA’s DEVELOP Program is more than scientific exploration and valuable results; DEVELOP fosters human capital development by bridging the gap between NASA science research and federal, state, local and tribal policy decision makers.

This summary is located on the poster, as well as a brief example of four DEVELOP projects that have been completed.

Integrating Data from NASA Missions into NOAA’s Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) Project

Casey Teske, NASA Ames Research Center
Nicole Simons, NASA Ames Research Center
Frank Garcia, NASA Ames Research Center
Joshua Ingham, NASA Ames Research Center

Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones devastate coastal areas throughout the world, especially in the Pacific Region. The strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas elements that accompany tropical storm events are of interest to researchers and forecasters. In a recent collaboration, NASA DEVELOP interns have teamed with NOAA researchers to enhance their ongoing Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Products (PRICIP) project by integrating NASA mission data products.

The PRICIP project will eventually become an interactive decision support tool that will assist decision makers in mitigating and recovering from natural hazards inevitably reducing coastal vulnerability. DEVELOP’s contribution to this ongoing project included creating hindcasts for three past extreme storm events. The hindcasts were in the form of interactive geovisualizations and highlighted the strong winds, heavy rains, and high sea storm elements that were of interest to NOAA researchers. These interactive geovisualizations will contribute directly to NOAA’s PRICIP decision support tool and will be accessible to researchers and the public through a Web browser.

Seema Gupta, NASA Ames Research Center
Cindy Schmidt, San Jose State University
J.W. Skiles, NASA Ames Research Center
Kathleen Vidoloff, University of Kentucky
Timothy Sellnow, University of Kentucky

Risk Communication Strategies Used to Respond to the 2005 New Zealand FMD Hoax

Hoaxes and terrorist threats, while not actual crises, can cause alarm and anxiety. Terrorist attack hoaxes can be extremely disruptive, a fact recognized by the United States Congress. In 2001 and 2003, the U.S. House of Representatives created the Anti-Hoax Terrorism Act, making it a felony “to perpetrate a hoax related to biological, chemical, nuclear, and weapons of mass destruction attacks.” A crisis response to hoaxes can provide an experiential learning opportunity, however, because organizations respond as if a real threat is present, testing their crisis preparedness.

This project analyzes whether the New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) demonstrated, or failed to demonstrate, the National Center for Food Protection and Defense’s (NCFPD) best practices in risk and crisis communication. As a hoax situation, this scenario provides New Zealand’s government a unique opportunity to learn more about communication response strategies used.

There are two reasons why this research is important to the study of risk and crisis communication. First, it demonstrates a need to study how organizations, specifically government agencies, respond to and disseminate information among various stakeholders during a crisis. Terrorist attacks, or the threat of such attacks, are likely to attract a great deal of media coverage—which is why many are classified as crisis events. Second, potential disruption to a country’s economic base by terrorism is a valid factor in researching risk and crisis communication

Community Economic Adjustment, Post-Disaster Mitigation, and Long-Term Economic Recovery

Yu Xiao, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

This research presents an analytical framework for understanding how communities adjust after major disasters. At the core of the community economy are households, basic businesses, and non-basic businesses. Basic businesses are those with customers who are mainly from outside of the community. In contrast, non-basic businesses are those that serve mainly local customers. Factors such as local leadership, government disaster assistance, and planning and land use regulations affect the adjustment process through their influences on household and business decision making.

A case study of the City of Grafton, Illinois is used as an example of applying the analytical framework. The City of Grafton is a small, riverside tourist community severely damaged by the 1993 Midwest flood, the most costly flood in U.S. history. The floodwater inundated almost the whole city, affecting about 800 of 950 residents. A buyout program was relocated residents out of the floodplain. A total of 110 of 383 structures were bought within two years of the flood

The major methods of investigation are archival data analysis and semi-structured interviews. The results, measured by net economic outcome variables such as number of businesses and community sales taxes, show Grafton recovered or improved since the 1993 flood. Basic businesses in the tourism sector, such as bars and restaurants, made a strong return. Non-basic businesses such as local grocery store and car repair services, however, suffered long-term revenue decline because of lack of customers. Although a new subdivision was made available, very few residents took advantage of it because of unaffordable prices and long wait times for lots.