Hurricane Warnings and the Cone of Uncertainty

Mon. 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m., Interlocken C

This study focuses on the meaning of the cone of uncertainty, a commonly used hurricane track graphic, as described by scientists (hurricane specialists, broadcast meteorologists, and government officials) and the general public. First, forecasters were interviewed to determine their communicative objectives in using the graphic. Second, members of the public in New York, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Florida were interviewed to determine their understanding of the cone. The findings show a disconnect between what forecasters want to communicate and how the public interprets the information. More study findings and implications of communicating uncertainty visually will be discussed.

Gina Eosco, Presenter
University of Oklahoma