IRCD Researchers Meeting Abstracts
Terri Adams-Fuller, Howard University
Mila Turner, Howard University
An Examination of Coping Strategies Used by First Responders in the Face of a Disaster
In the face of manmade and natural disasters, first responders are called on to mitigate, respond to, and protect the public. While this is a professional expectation, extreme crisis can present an inimitable set of challenges for responders, particularly when they are personally impacted by the disaster to which they are expected to respond. Media reports of abandonment of duty by New Orleans police officers during Hurricane Katrina highlight the need to better understand factors that challenge and encourage resilience among first responders. This study examines the coping practices that fostered resilience among the New Orleans Police Department officers who served as first responders during Katrina. To gain insight into the experiences and activities of officers during the most stressful parts of the crisis, face-to-face interviews were conducted with officers (N = 57) of varying ranks and divisions. Our data demonstrate the dynamic nature of coping in disasters, as well as the range of strategies practiced by first responders in crisis situations.
Alex Altshuler, Israel Crisis Management Center
Emergency Preparedness of Local Authorities for War-Caused Disaster: General Theoretical Foundations and the Israeli Case
Disasters can gravely damage a community's social fabric. Jeopardizing the psychological well-being of citizens, aid workers, and their families can cause death. War-caused disaster is highly likely in Israel, but, despite this fact, emergency preparedness for war-caused disaster and the factors that influence it haven’t been examined in Israel thus far.
Moreover, there is a general need in disaster research to develop theories and valid empirical tools for examining emergency preparedness for various disaster types. Current research tried to fill that gap, concentrating on the civic emergency preparedness of the local authorities for war-caused disaster and factors that might contribute to that preparedness—joint activities with governmental and non-governmental stakeholders, sociodemographic characteristics of local authorities, allocation of financial resources for emergency preparedness, risk perception, collective efficacy, and previous war exposure.
A structured questionnaire was constructed for the study. It included 74 items, which were divided into nine sub-questionnaires. The reliability levels of the sub-questionnaires varied from 0.73 to 0.89. The questionnaire was distributed among 177 local emergency managers, using a random sampling technique. The response rate was 80.8 percent.
The following factors significantly predicted the level of preparedness: joint activities with governmental and nongovernmental stakeholders, socioeconomic status, collective efficacy, and previous war exposure. Identification of the independent variables, which predict preparedness level, and the validation of instruments to measure them are of theoretical importance, since they allow for the establishment of a coherent and consolidated research framework.
Sudha Arlikatti, University of North Texas
Simon A. Andrew, University of North Texas
James M. Kendra, University of North Texas
Carla S. Prater, Texas A&M University
Role of Government Interventions in Disaster-Related Mental Health Recovery: Longitudinal Study in Tsunami-Affected Communities in Southern India
The distribution of food, clothing, and medicine immediately after disasters is often used as a policy tool to alleviate human suffering caused by disasters. Basic emergency relief supplies enable victims to perform temporary household functions to reclaim their livelihoods and help them move towards long-term recovery. However, social support and network concepts postulated by researchers concerned with behavioral and mental health, social science, and epidemiology, suggest that community-based crisis interventions further serve as “protective” factors and alternative mechanisms for vulnerability reduction, enhanced psycho-social well-being and speedier recovery. They can buffer individuals by providing victims with the much-needed emotional support crucial to holistic recovery.
Using household-level data collected in 2005 and 2008, we examine the consequences of the Indian Ocean tsunami among 558 households in Southern India and the immediate efforts made by state and local government entities in responding to the victim needs. Our preliminary results suggest significant reductions in the number of disaster-related mental health (DMH) problems. While the types of shelters sought by households impact patterns of DMH problems, we found no evidence to suggest monetary compensation received by households has an impact on the incidence of DMH problems.
Justin Baker, Texas A&M University
W. Douglass Shaw, Texas A&M University
Mary Riddel, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Richard Woodward, Texas A&M University
William Neilson, University of Tennessee
Models of Location Choice and Willingness to Pay to Avoid Hurricane Risks for Hurricane Katrina Evacuees
We report on subjects’ perceptions of the risks of hurricanes and relocation decisions. Extensive details on risk perception modeling are in Baker et al. (2009). Our sample contains individuals displaced by Hurricane Katrina or Rita in Gulf Coast areas, as well as a control group relatively unaffected by the hurricanes.
Results build on Baker et al. (forthcoming) and are presented for two choice experiments—conducted immediately after the hurricane and again roughly one year later—in which, while controlling for amenities and other location characteristics, we evaluate the trade-offs between given levels of risks and income. We find that perceptions of risk and damages fade and willingness to pay to obtain protection falls over time.
Philip Berke, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
John Cooper, MDC, Inc.
David Salvesen, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
Danielle Spurlock, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
Christina Rausch, MDC, Inc.
Building Resiliency in Six Disadvantaged Communities Vulnerable to Natural Disasters
Disaster plans almost never benefit from the knowledge and values of disadvantaged people, who are frequently underrepresented in planning processes. Consequently, the plans are inconsistent with the conditions, concerns, and capabilities of disadvantaged people.
This paper describes and analyzes an Emergency Preparedness Demonstration project aimed at reducing risk to life and property in six disadvantaged communities in Delaware, Maryland, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. EPD is a community-based participatory planning process aimed at building the capacity of disadvantaged communities threatened by disasters.
We employed a community-based participatory research (CBPR) methodology aimed at involving local people in research and planning to enhance community disaster resiliency. The authors of this report formed a partnership that included community development planners at the nonprofit MDC, Inc. and the faculty and students of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. With an emphasis on community-driven issue selection, community collaboration in discovery and diagnosis, and action to effect change as a part of the decision process, CBPR is particularly well suited to collaborative efforts focused on the deep disparities in disaster vulnerability.
Six factors were found to be critical for success in organizing, planning, and capacity building in the EDP communities: designing the process for building trust and motivating people; recruiting participants for inclusive collaboration; providing analytical tools to co-develop information and empower people; employing coaches to organize and facilitate sustainable community change; designing a review process to select strategies that hold communities accountable; and building capacity for implementation of strategies.
Christine A. Bevc, University of Colorado at Boulder
Tasks over Time: Exploring the Evolution of an Emergency Response
Immediately following a disaster, individuals, organizations, and resources converge to address ongoing and emerging needs and demands of a response. The need to coordinate those activities contributes to an emergent multi-organizational network from the pre-existing and emerging organizational relationships. As a result, the network produces patterns that are embedded within a geographical and temporal context.
This research focuses on the organizations, tasks, and activities immediately following the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in lower Manhattan. Using data on more than 700 organizations, nearly 150 locations, and over 6,500 interactions over the course of the twelve-day period, this analysis begins to explore the patterns of tasks and activities over the course of the immediate response. As a case study, it offers a unique opportunity to examine actions and interactions of a diverse set of organizations within a confined geographic space.
On a broader level, this research contributes directly to the understanding of this event and furthers develops the general understanding of the underlying processes impacting the evolution of emergency response.
Alison Cottrell, James Cook University
A Systems View of the Social Aspects of Wildfire in Peri-Urban Areas
The social aspects of wildfire in peri-urban areas are complex. This view of the issue has risen from six years managing a project at the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre in Australia. The paper discusses the relationships between exposure to risk, policy, planning, fire service delivery, communities, households, and individuals. What is presented is by no means definitive, but it does provide an overview of the complexity that results in a need for more localized approaches to wildfire management issues.
Jeffrey Czajkowski, Austin College
Sarah Campion, Austin College
Handling Hurricane Fatality Data with Care – How Much Does Accuracy Matter?
Over the past few decades there has been a significant increase in the number of natural disasters occurring worldwide, with many of these unfortunately being especially remarkable. Non-coincidentally, in the economics literature there has also been a steady increase in research focused on natural disasters whereby many of these studies have utilized the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) as a principal data source for fatality and damage analysis. However, issues related to the quality of disaster data in general are well-documented. Furthermore, hurricanes as a natural disaster pose their own set of unique issues in regard to accurately capturing the number of relevant fatalities such as direct vs. indirect deaths, coastal vs. inland fatalities, the role of evacuation and mitigation, etc. This research empirically models the number of fatalities occurring by storm across two separate datasets – EM-DAT and a dataset compiled by the National Hurricane Center documenting fatalities by location as well as cause - in order to better understand and quantify how much differences matter across datasets in a hurricane fatality analysis.
Developing Codebooks to Analyze Floodplain Management Recommendations
In July 2008, a congressional hearing was held to better understand the damages incurred during the Midwest Floods of 2008. In March 2009, the Army Corps of Engineers responded to a request made by Senator Boxer, who asked the Corps to report back on the status of the 97 recommendations made in Sharing the Challenge (1994). In this paper, I present a codebook for analyzing floodplain management recommendations (with examples from Sharing the Challenge) to answer a fundamental policy analysis question. Which floodplain management policy recommendations are most likely to be implemented?
Floodplain management policy recommendations made in public policy venues take on several forms, such as congressional hearing testimonies after a major event or solicited advice in reports provided by a task force (e.g., Sharing the Challenge in 1994). Strong policy recommendations frame issues in ways that lead decision-makers towards a preferred set of solutions. This paper presents a codebook for analyzing arguments that identify floodplain management issues and support recommendations for floodplain management alternatives. The codebook is used to operationalize and analyze several components of the argument: the causal model; intergovernmental relationships; accountability of government and non-government stakeholders; rationales for government intervention; scope and complexity of the issues; funding and administrative authority; and the overall robustness of the arguments and recommendations. In this paper, strengths and weaknesses of the codebook are discussed to provide ways of improving reliability and transparency in coding qualitative data for a content analysis of floodplain management recommendations.
Zheng Fang, Rice University
Philip B. Bedient, Rice University
Radar-Based Flood Alert System for Coastal Area and Collaborated Efforts for Disaster Prevention and Risk Management
Flooding is considered the number one natural disaster in the United States. Houston has a long history of serious flooding problems. Advanced flood warning systems providing accurate and timely information are vital.
Since 1997, the Rice and Texas Medical Center Flood Alert System has provided important warning information along Brays Bayou for more than 40 events. The system uses NEXRAD rainfall data, coupled with hydrologic and Floodplain Map Library modules, to deliver real-time warnings that give two to three hours of lead time to facility personnel. During Hurricane Ike in September of 2008, FAS2 successfully provided precise and timely flood warning information to TMC with the peak flow difference of 3.6 percent and the volume difference of 5.6 percent. Due to excellent performance in the past, FAS2 is a prototype for other flood-prone areas along the Gulf coast. The Texas Department of Transportation implemented a similar system for a critical transportation pass along Highway 288 in Houston.
The Severe Storm Prediction, Education, and Evacuation from Disasters Research Center at Rice University collaborates with other member universities to develop and apply advanced technologies to coastal areas that are prone to inland flooding and storm surge. The collaborative efforts seek to improve lead time and prediction accuracy so emergency agencies are able to initiate optimal strategies for disaster prevention, evacuation, and risk management.
N. Emel Ganapati, Florida International University
A Gendered Analysis to Social Capital during Disaster Recovery: Its Benefits and Downsides
Despite emerging literature on social capital and disasters, we know little about the complex interactions between social capital, disasters, and gender. In this paper, I aim to fill this gap in the literature by focusing on the consequences of social capital for women during disaster recovery period. I specifically ask the following: What are the benefits and downsides of emergent social capital to women during disaster recovery period? To answer this question, I use data from a qualitative case study of the city of Gölcük, which experienced a severe natural disaster—the August 17, 1999 earthquake that claimed more than 17,000 lives in Turkey.
I argue that social capital was a double-edged sword for women earthquake victims in Gölcük. On one hand, it was therapeutic in nature, empowering women, and helping them gain civic consciousness and avoid the stigma of charity. On the other hand, social capital contributed to the perpetuation of gender-based assumptions and exploitation of women by the media. It also put them in a clash with the government for the first time in their lives. The paper offers lessons on how policymakers can help women further the benefits of emergent social capital and overcome its downsides during disaster recovery.
Sustaining Organizational Disaster Resilience for Community-Based Non-Profits: Developing Standard Curricula and Common Routines
Despite community-based organizations’ essential role in serving vulnerable populations during disasters, no comprehensive framework has existed to build their capacity to provide services post-disaster or to signal this capacity to prospective partner organizations. The Fritz Institute’s Bay Area Preparedness Initiative sought to address these questions through a two-pronged approach: 1) Standards and Certification; and 2) making CBOs into Disaster Resilient Organizations.
The DRO theory of change focuses on developing tools for institutionalizing organizational transformation so that preparedness practices that increase resilience are sustained throughout. It seeks to develop a standard process of support practices implemented by outside agents of change that take the organization through a curriculum focused on maintaining cultural change and a regular set of practiced routines.
During the pilot project with 12 leading non-profit organizations in San Francisco, a process of inductive learning identified the following training and technical assistance elements as critical: middle management buy-in; building consensus around hazards and gaps with middle managers; drilling and repetition of disaster management practices; and a logic model for disaster preparedness that consists of disaster mission statement, staff personal preparedness, physical facilities, management organizational structure, and partners to address vulnerability. Identifying these routine processes for sustaining disaster preparedness in organizations facilitates the establishment of a common set of benchmarks for systems and practices necessary for organizations to be recognized as “disaster resilient.”
Li-ju Jang, Chung Shan Medical University
The 921 Earthquake: A Study of Post-Traumatic Growth After Extreme Suffering
The 921 Earthquake in Taiwan cause 2,415 deaths, 11,306 injuries, and left more than 110,000 people homeless. Residents of Tung Shih, Taiwan, were the target population of this study. Tung Shih experienced the highest death toll at the township level. The study examined factors promoting post-traumatic growth after extreme suffering.
The author used an intensity sampling strategy to select information-rich participants for the in-depth study. A focus group explored 2 research questions: 1) what changes have participants experienced as a result of the 921 Earthquake, and 2) what motivated participants to transform from service receiver to service provider? Eight survivors of the 921 Earthquake participated in the focus group. Their ages ranged from 40-60 at the time of interview. Qualitative data analysis software, ATLAS.ti 5.5, was used for content analysis. Several themes emerged on the subject of factors promoting post-traumatic growth.
At the personal level, participants indicated that acceptance, preparedness, self-reliance, and spirituality were factors promoting post-traumatic growth. At the community level, participants asserted that Hakka spirit, resource availability, social support networks, and serving others had positive impacts on post-traumatic growth.
The findings affirm the necessity of using relevant cultural knowledge when planning interventions. Creating social support networks offers opportunities for survivors to share their mutual concerns and coping mechanisms with each other.
Jeffrey K. Lazo, NCAR
Emily K. Laidlaw, NCAR
Nathaniel F. Bushek, NCAR
Results from an Assessment of the National Weather Service’s Storm Data Loss Estimation Methodology
Loss data on hazard events can provide valuable information to researchers and decision makers. Storm Data, the National Weather Service database, provides a comprehensive collection of loss data for all U.S. weather-related hazards. Policy makers, researchers, the public, and other end users use this information, yet there has been little analysis of the process used to generate Storm Data loss data. This raises questions about the reliability and validity of the information and the process used to create it. What sources are used to estimate damages? What types of damages are included in estimates? Is there sufficient time and training for those gathering and entering the data? How confident do NWS employees feel estimating damages?
To answer these questions, we conducted a survey of all NWS Weather Forecast Offices using a two-part, confidential, online survey designed to elicit the most candid responses possible. Survey Part A, implemented in July 2008, requested a collective response from each WFO on qualitative questions related to its loss estimation methodology. Survey Part B, implemented in November 2008, asked qualitative questions about the specific loss estimation process for randomly selected events in the preceding year.
In this paper, we present results from both survey parts and preliminary recommendations and conclusions, which will be provided to the NWS Performance Branch to improve Storm Data training and resources. This paper will also invite discussion of future research directions on loss estimation and damage data.
Wee Kiat Lim, University of Colorado at Boulder
Desperately Seeking Antecedents: An Exploratory Study Using the Resource Dependency View on Disaster Preparedness of Nonprofit Organizations
What makes nonprofit organizations devote resources to prepare for disasters? Several inherent conditions push them away from instituting disaster preparedness (DP) initiatives. Since most nonprofits are seldom directly involved in critical services, their disaster-related responses are often an afterthought or triggered by immediate experience with crises. Furthermore, they generally lack revenue-generating means and rely on external funding, therefore financial constraints often compel them to depend on volunteers and lean organizational structures that leave little slack for emergency planning.
This paper represents an initial effort to understand why nonprofit organizations commit to varying levels of preparedness. Applying a perspective rarely used in hazards and disaster studies—the resource dependency view—this exploratory study also adopts a new construct proposed by Sutton and Tierney to measure DP. Findings reveal that external financial support predicated on DP compliance, strong organizational concern for disasters, and multiple ways to provide services are associated with higher organizational DP levels. Results further suggest one pathway of how DP initiatives are instituted in nonprofit organizations. Surprisingly, organization type does not provide substantive explanations for DP.
The paper concludes by elaborating how external funding, as a means of improving DP, could be a double-edged sword. While acknowledging the merits of this approach, the paper also questions its long-term sustainability and cautions that one of its unintended outcomes might include subsequent erosion of organizational autonomy.
Yi-Sz Lin, Texas A&M University
Walter Gillis Peacock, Texas A&M University
Development of Algorithms to Estimate Post-Disaster Population Dislocation—A Research-Based Approach
This study uses an empirical approach to develop algorithms to estimate population dislocation following a natural disaster. It starts with an empirical reexamination of the South Dade Population Impact Survey data integrated with the Miami-Dade County tax appraisal data and 1990 block group census data to investigate the effects of household and neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics on household dislocation. Then, one of the statistical models is selected from the empirical analysis and integrated into the algorithm that estimates the probability of household dislocation based on structural damage, housing type, and Black and Hispanic population percentages in block groups.
This study also develops a population dislocation algorithm using a modified HAZUS approach that integrates the damage state probabilities proposed by Bai et al. (2007) and dislocation factors described in HAZUS to produce structural level estimates. These algorithms were integrated into MAEviz, the Mid-American Earthquake Centers Seismic Loss Assessment System. Sensitivity analysis examined the difference among the estimates produced by the two newly developed algorithms and the HAZUS population dislocation algorithm.
Sophia B. Liu, University of Colorado at Boulder
Informing Design of Next Generation Social Media to Support Crisis-Related Grassroots Heritage
When a crisis occurs, members of the public often attempt to document, make sense of, and share crisis-related memories through social media. Such public-generated information around crises can be transformed into knowledge that has long-term value for the benefit of present and future generations. This research explores how social media technology has the potential to support new kinds of heritage practices at the grassroots level by being both the tools and the sites for facilitating heritage production and sharing among the public—what I term “grassroots heritage.”
The primary goal of this interdisciplinary research study is to develop a conceptual framework for crisis-related grassroots heritage useful for technology designers. This will include a well-documented approach for how to conduct Web-based probes—a technology design method containing a collection of open-ended tasks using Web-based tools that evoke design ideas from participants. Web-based probes will inspire the design of next generation social media tools that support grassroots heritage practices around crisis-related memories. These tools will support “socially distributed curation” (e.g., collectively preserving, organizing, interpreting, and re-presenting artifacts) of public-generated content around crises as well as support social action (e.g., facilitating volunteer efforts, crisis-related social movements, and community discussions that promote concrete social change) to strengthen community resilience to crises.
Cindy L. Menches, The University of Texas at Austin
Greg Pekar, Texas Governor’s Division of Emergency Management
Mitigation Project Technical Assistance Program
In the past 50 years, Texas has experienced 83 disasters that resulted in federal disaster declarations and caused billions of dollars in damage. In 2008 alone, hurricanes Dolly and Ike made landfall along the Texas coast, causing an estimated $23 billion in loss of life, injuries, and property damage. While these statistics are staggering, the number of communities that have struggled to recover is equally disturbing.
In recent years, the federal government has advocated for better mitigation planning as one way to reduce the impacts of hazards and accelerate recovery. To assist communities with the development of a Mitigation Action Plan, the Federal Emergency Management Agency developed guidelines designed to help communities evaluate and prioritize potential mitigation actions. More recently, FEMA developed a guide to help communities transition from the MAP to a fully developed project implemented through federally funded mitigation assistance.
While efforts to assist communities with the development of MAPs have been successful, similar efforts to assist with the development of implementable projects remain largely ineffective. Evidence indicates that larger communities tend to be the key benefactors of federal mitigation assistance, while smaller communities fail to develop viable projects. Hence, additional tools are needed to assist communities with the development of projects that are eligible for federal funding and will reduce the future impacts of hazards. This presentation identifies efforts initiated by the Texas Governor’s Division of Emergency Management and The University of Texas at Austin to fill this need.
Christine Mitchell, Florida Atlantic University
Ann-Margaret Esnard, Florida Atlantic University
Alka Sapat, Florida Atlantic University
Hurricane Events and the Displacement Process in the United States
Displacement has traditionally been conceptualized as a phenomenon resulting from conflict or other disruptions in developing or politically unstable countries. Hurricane Katrina shattered this notion and highlighted the various dilemmas of hurricane-induced population displacement in the United States, including variable and compounding vulnerabilities of individuals, households, and communities long after the initial event. We hypothesize that disaster management agencies seek to manage both evacuation and displacement using a rigid hazard event framework—one that assumes a linear and orderly timeline and interaction between the disaster management cycle and the displacement process, derived from traditional U.S. emergency management practices.
The U.S. emergency management system approaches disaster as a hazard event while communities and people are affected by a disaster experienced through differential recovery processes. Institutionally driven timelines and benchmarks that are out of sync with individual recovery needs and timeframes result in uneven recovery and a mismatch between what assistance is needed, when it is needed, and who should provide it. We assert that displacement needs to be re-conceptualized not as an event, but as multifaceted processes pre-disposing vulnerable and other segments of the population to displacement, both short and long-term. Viewing displacement as a process allows planners, emergency managers and policy makers to incorporate a process framework that is based on differential recovery timelines during the post-disaster period. Our findings are based on a review of the literature, institutional responses of the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and examples from hurricanes Andrew, Katrina and Ike.
Pallab Mozumder, Florida International University
Hugh Gladwin, Florida International University
Fang Zhao, Florida International University
Context, Bayesian Updating, and Cry Wolf Phenomenon in Hurricane Evacuation Behavior: A Panel Study
Dissemination of hurricane forecasts, public risk perception, and evacuation decision making are intertwined, complex processes. In this study we use the Bayesian updating framework to investigate evolving risk perception and hurricane evacuation behavior over time.
In 2006, a sample of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coastal residents who were first interviewed after the 2004 Hurricane Ivan were re-interviewed about their evacuation experiences with Hurricane Katrina. The unique panel data constructed through repeated surveys allowed us to closely monitor how prior experience and evolved risk perception affected subsequent evacuation behavior. Evacuation rates reported in the 2004 survey were in the 50 percent range. Many Louisiana respondents reported long evacuation traffic delays for the hurricane, which did not hit the area.
Such experiences can be seen as a "cry wolf" phenomenon that might have negatively affected evacuation behavior during hurricane Katrina in 2005. Our empirical analysis from the survey-based panel data, however, shows that this effect is minimal. Rather, factors related to forecast information, timing of that information, and time available to evacuate played much more important roles. Based on our analysis, we sketch a decision-making framework to describe the way people receive risk information regarding an approaching hurricane and process it to make the evacuation decision subject to their contextual constraints.
Chaman Pincha, Independent Researcher
Approaches to Integrate Gender in the Tsunami Disaster Response: Experiences from India
This presentation illustrates approaches to making relief and rehabilitation inclusive of gender concerns, with an understanding that gender cuts across caste, class, and ethnicity. Though the prime focus of the presentation is on the approaches, it has briefly captured some of the pressing gender issues against the backdrop of the tsunami catastrophe in India.
In the research, led by the author, field information was analyzed in terms of practical and strategic gender needs. The analysis focused on response, which shifted power relations between women and men by challenging entrenched patriarchal institutions. The approaches may be varied by encouraging women to exercise agency in the arena of relief distribution decision making; training women in nontraditional skills, which increases their negotiating power in the markets; challenging the institutions of ownership and labor by including joint ownership of housing and equal pay, building collaborative spaces; and, at an organizational level, by recruiting grassroots female staff from the affected communities.
The focus remained on the processes, rather than on the outcome, which enabled women—and in some instances men and transgender persons—to think critically about the relationship between their preexisting vulnerabilities. Reflection on the impacts of disaster and disaster response is, in itself, a great feat.
Sharyl J.M. Rabinovici, University of California, Berkeley
Mandatory Information, Voluntary Action: An Evaluation of Berkeley’s Approach to Soft-Story Seismic Vulnerabilities in Multifamily Residential Housing
In 2005, Berkeley established an inventory of potentially hazardous buildings due to Soft, Weak, or Open-Front first story (SWOF). SWOFs have a high risk of collapsing or becoming uninhabitable after major earthquakes. The law requires owners of the 317 identified residential SWOF buildings with five or more apartment units to obtain an engineering study within two years from date of notification and inform tenants and users that the building poses a significant earthquake hazard. This research summarizes preliminary findings from an evaluation of the law’s implementation and its effects on tenants, owners, mitigation service providers, and the seismic safety of Berkeley’s multi-unit housing stock. Variations in response to the policy are used to gain insight into the decision processes of building owners related to investing in mitigation.
The data show that as of October 2008, 22 of the 110 owners that complied with the law also initiated retrofits of their buildings, even though the law did not require this step. This is triple the number of SWOF retrofits conducted in Berkeley between 2001 and 2005. Additionally, retrofits initiated after the law involved buildings with significantly more units and more expensive retrofit work per unit. Another 160 owners, however, did not complete one or both requirements during the initial compliance window, despite the possibility of a $5,000 per day fine. This suggests that information costs remain an obstacle to precautionary behavior, even when substantial legal and financial consequences are at stake.
Jenniffer M. Santos-Hernández, University of Delaware
Havidan Rodríguez, University of Delaware
Walter Díaz, University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez
William Donner, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Joseph Trainor, University of Delaware
Developing Informed Radar Technology: The Social Dimensions of Risk Communication
The Disaster Research Center (DRC) has worked with the Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) to integrate the needs and recommendations of diverse users for the past six years with National Science Foundation funding. Using a Distributed Collaborative Adaptive Sensing (DCAS) strategy, the radar system enhances the ability to detect, understand, and predict tornadoes, storms, precipitation, and other atmospheric and airborne hazards. Because they frequently affect vulnerable communities, such hazards often result in disasters. Therefore, we must understand and incorporate the cultural, social, economic, and political arrangements of society and how they could inform the technology’s capacity to enhance public safety.
To assist in the development of CASA technology, researchers at DRC documented the needs, recommendations, and perceptions of potential users. Our research strategy employs qualitative and quantitative methods, including quick response research in hurricane- and tornado-affected communities; a quantitative index indentifying vulnerable populations; a quantitative survey and in-depth interviews with emergency managers about access, use, and response to weather forecasts; and an ongoing computer-assisted telephone interview survey exploring the decision-making process of householders under tornado warning. Over 500 interviews in Oklahoma, Minnesota, Kansas, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama are now complete. This research strategy advances our knowledge about the potential users of CASA’s technology, synergizes social and engineering science, and contributes to system design efforts on the basis of knowledge about users.
Alka Sapat, Florida Atlantic University
Yanmei Li, Florida Atlantic Universit
Christine Mitchell, Florida Atlantic University
Ann-Margaret Esnard, Florida Atlantic University
Policy Learning: Katrina, Ike and Post-Disaster Housing
Hurricane Katrina has spawned a great deal of research on various aspects of the disaster and what led to failures in preparation and response. Less attention, however, has been paid to scholarly analyses of policy learning (May 1992, Birkland 2007) regarding post-disaster housing changes in response to Katrina. The implementation of policy changes based on lessons learned after Katrina also needs more attention. The focus of this paper is on policy learning and implementation in post-disaster housing.
We find that while instrumental learning took place in the form of legislation adopted after the Katrina debacle, housing policy solutions for displaced disaster victims are still lacking. Similarly, the newly adopted National Disaster Housing Strategy is an ambitiously worded document, neglecting prior housing vulnerabilities in its proposed policies. Policy analysis of hurricanes Katrina and Ike also shows that coordination between various levels of government is lacking and their management of expectations needs to be improved. Post-disaster housing policies are also relatively short-termed and event-based and do not adequately plan for long-term displacement arising from catastrophic events. Thus, we find that, despite some lessons learned and policy changes made after Hurricane Katrina, disaster housing is still problematic. This is evidenced by our instrumental case study of the impact of Hurricane Ike on Galveston and surrounding areas.
Joe Scanlon-Carlton University
Forensics if necessary....The professionalization of Canadian mass death incidents
Findings presented in this session are the result of a three year study funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC.) We explore the use of forensics to identify the dead. Based on information from events dating back to the beginning of the 20th century (Titanic, Empress of Ireland, and the 1917 Halifax explosion) and continuing through such recent events as Swissair 111, 9-11 and the Indian Ocean tsunami we articulate a number of findings. While forensics started to be used in 1949 after the Noronic fire (some dead Americans on this cruise ship were identified with the aid of fingerprints provided by the FBI) forensics were used only when as seen as necessary. Thus they were used extensively in Alberta in 1987 to identify burned victims from a train wreck but not used in the same province one year later after the Edmonton tornado. We also suggest that control of the dead has steadily increased as has the involvement of firms such as Kenyon which specialize in mass death and are driving out the kind of post-death cooperatives which existed until recently.
Aric P. Shafran, California Polytechnic State University
The Effect of Experience on Demand for Self-Protection
This paper uses experiments to analyze individual preferences for protective activities, investments that reduce the probability of a loss without affecting the severity. Of particular interest is how the demand for self-protection changes as the probability of a loss gets very small and how experience with the risk affects preferences for protection.
Before any choices were made, subjects received full information about the probability of incurring a monetary loss both with and without protection. Subjects subsequently gained experience by repeatedly making choices about whether or not to invest in the protective activity and then observing the result of their choice. Between-subjects analysis compares decisions regarding a low probability and a high probability risk, holding the expected value constant. Within-subjects analysis compares decisions with and without feedback.
In contrast to the predictions of expected utility maximization, subjects altered their behavior in response to previous outcomes. This result is consistent with empirical data on decisions about risk in the context of earthquake and flood insurance, where individuals buy more insurance immediately following adverse events. Subjects were also more likely to protect against a high-probability, low-consequence risk than against a low-probability, high-consequence risk with the same expected loss. The feedback effect partially explains this result, since negative feedback occurs infrequently for low probability risks. The results suggest experience with a risk affects preferences for self-protection and that frequent monitoring, combined with small fines for individuals who fail to self-protect, may increase the overall level of protection.
Kevin M. Simmons, Austin College
Daniel Sutter, University of Texas-Pan American
A Closer Examination of Tornado Vulnerabilities: Manufactured Homes, Nocturnal and Off-Season Tornadoes
Statistical analysis of tornado casualties has confirmed the widely recognized tornado-mobile home problem and identified that tornadoes that occur at night or during the fall and winter are more lethal, everything else being equal. The fatality rate for residents of mobile homes is 10 to 15 times greater than for those in permanent homes. Nighttime tornadoes are about three times more deadly than tornadoes during the day and lethality differs by more than an order of magnitude in February compared with July.
We examine these vulnerabilities in greater detail, considering the joint distribution of tornado fatalities by location, time of day, and month, as well as by state distributions and tornado warning performance. We find that the nocturnal and mobile home vulnerabilities are closely related and that fatalities in nighttime tornadoes are primarily occurring in mobile homes. The vulnerability of mobile homes and the greater likelihood that residents are home at night appears to account for the nocturnal vulnerability. Warning performance is poorer for fall and winter tornadoes, but the difference in performance is small relative to the difference in fatalities. Late summer tornadoes tend to occur in the states of the Upper Midwest, where tornadoes are less lethal, but the direction of causality is difficult to discern.
Gavin Smith, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
The Disaster Recovery Assistance Framework: Planning for Recovery
Existing scholarship and practice has led to a narrow understanding of the disaster recovery process, including the conditions that directly hinder the efficacy of existing pre- and post-disaster recovery planning efforts. This research defines key aspects of recovery, identifies members of the U.S. disaster assistance network (including the types of assistance they provide over time), and describes the role of planning for recovery as a means to address underlying limitations. Current findings indicate a number of preexisting institutional venues can address the shortfalls identified in the U.S. Disaster Recovery Assistance Framework if appropriately modified.
Defining characteristics of the framework include the nature of the rules governing assistance, the timing of program delivery, the level of horizontal and vertical integration across organizations, and the varied understanding of local needs before and after disasters. Three types of aid—financial, policy-based, and technical—are provided by a fragmented network of differing stakeholder groups. Members of the disaster assistance network include the public sector, quasi-governmental organizations, nongovernmental organizations, nonprofit relief organizations, the private sector, international aid organizations, and other nations, emergent groups, and individuals.
Planning provides the means to positively influence the defining characteristics of the recovery framework over time—amending overly prescriptive policies, improving the link between pre- and post-event resources and local needs, better coordinating the timing of disaster assistance, and increasing the level of horizontal and vertical integration.
Susan M. Sterett, University of Denver
Social Welfare and Katrina: Accessing Individual Assistance
The federal government paid rental assistance longer after Katrina than previous disasters. Displaced people were placed in rental housing in cities around the United States. Many came to Denver when the governor agreed to accept people and received a federal emergency declaration for Katrina. Others came to Denver because they had friends or family in the area. Because Denver found itself home to fewer evacuees, both governmental and nongovernmental organizations were less stressed than those in cities such as Houston, providing an excellent case for exploring challenges in assistance access after the hurricane.
We interviewed 91 people in two waves, each wave separated by six months. This paper explores challenges in accessing individual assistance. People were isolated and it was difficult for them to share resources and knowledge concerning what worked with Federal Emergency Management Agency. Although Denver had substantial casework assistance, many could not find out how to access it. Attending to the knowledge and skills required to access assistance, the problems of isolation, and the importance of family in supplementing state assistance would enrich our understanding of assistance for displaced people.
Joseph E. Trainor, University of Delaware
Designed for Disaster: An Analysis of FEMA’s Organizational Design during the Response to Katrina
This analysis draws on literature from the sociology of disasters and literature on complex organizations to present an analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency’s response to Katrina. I contend that if we can escape the dramatic nature of emergency response agency work, we are free to see that, at their core, these organizations are made of the same parts, subject to the same dynamics, and operate in similar ways to other social organizations.
Organizations such as FEMA are made up of structures (e.g. rules, laws, roles, plans, and regulations) representing a set of values (e.g. preference for rationality, belief in leadership and management, etc.) that constrain or empower individuals (to a greater or lesser extent) in order to ensure patterned behaviors (predictability) in a given environment (disasters). Given this reality, organizational theory has much to tell us about how this agency’s design affected its response.
To explore this proposition: (1) present a theoretical approach that addresses the nature and influence of organizational design; (2) examine the environment/context FEMA responded under during Katrina; (3) present several hypotheses about how the relationship between design and context influenced effectiveness during FEMA’s response; and (4) test these hypotheses and discuss their implications for the design of FEMA and organizations in general.
Tricia Wachtendorf, University of Delaware
James M. Kendra, University of North Texas
Diffuse Sensemaking in Large-Scale Crisis Environments
We offer the concept of diffuse sensemaking to explain how individuals dispersed across multiple organizations and wide geographic spaces make sense or come to find meaning in a particular issue or problem as it emerges or evolves. Embedded in this analysis is an appreciation of sensemaking and distributed sensemaking paradigms, as well as understandings of diffuse crowds and collectivities as noted in the collective behavior scholarship.
Our data is drawn from a study of the waterborne evacuation of Lower Manhattan on September 11, 2001, in which several hundred thousand commuters left the island in an improvised fleet of assorted harbor craft. Findings reveal 1) elements of diffuse sensemaking varied from those established through research on sensemaking; 2) a relationship between action and sensemaking that is divided (distributed) and spread (diffuse) across organizational and geographic space; and 3) diffuse sensemaking across collectivities can lead to increasingly tighter gatherings where distributed and more traditional sensemaking can occur in the process of self-organization.
We close with a consideration of diffuse sensemaking in large-scale crisis environments and propose that presence of diffuse sensemaking is likely to increase in events of high consequence, wide scope, and significant ambiguity.
Emily Wilkinson, University College London
Local-level Disaster Prevention in Mexico: Interpreting Changes in the Commitment and Capacity of Municipal Government
Understanding differences between local governments and their capacity to deal with disasters is fundamental to the promotion of disaster prevention. A decentralized partnership approach to disaster prevention is advocated by international organizations, but the willingness and capacity of local governments to formulate and implement disaster prevention strategies with the participation of communities and other stakeholders is not well understood.
Disaster prevention is assumed to be low on the list of municipal government priorities. Explanations for this lack of commitment include: low levels of risk awareness (the risk of a disaster occurring might not be visible); lack of resources (the cost of adopting protective measures may be too great); and political expediency (the benefits of disaster prevention are hard to demonstrate and governments prefer more visible activities, such as social infrastructure projects). The capacity of local government to formulate and implement disaster prevention strategies is also expected to be low, particularly in poor, rural municipalities, because of constraints such as the lack of financial resources and low education levels of emergency managers.
This paper examines the accuracy of these assumptions in municipal disaster management in southeast Mexico, an area prone to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding. A comparative case study method is used to explore determinants of change in disaster policy across five municipalities over the last ten years. Research findings reveal a more complex relationship between the commitment and capacity of municipal government than the literature suggests.
Economic Impact of Hurricanes: a Comparative Study of Katrina/Rita and Ike
The Gulf of Mexico coastal area is prone to hurricanes. Hurricane Katrina slammed the area on August 28, 2005, killing 1,800 people and causing more than $81 billion in damages, according to the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. Within a month, on September 24, another Category 3 hurricane, Hurricane Rita, made landfall near the Texas/Louisiana boarder, augmenting damages to the coastal area by about $10 billion. Approximately three years after Rita, Hurricane Ike landed in Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008, affecting areas similar to those affected by Hurricane Rita. The insured losses reached $10.7 billion and total losses were estimated at $21.3 billion.
In this paper, I use VAR models to examine the short- to long-term impacts of Katrina/Rita on labor markets and compare it to those of Hurricane Ike. Labor markets are measured by the employment and unemployment rate. Monthly time-series data used for this analysis are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Examining economic impacts of these hurricanes provides insights for understanding local economic responses to natural disasters under different macroeconomic conditions. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused severe damage to the southern coastal area, while the overall macroeconomic condition in the United States was quite stable. However, the severe national economic recession started in 2008 created a drastically different macroeconomic environment for post-Ike recovery. The reconstruction and rebuilding effort possibly have helped areas hit by hurricane Ike to retain jobs that could have been lost to the national economic recession.
Sammy Zahran, Colorado State University
Jeffrey G. Snodgrass, Colorado State University
Lori Peek, Colorado State University
Stephan Weiler, Colorado State University
Maternal Exposure to Hurricane Andrew and Fetal Distress
This study analyzes the relationship between maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew and fetal distress risk. To investigate this relationship, logistic regression and spatial analytic techniques are used. First, monthly time-series compared the proportion of infants born distressed in hurricane affected and unaffected areas. Second, 352,462 resident births were analyzed in Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Third, 1,097,409 resident births were analyzed in Florida locales with 100,000 or more residents. Fourth, 59,056 resident births were analyzed along Hurricane Andrew’s path from southern Florida to northeast Mississippi.
The results indicate that the risk of fetal distress increases significantly with maternal exposure to a catastrophic hurricane in the second and third trimesters and that the odds of fetal distress increase with exposure intensity. Specifically, second trimester maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew in Miami-Dade and Broward counties increased the risk of fetal distress by a factor of 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 1.08 – 1.33) and by a factor of 1.26 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.38) for third trimester exposed mothers, adjusting for known risk factors. The odds of fetal distress increase significantly (1.01, 95% CI, 1.01- 1.02) with the intensity of Hurricane Andrew (measured in $10 million units of property damage). Hurricane-exposed African American mothers were more likely to birth distressed infants than white mothers. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of this research regarding the evacuation and maternal care of expectant mothers living in hurricane-prone regions.