Workshop Abstracts
Ricardo A. Alvarez, Florida Atlantic University
Characterization of Impact: A Tool for Hazard Mitigation and Risk Assessment
Mitigation measures are most effective when designed to counteract specific causes of hazard damage. Consequently, identifying and understanding the damage components of a given hazard is an important step in assessing building or facility vulnerability. Damage components are the ingredients of a hazard capable of causing direct damage, such as wind pressure, water pressure and wave impact from storm surge, flying debris impact, and floating debris impact generated by hurricanes.
Equally important in vulnerability assessment is understanding causality of damage—meaning what happens and how—when specific damage components interact with a building during a hazard.
Relative to this, the main objective of a vulnerability assessment is to set a foundation for risk assessment, as well as the identification and design of effective mitigation alternatives, that reduces the potential building damage caused by hazard impacts.
A critical step toward that objective is characterizing site-specific impacts on buildings of interest. This involves quantifying the forces applied to the building by damage components and analyzing how local factors could act as impact modifiers by exacerbating or softening the effect of such impact. This characterization leads to design criteria for effective mitigation measures.
A formidable challenge in characterizing future impacts is the ability to incorporate damage components exacerbated by climate change that are continuously changing over time.
Sudha Arlikatti, University of North Texas
Sarah Gregory, University of North Texas
Laurie Long, University of North Texas
Building Back Better a Myth or Reality?
Longitudinal Study of Post-Tsunami Housing Recovery in Nagapattinam, India
The devastation wrought by the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami forced governments of numerous countries on the Asian continent to reframe requirements of sustainable post-tsunami housing reconstruction. The authors present an evaluation of efforts being pursued in the coastal villages of Nagapattinam in southern India. Building back betterthrough the enforcement of coastal regulation zones, calling for relocation of homes away from the high tide line, and an adherence to stricter building codes are strategies being adopted. The authors seek to learn whether this is, indeed, the most sustainable way forward.
To this end, 1,000 randomly selected households in 15 villages along the Nagapattinam coastline were surveyed in the summer of 2005, followed by a sub-sample panel study in 2008 that yielded a sample of 558 respondents. This presentation focuses on findings from these surveys, cataloging pre-impact housing conditions, post-impact damage to the housing fabric, housing repairs and reconstruction, relocation of homes, perceptions of safety in new homes, and the resident satisfaction with living conditions at the household, neighborhood, and the village levels.
Findings suggest that the numerous challenges and potential solutions to sustainable post-tsunami housing recovery in India are couched in the cultural aspects of the community. Thus, the design of safer and better physical spaces and stronger structures requires a holistic approach that integrates the sociocultural, psychological, and economic aspects of recovery.
Allison Boyd, CSA International, Inc.
Providing Guidance for Developing Long-Term Postdisaster Redevelopment Plans Before a Disaster Occurs
The Florida Department of Community Affairs and Division of Emergency Management, assisted by CSA International, are now completing phase two of a three-phase, postdisaster redevelopment planning initiative. The initiative will culminate in a guidebook for local governments preparing a postdisaster redevelopment plan (PDRP) for their community. All of Florida’s 203 coastal counties and municipalities are required to adopt a PDRP, but guidance is not readily available on what a PDRP should address or how to best accomplish predisaster planning for redevelopment after disasters.
The initiative is being conducted in the following phases:
—Development of draft guidelines for creating long-term PDRPs before disasters occur.
—Testing of these guidelines in six pilot communities
—Hillsborough, Manatee, Nassau, Polk, and Sarasota counties and Panama City. This phase is critical to test guideline effectiveness in helping different types of communities determine appropriate planning and content for specific post-disaster redevelopment needs.
—Objective analysis of draft guidelines to be incorporated into the final PDRP guidebook, as well as recommendations for amending PDRP planning requirements in state statutes.
Once the guidebook is completed, regional workshops will be conducted to educate local government planners on the new guidebook and to announce funding opportunities for communities interested in developing PDRPs according to the guidance.
Allison Boyd, CSA International, Inc.
A County Sea Level Rise Response Strategy
A sea level rise response strategy was recently developed for Worcester County, Maryland, to identify and assess response options for the expected impacts of accelerated sea level rise caused by climate change. The study analyzed a model of inundation caused by future sea level rise and the impact it would have on development patterns, as well as environmental and cultural resources, in Worcester County and its municipalities. The study found direct sea level rise impacts, including inundation of wetlands and lowlands, accelerated coastal erosion, increased flooding and storm surge, raised water tables, and increased salinity of bays, rivers, and aquifers.
Response options were developed for existing development, future development, infrastructure, public facilities, and natural systems. The categories of response options were: no action, protection, accommodation, and retreat. The protection option included considering which currently developed areas would be served by structural or non-structural means of holding back the sea. Accommodation is a response strategy recognizing retreat from inundation zones as inevitable, but prolongs existing development and sets rules for eventual retreat. Retreat involves allowing sea level rise to take its natural course, while avoiding impacts. Advantages and disadvantages of response methods for each option were identified and implementation issues, such as property rights, were discussed.
Liang-Chun Chen, Taiwan National Science and Technology Centre for Disaster Reduction
Introduction of Taiwan Session: Ten-Year Lessons from the Chi-Chi Earthquake
The 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake claimed thousands of lives, leveled tens of thousands of houses, and brought tremendous loss to the whole society. The most devastating earthquake in 20th century Taiwan history, the Chi-Chi Earthquake highlighted the insufficiency of emergency response and disaster mitigation in Taiwan.
The public was vocal in demands for more positive and proactive measures in the face of the challenges triggered by natural disasters. The combination of contributions, devotion, consensus, and determination of government, private sectors, nongovernmental organizations, nonprofit organizations, and academics boosted Taiwan forward and across the gap.
Ten years later, we review healed scars and reexamine what we have learned. We will present and share how the people affected gradually recovered and rebuilt their homeland. Comprehensive disaster risk reduction is present and continues to develop in Taiwan. The five topics we’ll cover are 1) national investment in, and policy on, disaster risk reduction technology; 2) improvement and innovation of earthquake engineering; 3) empowerment of local governments on disaster reduction; 4) community-based strategy of disaster mitigation; and 5) development and implementation of disaster management information systems.
Liang-Chun Chen, National Science and Technology Centre for Disaster Reduction
Mei-Ho Shih, National Science and Technology Centre for Disaster Reduction
Improvement of Capability and Capacity on Disaster Management at Local Governments by Empowerment
After the Chi-Chi Earthquake, the need to improve local government capability and capacity were frequently mentioned by the media and the public, but financial constraints and lack of manpower created a bottleneck in the delivery of the needed assistance and support from the central government. Furthermore, because of these factors, the quality of regional disaster management plans didn’t fully satisfy the rapid changes of either development or of the disaster itself.
This article will summarize the recent work completed in Taiwan to intensify local disaster management. Academic institutes and local governments joined to implement a four-year, three-stage project in all 25 local administrations that combined research and practical applications to enrich the local capacity. Five key elements are: 1) collaboration and cooperation; 2) technology transfer; 3) improvement by training; 4) financial support; and 5) quality control. The results influenced local governments to be more proactive in local disaster management and substantial funds have been set aside to further help local governments maintain safety.
The project demonstrates effective and efficient policy and the benefits of translating research result into practice. Annual evaluation of local government performance, efforts and contributions indicate the project has yielded abundant achievements.
Hsueh-Cheng Chou, Taiwan National Science & Technology Center for Disaster Reduction
Wen-Ray Su, Taiwan National Science & Technology Center for Disaster Reduction
Shang-Yu Wu, Taiwan National Science & Technology Center for Disaster Reduction
Feng-Tyan Lin, National Taiwan University Graduate Institute of Building and Planning
The Experience of Developing Safe Taiwan Information System (SATIS) in Taiwan
Disaster management is an interagency and interdisciplinary task. It involves many operations, including disaster mitigation planning, preparedness, monitoring, potential area prediction, early warning, risk assessment and relief management capability, etc. All of these operations are substantially based on information technology.
To reduce damages and losses caused by the natural hazards, an integrated and complete decision support system for decision makers is necessary. In this study, a Safe Taiwan Information System, which includes two subsystems—a response operation system for staff members and decision support subsystem for commanders—is developed for preparedness and response of typhoon hazards. It is based on a Web-GIS framework so that disaster information can be distributed via the Internet. When a typhoon is approaching, the response operation subsystem is used by National Center for Disaster Reduction staff to analyze and manage information, such as current position and possible path of typhoon, spatial distribution of rainfall, and potential areas of flooding, landslides, and debris flows.
The results of hazard risk analysis—which include potential rainfall distribution, inundation and landslide risk areas, and early warning messages—are demonstrated by the decision support subsystem in the National Emergency Operations Center, helping the commander make the right decisions in disaster preparedness and response phases. In the future, SATIS will integrate social and economic information into the assessment of natural hazard vulnerability, which can help the commander determine high-risk areas.
Parnali Dhar Chowdhury, University of Manitoba
C. Emdad Haque, University of Manitoba
Knowledge and Perception of Climate Change-Induced Extreme Environmental Events: Communicating Risk with Communities in the Canadian Prairies
Climate change is predicted to further intensify and increase the frequency of extreme environmental events—including floods, droughts, and heat waves—on the Canadian prairies during this century. The traditional one-way approach to disaster risk communication has resulted in limited positive outcomes. Risk communication is seriously challenged when dealing with uncertainties and risks not understood by the knowledge stakeholders.
Based on expert workshops, face-to-face interviews, and confirmatory surveys of communities in Manitoba, Canada, the present research investigates the state of “expert” knowledge on climate change-induced environmental extremes in the Canadian prairies. Public knowledge and perception of extreme environmental events are critical because of their role in decision making at the individual and local community level, as well as the stake they hold in policy formulation. The study also attempts to determine gaps in expert and community member knowledge, identifying elements for a two-way risk communication tool to empower the public with knowledge to enhance coping capacity.
The research found the widest gaps in expert and public knowledge exist in the technical aspects of climate change and environmental extreme events. Community members with post-secondary education were also primarily correlated with this gap in knowledge. These findings reinforce the need to pursue research on understanding how social power affects the ability of different societal groups to act on their knowledge.
W. Michael Dunaway, George Washington University
Marvine Hamner, George Washington University
Motivation for Preparedness and Continuity Planning in the Private Sector
This paper presents the results of a research project that surveyed 145 private sector entities in four geographic regions to determine factors that motivate private sector entities to adopt business continuity plans and emergency preparedness measures. The paper develops a conceptual model of private sector motivation based on four “proximities” to a hazard or disaster:
• Spatial proximity—geographic or physical distance from a hazard or regional condition that exposes a business and its operations to the effects of a disaster;
• Temporal proximity—recent or historic experience with crises, emergencies, or disasters that affected a business and it operations;
• Functional proximity—the capabilities and resources of the entity to survive a disaster and maintain continuity of operations;
• Organizational proximity—the existence of an organizational structure that fosters development of private sector capabilities for preparedness and continuity of operations.
The study analyzes the effects of these factors on an organization’s potential adoption of 12 positive measures to enhance organizational resilience and viability in a disaster or crisis. The study confirms previous research indicating that past experience and business size are two key determinants of preparedness among the private sector. However, it also identifies participation in local or regional private-public partnerships as a significant determinant of the preparedness measure adoption by private sector organizations.
Jennifer K. Dunn, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Many Agencies, One Solution, Reducing Risk: The Silver Jackets Program
“Silver Jackets allows the state and federal partners to work seamlessly ... and anticipate needs during disaster events. The Silver Jackets program maximizes the funding … and allows team members to tap into one another's needs and capabilities, thus creating … services that otherwise would not be available. The program allows the partner agencies to look ahead … and identify solutions to address those challenges before they happen.”—Manuela Johnson, Indiana Dept of Homeland Security
Silver Jackets teams are continuously operating, interagency collaboratives that work to reduce flood risk at the state level. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has teamed with states, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and other agencies to provide a unified approach to state priorities. No single agency has the full solution; often multiple programs must contribute parts of the solution. The Silver Jackets team is a forum for piecing together and implementing that full solution.
Primary goals are to:
- Facilitate strategic life-cycle flood risk reduction;
- Create or supplement a continuous mechanism to collaboratively solve state-prioritized issues and implement or recommend solutions;
- Improve processes, identifying gaps and counteractive programs;
- Leverage resources and information;
- Improve flood risk communication and present a unified interagency message;
- Establish close relationships to facilitate integrated post-disaster recovery.
Two pilot teams were initiated in 2005 and 2006. Efforts are underway to establish a team in at least one state in every Corps division this year, with the ultimate goal of offering an interagency team to every state. For further information, visit the National Flood Risk Management Program.
Elaine Enarson, Consulting Sociologist
Gendering the Agenda in the US?
What has happened as a result of the past decade of major international conferences on gender and disaster? The short answer—not much. I think about gender mainstreaming in the global south with more optimism than in the United States, notwithstanding new initiatives such as EMPOWER for women in emergency management. The discussion will highlight some explanatory factors and trends.
In developing countries:
• Pressure from grassroots women’s organizations and their links with civil society, e.g. GROOTS
• Routinization of mainstreaming in humanitarian relief (checklists)
• Influential gender analysis, e.g., Oxfam on the tsunami
• Internationalization of the virtual Gender and Disaster Network
• UN projects on gender and disaster (UNDP, UNIFEM)
• ISDR leadership, e.g. China conference (2009)
• Increasing scholarship on gender, development, and disaster, e.g. from the tsunami
• Strong human rights focus in disaster risk reduction work
• Strong and growing links between gender, disaster risk reduction, and climate change
In highly developed countries:
• None of the above
• Other examples, like Canada’s strong commitment to public health and strong women’s health movement; New Zealand’s key male champions and young leaders; Europe/UK gender and climate change alliances
Continuing barriers in the United States:
• Little push from the ground
• Little pull from institutional leaders
• Lack of connection with government at all levels
• Lack of connection with sustainable development/social justice movements
• Minimal academic base (researchers, faculty, teaching resources, mentoring)
• Lack of awareness
• Lack of buy-in
Somer A. Erickson, Oklahoma Climatological Survey
Harold E. Brooks, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
James G. LaDue, National Weather Service
Mark Shafer, Oklahoma Climatological Survey
Emergency Managers and Weather Information: Communication and Training
The National Weather Service provides a wide variety of products and services used by the government, public, and private sectors across the country. Officials in the government sector use NWS information to make decisions that affect the public.
Emergency managers are one of the primary users of NWS information. They play a key role in the weather warning process during threats of severe weather. Since emergency managers’ use of weather information is considerable, it is important to understand how they use the information and deal with the uncertainties involved, as well as how they communicate with the NWS, the public, government agencies, and each other.
Standardized training on NWS products is currently limited. Although NWS products are valuable to emergency managers, effective use of the NWS products is somewhat limited. There are few individuals in local jurisdictions with a full understanding of the NWS products and the ability to use them to maximum effectiveness.
This research allows for the opportunity to work and train with local officials to create a better understanding of the NWS products and their usage. The goal is to identify needed training and communication structures, and fill gaps in understanding. Through this study, the hope is to build a training program that enhances communication between the NWS and emergency managers.
Myrtle Evans-Holland, Morgan State University
Perceived Preparedness and Preparedness Behavior for Terrorism and Natural Disasters Among Low-income African Americans in Maryland
Marginalized groups, the poor, and minorities suffer disproportionately in disasters where inequities are more evident during the response and recovery stages. Minority populations can experience inequities because of low incomes and limited resources that lessen disaster impacts. Scientific knowledge about differences in disaster preparedness behavior for terrorism and natural disasters within racial/ethnic groups is limited. To address the limitation and identify factors associated with preparedness behaviors among the participants, data were analyzed from a sub-sample (n = 219) of low-income African Americans from four Maryland communities.
Independent associations between perceived preparedness and having a family emergency plan (FEP) or more survival kit items (SKI) were examined. Internet access and the expectation of social support were examined to determine if they caused variation in the association between perceived preparedness and preparedness behavior.
Significant independent associations between perceived preparedness and having an FEP or more SKI emerged in the analysis. Internet access modified the association between perceived preparedness and having more SKI (AOR = 5.0, 95% CI = 2.9 – 8.8). Expectation of social support did not modify the associations.
This study provided substantial evidence that, among low-income African Americans in Maryland, more of those who perceive preparedness actually engaged in preparedness behaviors. It further demonstrated appraised resources, Internet access, and facilitated problem-focused coping behaviors increased preparedness behavior. The study provides baseline information needed to develop disaster preparedness interventions and educational strategies for the target population.
Cecilia Castro García, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Xochimilco
Some Reflections on the Normative Framework of Disaster Risk Management, Civil Protection and Gender Equality in Mexico
Disaster risk and inequitable gender relations are the result of a historical social construct, and therefore can and should be modified to reduce disaster risks and establish equity in gender relations as an inherent part of human development and ecological management. The study and implementation of gender equality in disaster risk management requires a holistic, multidisciplinary, intersectoral, and historical analysis to be effectively articulated and understood in specific community and territory situations. For its part, the risks of disaster and environmental management are not yet fully incorporated into the work of women's groups and the feminist agenda.
Regulatory and legal developments that incorporate the managing disaster risk and gender equity approach are moving apart in Mexico. Government policies that support the prevention and reduction of disaster risk in urban and rural areas with social equality are still in their early existence. Attention is still reactive to obvious damage and deaths.
These developments require urgent strengthening of democracy and the support and recognition of the local leadership of women in their communities if they are to decrease economic disadvantages, psychological and social subordination of women, and to reduce the factors that create situations of risk, as well as adapt to global climate change, and be able to face the effects of disasters with equality.
Christina Griffin, University of South Carolina
Gender and Social Capital: Examining Social Networks Postdisaster
In the last decade, social capital has been linked to community resilience following disaster. A comprehensive understanding of the role of social capital in post-disaster recovery, however, cannot be achieved without a focused analysis of social inequalities—such as race, class, and gender—and their effect on how people access and use social capital following a hazard.
Gender is particularly important in this endeavor as the concept’s social construction illuminates responsibility and role-taking processes that are often adopted by individuals postdisaster. This research examines social networks in the recovery phase of Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Texas counties of Galveston and Chambers.
The research focuses on three aspects of social networking as they relate to the search for and acquisition of child care and stable housing: 1) the influence of gender on the exchange of information and favors within social networks; 2) the differences between the social networks of partnered and single parents; and 3) the role of kin, friendships, and recent acquaintances, as well as the spatial or aspatial configuration of social networks. Preliminary results from this research indicate that, in addition to the influence of gender on social network support, spatiality of networks and pre-disaster network ties are intricately tied to acquisition of childcare and stable housing post disaster.
P.J. Havice-Cover, Colorado Medical Society
The Politics and Natural Hazards of Disaster Response
The call comes in—a catastrophic event has occurred and you are requested to respond to the disaster site. You’ve packed your “go bag,” taken ICS courses and other relevant training, joined a recognized response group, have a plan for your family and business, and you’re on your way to the field. But what happens in the field is reminiscent of your not-so-fond memories of grade-school playground politics.
Understanding behind-the-scenes agendas can give you an edge, so you can focus on helping others when it counts. This fast-paced course has tools to help you keep your cool when communication is deteriorating and human interactions are tested. Profiles of personality types commonly seen at disaster sites include the Know It All, the Ineffective Leader, the Joker, the Cloak of Invisibility (I’m really busy drinking coffee and talking on my cell phone) and the Worker Bee. Shedding light on why people act in certain ways can help manage expectations for a more effective response.
Jennifer A. Horney, University of North Carolina
Did the Type of Evacuation Order Issued Predict Evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina, 2003?
Purpose. Evacuation orders are effective in reducing excess morbidity associated with hurricanes and flooding. This study compared evacuation orders issued to residents of several high-risk, coastal counties in North Carolina to determine if the issuance of an order or the type of order was associated with evacuation.
Methods. A cross-sectional study of 570 residents of three counties affected by Hurricane Isabel was conducted. Census blocks were stratified by flood zone and 30 blocks were randomly selected from each flood zone. Seven interviews were conducted at random locations within selected blocks. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted and risk differences and 95 percent confidence intervals were produced.
Results. Residents who believed their home was under an evacuation order had a reduced risk of evacuation failure of 32 percent (16 percent, 48 percent), as did those who did not know whether an evacuation order covered their home 18 percent (3 percent, 34 percent). The type of order issued was significantly associated with the proportion of county evacuees. The largest reduction in risk of evacuation failure was in Perquimans County, where a voluntary evacuation order specifically recommended evacuation for mobile home residents and those living near water (RD = 46 percent; 27 percent, 65 percent).
Conclusions. Changing an evacuation order from voluntary to mandatory before hurricane landfall might have caused confusion in Pasquotank County and led to lower evacuation rates. The specificity of the evacuation order issued in Perquimans County, although voluntary, increased evacuation rates.
David King, James Cook University
Alison Cottrell, James Cook University
How Do We Identify Climate Change Impacts Within Community Hazard Mitigation?
Climate change presents opportunities as well as increased risk for hazard mitigation. International concern about risks associated with climate change offers an opportunity to enhance community-level mitigation of climate-induced natural hazards. But while media focus raises public awareness and government adaptation strategies, climate change impacts could pose the risk of more catastrophic events.
The certainties of climate change are increased temperature, its associated ocean expansion, and the resulting sea level rise—exacerbated by melting of icecaps. Sea level rise will be most clearly experienced in the form of surge events accompanying hazards. The effects of these changes remain uncertain and various scenarios have predicted more severe droughts, floods, tropical cyclones and hurricanes, and severe storms.
The problem for emergency managers and researchers is how to isolate likely climate change impacts from ongoing hazard mitigation, awareness, and preparedness efforts. Incorporating increased risk scenarios into hazard preparedness is also difficult, requiring enhanced adaptation strategies on the part of households, communities, and local governments.
Susan B. King, Independent Researcher
Integrating Hazard Notification on a Geographic and Affinity Group Basis
Since 2001 numerous attempts have been made to improve public warnings, including text messaging, e-mails, autodialers, and digital message displays. This technology transfer research project anticipates the creation of a multi-purpose public communication system technically able to:
• Deliver (not just issue) warnings of pending natural disasters, weapons of mass destruction catastrophes, and local public safety concerns to at least 80 percent of the public in an affected geographic area in less than 90 seconds—24 hours a day, seven days a week.
• Reach the deaf, hard of hearing, and non-English speakers.
• Perform external resource mobilization and deliver messages to groups requiring duty notification or mobilization in less than two minutes.
• Deliver situation-specific information for geographic and affinity-based public service information—e.g., parents of children by specific school, patients with heat- or atmospheric-sensitive conditions, or people affected by shutdowns of water, utilities, and highways.
• Use inexpensive “smart receivers,” cell phones, or other digital devices to display and rouse users.
• Initiate messages at all levels of government.
• Operate using existing infrastructure, without requiring pre-existing databases.
• Avoid delays from “queuing” limits of text messaging and telephone systems.
Frederick Krimgold, Virginia Tech
International Climate Change Network (ICCN)
The issue of global climate change has become a dominant concern in all parts of the world. There is scientific consensus on its reality and probable causes. International collaboration in the atmospheric and environmental sciences has been facilitated by intergovernmental organizations and international professional societies. Coordination and collaboration on climate change mitigation and adaptation is critically needed in engineering and technology. Technological adaptation will be necessary to accommodate global environmental change. The combined global resources of engineering disciplines in research and training must be effectively and rapidly mobilized to meet these challenges.
For this reason, the International Climate Change Network (ICCN) brings together leading centers of engineering for climate change adaptation in the countries that produce the most greenhouse gas (United States, China, India, Indonesia, and Brazil). These centers are based in university engineering and environmental planning departments, government agencies, and the private sector. The primary focus of ICCN is the development of an integrated engineering approach to the problems of technology research, training, and implementation of adaptation solutions. This will bring together the disciplines of electrical, chemical, mechanical, civil engineering, and physical planning.
As of June 2009, 13 institutions from the five countries have committed to participate in the ICCN. Initial activities include the development of an engineering research catalog in participating countries and the development of cross-national collaborative research programs.
M. Monirul Q. Mirza, Environment Canada
Grace Koshida, Environment Canada
Daria T. Smeh, Environment Canada
Developing and Testing Adaptation Baselines for Flood Hazards: Case Studies from Red River, Canada, and Bangladesh
Although floods are a natural phenomenon, human intervention in floodplains can increase or decrease flood risk and damage. Disaster mitigation effectiveness and the adaptive capacity of economic sectors, regions, and activities need to be measured.
This study’s main objective was to develop and test methodologies to create a measure of hazard vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the developed and developing world. This measure is called an adaptation baseline. Another goal was to quantify adaptive capacities in response to historic and future floods in two locations—Canada and Bangladesh.
Severe floods occurred in the Canadian Red River Basin in 1950, 1979, 1997 and 2009, affecting most of Manitoba’s 700,000 people. In the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, 90 million people were affected by the devastating flood of 1998.
A set of about 100 possible indicators for the two case study locations were assembled from the past 55 years worth of flood level and damage data. These adaptation baseline indicators can be used to quantify changes in adaptive capacity and vulnerability to floods and to demonstrate whether flood preparedness and mitigation measures have improved or not. The results generated from the Red River Basin and Bangladesh will contribute to climate change-related adaptation planning knowledge, as well as the design and implementation of better flood mitigation measures.
Daniel P. Morath, University of South Carolina
SoVI Lite: Reducing the Complexity of the Social Vulnerability Index
The Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) was developed by the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute in 2003 as “a comparative metric that facilitates the examination of the differences in social vulnerability among counties. It shows where there is uneven capacity for preparedness and response and where resources might be used most effectively to reduce the pre-existing vulnerability” (Cutter et al. 2003).
SoVI is derived from a statistical procedure using standard variables as inputs into a principal components analysis to reduce the number of variables to a smaller set of indicators. The resulting components are summed based on the tendency to increase or decrease vulnerability, yielding an aggregate SoVI score. The complexity presented by these methods, however, hinders the replication of SoVI by emergency managers and subsequent implementation of SoVI into local, state, and federal plans.
To reduce the complexity of the SoVI metric while maintaining statistical integrity, we employed a combination of statistical methods and theoretical reductions, developing eight explicit versions of “SoVI lite.” The robustness of these aggregates was verified using both statistical methods and visual interpretation (i.e., GIS mapping). Additionally, sensitivity analyses were performed to test the statistical robustness of each SoVI lite at differing geographic scales. These analyses produced three robust versions of SoVI lite. While initial results indicated these versions could be downscaled to a finer level of geography within the study area, transporting the metric from local to regional level compromised statistical integrity.
Oluponmile Olonilua, Texas Southern University
Do Existing State Planning Mandates Matter in FEMA-Approved Plans under the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000? A Comparison of Cities in States with Existing Planning Mandates Versus Cities in States without Mandates
Before the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA2K), some states required local governments to include hazard mitigation elements in their comprehensive land use plans, while others did not. Past research has investigated the effect of planning mandates on the quality of local hazard mitigation plans by comparing the quality of local plans in states with mandates with those in states without mandates. This research answers the question: Do cities in states with existing mandates address more required issues in their Federal Emergency Management Agency-approved hazard mitigation action plans than cities in states without mandates?
The assumption would be that cities in states with mandates have more experience in responding to hazard mitigation directives and would incorporate them into their action plans more easily than those who do not. This study focuses on collaboration, public information and awareness, evacuation, sheltering, special needs population, terrorism, and technological hazards. FEMA-approved hazard mitigation plans from the following areas (in existing-mandate states) were evaluated: Miami-Dade, Florida; Charleston, South Carolina; and Randolph, North Carolina. Entities evaluated in non-mandated states were the Houston Galveston Area Council, the Guadalupe Blanco River Authority in Texas, and Jefferson, Alabama. T-statistics comparing these cities show no statistically significant differences between the two groups at alpha level 0.05.
Chaman Pincha, Independent Researcher
Gender Mainstreaming for Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights: Insights from Tsunami Disaster Response in the Tamil Nadu State of India
In most disasters in Asia, sexual and reproductive health rights (SRHR) remain a forgotten agenda. In the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, there were many reasons why SRHR was haphazardly addressed. This paper focuses on the major causes of SRHR neglect and its impact on males, females, and the transgender population.
The causes include lack of stakeholder understanding of SRHR; social, economic, and political vulnerability of women; differential gender roles and gendered coping strategies; and gender-blind policy and programmatic response. While the ex gratia policy of the government is an example of response, the failure of water and sanitation intervention demonstrates gender insensitivity at the program level.
Impacts include increased domestic violence and alcoholism and its impact on children and the elderly, increased work burden on women and girls, early marriages, political suppression of women’s voices, and in some cases, forced pregnancies to compensate for the death of children. SRHR intervention for the transgender population was completely missing, exacerbating pre-disaster invisibility. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations that ground SRHR concerns in the context of disasters and mainstream SRHR in all phases of disaster management.
Jane E. Rovins, American Military University
Stand-Alone Mitigation Plans and Recovery Costs: A Study of the Florida Local Mitigation Strategies
Minimal research has been conducted on the efficacy of stand-alone mitigation plans to reduce disaster loss. The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 and its emphasis on mitigation planning make analysis of its efficacy in reducing disaster expenditures important. The dearth of related research increases the relevancy of this study, which sought to determine whether mitigation planning improved community resilience to disaster by reducing disaster recovery costs.
The research investigated whether vulnerable populations and property are protected from natural disaster loss by continued mitigation planning investments under the present legislative framework. This research examines Local Mitigation Strategies implemented in Florida and more than 25 federally declared disasters from 1994 through 2004. The Local Mitigation Strategy was the pilot program for the planning requirement introduced in the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. A multivariate model was applied to determine whether disaster expenditures or per capita expenditures could have been reduced if a mitigation plan had been in place.
Findings indicated having a plan did not reduce either type of expenditure. Based on these findings, changes in how mitigation planning is conducted under the current framework are strongly recommended to reduce the loss of life and property from natural disasters.
Wesley Shaw, Blue Urchin Consulting
The StormSmart Coasts Network: Connecting Coastal Decision Makers to Resources and Each Other
Thanks to the diligence and hard work of hazards specialists, coastal communities now have more information than ever about the risks they face from natural hazards and the steps they can take protect their community from harm. The sheer bulk of the material, however, is often overwhelming for people working at the local level. A relevant new report, study, or Web site is seemingly released each week.
The StormSmart Coasts Network is a new program dedicated to helping decision makers in coastal communities address the challenges of storms, flooding, sea level rise, and climate change by providing a continuously updated place to find and share the best resilience resources and tools available. The network of Web sites provides information on steps communities can take before, during, and after storms—including a growing catalog of funding options. It also houses a growing number of collaborative tools, including forums and pages for participating communities. The site is founded on the strong legal and equitable foundation of No Adverse Impact floodplain management and land use.
This project is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s RiskWise Initiative, the Gulf of Mexico Alliance, the Northeast Regional Oceans Council, Edward A. Thomas, Esq., Michael Baker Jr., Inc., and others. Its current scope includes the states of the Gulf of Mexico and the five coastal states of New England.
Joanne R. Stevenson, University of South Carolina
Assessing Spatial and Temporal Clusters of Recovery:
The Rebuilding of Coastal Mississippi Following Hurricane Katrina
Recovery from natural disaster is not an end point. It is a process, often spanning years, and experienced unevenly through both space and time. Unfortunately, most recovery studies lack the spatial and temporal resolution to fully understand the processes of rebuilding and recovery. This research presents the use of a spatial scan statistic (SaTScan) to identify spatial and temporal clusters of building permits issued in Mississippi following Hurricane Katrina. This method can help planners and recovery managers locate where and when high levels of rebuilding have occurred to understand the drivers behind these differing and often higher levels of recovery. This knowledge can affect resource distribution decisions, as well as allow managers to better understand conditions that influence the pace and location of rebuilding.
Implementing spatial and temporal analytics revealed significant space-time clusters of building permits along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, indicating recovery does not proceed uniformly throughout the recovery period or in the area of impact. This research found, in addition to the amount of damage sustained by an affected area, there is some evidence that underlying physical and demographic characteristics also influence the temporal and spatial trends of built environment recovery following a disaster event.
Shigeo Tatsuki, Doshisha University
Evacuation and Sheltering Assistance Planning for Special Needs Population: Kobe Disadvantaged Population Mapping Project
This presentation reports the results from the 2008 Kobe Disadvantaged Population Mapping Project, which demonstrates the use of GIS for mapping special needs populations to facilitate community-based evacuation and sheltering assistance planning. In response to a national government request, Kobe city administration collated separate social service recipient databases, resulting in an integrated database involving 120,000 individuals considered potentially vulnerable in times of disaster. The database identified 4,329 people with physical disabilities in Hyogo Ward.
The 2008 project geocoded and mapped them on landslide and tsunami hazard layers. There were 914 individuals found to be residing in hazardous areas. These individuals were visited by interviewers and 612, or 67 percent, responded to a structured questionnaire that measured demographics (i.e., age and gender), levels of disability, social isolation, housing fragility, and physical immobility. A social vulnerability score was then calculated as a function of these five variables for each respondent. Seventeen percent of those who responded were found to be the most vulnerable and require priority assistance at times of disaster.
A social vulnerability weighted kernel density map of people with special needs was also created. The weighted kernel density map indicated which areas require more manpower to assist the special needs population in evacuation and sheltering. The project product maps helped representatives from special needs groups, community emergency response teams, community social services, and emergency management centers initiate evacuation and sheltering assistance planning in the project areas.
Keh-Chyuan Tsai, National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering
Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Research and Practice in Taiwan:
10 Years after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake
The magnitude 7.3 Chi-Chi Earthquake occurred at 1:47 a.m. on September 21, 1999. This devastating earthquake caused the loss of about 2,500 human lives and severely damaged the built environment in a wide swath of the country.
Since the quake, a number of earthquake engineering studies have been launched and the results have been implemented in the form of earthquake hazard mitigation practices, including the Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System and the national seismic force requirements upgrades for building and bridges near fault-prone areas.
The Chi-Chi Earthquake also showed the vulnerability of school buildings during an earthquake. In this presentation, the research results of the seismic retrofit and performance evaluation of school buildings are introduced. It includes the development of simplified and detailed evaluation procedures used by the school administrators and professional engineers, respectively. Cost-effective school building retrofit methods were examined in a full-scale laboratory experiment, then verified in in-situ collapse tests of several old school buildings.
A nationwide government-funded retrofit program based on the research will be conducted from 2009 to 2012. The presentation will conclude with discussion of cost-effective seismic energy absorbing braces—developed at the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering—used in a number of retrofit projects and new offices, hospitals, and residential and industrial buildings.
Louise Liang-Jung Wei, Taiwan National Science Council
National Science & Technology Program for Hazards Mitigation in Taiwan
In order to improve the efficiency of hazard mitigation, the National Science Council of Taiwan has taken a number of initiatives in the development of hazard mitigation technology since 1982, including the first, second, and third five-year plans for hazards prevention research and the National Science and Technology Program for Hazards Mitigation.
In this article, the contents and achievements of the NAPHM are briefly reviewed. The NAPHM has provided a mechanism for integrating and translating research results into technologies that can be implemented. To further enhance the development and implementation of disaster technology, the NAPHM was transformed in 2003 into the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction.
The plan of establishing the NAPHM was first proposed in November 1997, followed by a year of preparation. The first phase of the program started in 1999 and ended in 2001. The second phase started in 2002 and ended in 2006. This is an integrated program across ministries and councils. The participating ministries and councils joined forces with the NSC to promote, execute, integrate, and finally transfer research results into hazard mitigation applications. A total of 12 ministries and councils participated in the program. The planned total budget of the program is NT$ 1,038 million for the first phase and NT$ 3,007 million for the second phase.
Anne Wein, U.S. Geological Survey
Laurie Johnson, Laurie Johnson Consulting
Adam Rose, University of Southern California
Richard Bernknopf, U.S. Geological Survey
Months and Years after a Magnitude 7.8 Southern California ShakeOut Earthquake: Developing the Recovery and Reconstruction Scenario
The U.S. Geological Survey magnitude 7.8 earthquake ShakeOut scenario in southern California is extended into issues that occur during the recovery phase. In this effort, emphasis was added to the costly and complex disaster recovery phase, which is less understood and exercised than emergency response.
In the context of the U.S. disaster management landscape, we applied a time-task recovery framework to compile, explore, and assess ShakeOut recovery issues under five categories—damage assessment and debris removal, restoration of lifeline and essential services, housing and social recovery, business and economic recovery, and disaster management and financing. We drew from disaster literature, expert opinion, spatial analyses, and ShakeOut and Golden Guardian 08 workshops and recovery exercises.
During the recovery phase, interdependencies among the tasks created cascading effects, some of which were captured by the $96 billion economic impact analysis, while others were summarized qualitatively. We attempted the final step of connecting results to policy discussions about averting problems through mitigation, planning, and/or stakeholder collaboration. Based on our insights from the ShakeOut experience, we present lessons learned from the successes, shortfalls, and challenges of this effort and conclude that future research and practice will pay attention to long-term recovery, interdependencies, multilevel decision making, representative local studies, the effect of mitigation and enhanced resilience on recovery time paths, acceptable recovery targets and priorities, and strengthening connections with recovery stakeholders.
Emily Wilkinson, University College London
An Enabling Environment for Local Level Disaster Risk Reduction in Mexico?
This paper examines the legal and institutional framework for disaster management in Mexico, assessing the extent to which it enables sub-national governments to develop and implement disaster risk reduction strategies. Despite federal government commitment to the Hyogo Framework for Action and the principles of decentralized, participatory disaster risk reduction, local government willingness and capacity to develop pro-active disaster policies is limited by a number of broad institutional constraints, as well as by problems related specifically to the national civil protection system.
The national civil protection system (SINAPROC) has a formally decentralized structure and policies that encourage disaster prevention at all levels, but it lacks a clear disaster prevention strategy and a coordinated structure to ensure disaster risk reduction is taken into account in local development planning decisions. Municipal governments are constrained by their lack of human, financial, and administrative resources and are highly dependent on federal and state governments, undermining their autonomy. This paper explores these limitations and the constraints to municipal-level disaster risk reduction in Mexico. It assesses proposed disaster policy reforms that promote a more integrated, cross-sector approach to disaster management, reorienting the civil protection system to one based on obligations, as opposed to recommendations.
Jie-Ying Wu, Ming-Chuan University
Yi-Chun Liu, Taiwan National Science & Technology Center for Disaster Reduction
Fostering Community Resilience—Taiwan’s Community-Based Strategy for Disaster Reduction
Taiwan is recognized as an area at relatively high risk from significant natural hazards—earthquakes, typhoons, floods, landslides and debris flows—because of its location and hilly topography. Certainly, natural hazards are a major threat to Taiwan, and no community is safe from them.
There is no doubt that community is the key factor in reducing risks, vulnerability, and disaster impacts. Rapid population growth and high occupancy in hazard-prone areas are also likely to increase the effects of natural and human-caused hazards. Past devastating disasters demonstrate that the emergency capabilities of local governments could be overwhelmed. Community then becomes critical in responding. Consequently, finding ways to strengthen community capability has become a trend for government institutions.
This paper describes the recent development of community-based disaster management initiatives in Taiwan. We would like to take this opportunity to share Taiwan’s experience with practitioners and researchers in the disaster management community. By implementing the Community-Based Disaster Management Project, we are able to put our research results into practice and help communities promote hazard awareness, reduce vulnerability, strengthen preparedness and response capabilities, and build resilience. Project implementation is the best platform to formulate public-private partnerships and implant the concept of disaster risk reduction in daily life. Several successful cases will be presented.