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Pielke opened the discussion by saying that forecasting has only recently begun playing a prominent role in planning. Still, while people generally concur that the 1997-98 El Niño forecasts were excellent, what was actually forecast? There were 19 different descriptors of El Niño global impacts ranging from no effect to very strong. So, the relationship between El Niño and global climate events still needs clarification. Much was blamed on El Niño, but what can or can't be reliably connected to it? For example, if FEMA reports that disaster costs in El Niño years were equal to or less than in previous years, can it be established that this is a consequence of good forecasts and response, or is it possible that these costs would have been low, regardless?
Ed O'Lenic discussed the science of El Niño forecasts in terms of ENSO, dynamics, monitoring, and prediction. The 1997-98 El Niño allowed scientists to capitalize on long-term data collection; explaining nearly all aspects of El Niño and La Niña using a very good monitoring system (e.g., buoys in the Pacific) to collect detailed information. Regarding forecast methods, the picture of one El Niño to the next is reliable, so by averaging them together good results are obtained. Still, while "skills scores" are high, there are some errors.
NOAA's outreach to emergency management agencies includes a WWW page (http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov) that offers a "U.S. Threats Assessment" providing 3-day information. Hydrological models incorporating precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature, give 3-10 day forecasts on the "Assessment" page. El Niño dramatically increases heat and moisture in many places, and global maps showing this are at the WWW site.
The Web site also has an interactive page, which allows other agencies and users to participate. There, the forecasts were discussed, criticism entertained, and the product improved. El Niño creates shifts in patterns, so NOAA will be trying to forecast distribution shifts in future. O'Lenic asked for feedback from participants regarding the webpage's usefulness, and invited all to attend the e-mail debriefing held each week. He further reported that the long term plan for the Threat Assessment Page is to interlink it with agencies such as the National Weather Service (NWS), to give easily understandable information to the public.
La Niña (which is arriving) forecasts will have relevance to flood preparedness planning efforts. La Niña effects should generally be the opposite of El Niño: temperature time series show an interdecadal trend that indicate it will be wetter in the north, north central, and northeastern part of the U.S., while the south-central U.S. will experience increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation.
O'Lenic was asked how NOAA's information impacts other countries, especially in Latin America. He reported that NOAA does not forecast for other countries but does consult with them when asked. Another comment encouraged NOAA to involve the insurance industry in the weekly e-mail conference.
Ellis Stanley recently moved from Atlanta to Los Angeles and was becoming conversant in earthquakes when El Niño "arrived." He faced the question and challenge of how the city would change its primary response focus-from earthquakes to El Niño.
In October the first El Niño Summit was held in Los Angeles, partly to consider the potential economic impacts of the event. In a city of just over 3 million souls, there are 42 departments whose El Niño response functions had to be integrated and improved. Among the actions taken were organized field trips with teams of first responders (e.g., fire, police, public works), that visited neighborhoods to talk with people. This developed into a tremendous educational tool, especially when telling residents their street was part of a floodway! The city also opened an information phone line to call: 1-888-ElNiño1. The line was monitored to see who was calling and what questions were asked (however, it was only available in two languages; in order to reach all citizenry, it would need to be offered in 12). Not surprisingly, when it rained the number of calls would increase. The city worked with the telephone company to meet peak demands.
In terms of swift water rescues, the number of events and number of deaths were down, probably due to information provided, training conducted, and videos used in school systems, which alerted people to the importance of keeping out of streams.
In another case, there were approximately 26 homes threatened by rain because of their location in a flood prone area. Through fast-track permitting and Stanley's declaration of emergency (imminent threat) the city was able to ensure the homeowners/property suffered no damage. Interestingly, mildew caused by the rains became an important health issue.
Stanley believes that having a close working relationship with National Weather Service (NWS) and the media is important. The NWS served to keep the media in check, not allowing them to blow El Niño too far out of proportion. Ultimately, at the local level information is the key. It is critical to distribute information advising people of the risk and what can be done about it. Sitting down with people and discussing "what-if" situations is useful. Mitigation grants also helped with protecting residences. Having mayoral support, e.g., a mayor not afraid to call on local, state, and federal government, is also very useful.
Nina Minka addressed international disaster mitigation and response to El Niño. There were 21 disaster declarations made by U.S. Ambassadors in 18 countries related to the 1997-98 El Niño. In South America, Indonesia, and East Mid-Africa drought and floods were the major declarations. The impacts were severe as there were losses in terms of agriculture, health facilities, transportation, and hydroelectric power production (actual costs are still being worked up). Over the year, the U.S. AID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance has been working with countries to mitigate impacts by providing relief assistance, e.g., water, medicine, shelter, and but it also wants to encourage pre-disaster mitigation programs worldwide. The success of climate forecasts was very important because they coincided with reality. The ability of the scientific community to predict El Niño and give more local information via information sharing was critical. Climate fora were established to bring together professionals from a variety of disciplines. Using the forecasts, participants developed 3-month climate outlooks. Then people from all levels of the response community undertook activities to reduce potential impacts. For example, information was distributed and clogged drainage pathways were cleared.
Minka believes there is a need for improved planning and preparedness in the future and better understanding of the limitations of climate forecasts. She noted, for example, that 1) forecast applications are still emerging, 2) probabilities are misunderstood, 3) there are weak links to climate sensitive sectors, and 4) there is a need to further tailor information to the local scale. Strategies to address these issues include: more research, analysis of current/past events, capacity building (e.g., build up local meteorological organizations to use information, which would help strengthen decision making and decrease impacts), and creation of regional climate information systems (RCIS) to integrate all the above. Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean, are all developing RCISs, or have them in place in some capacity (e.g., the Pan American Climate Information System). These efforts should allow for better response, especially to the upcoming La Niña.
Questions about communications issues were posed and Minka related the importance of meetings (held with a wide range of organizations) to help people learn how to better explain meanings of technical data. She also emphasized the importance of working with the media to ensure the right messages get sent.
In questions to the full panel, one participant noted that "forecasting" is a buzz word, giving the impression that now we don't have to worry because we forecast so well. However, damage is still repetitive. Is it because the focus is on response and not on vulnerability based on socioeconomic factors? O'Lenic replied that in addition to maps of El Niño impacts, there is a need for maps of vulnerability based on those impacts. Documentation to remind people of what happened in the past would also be useful. Stanley called for reaching an audience beyond government, to include the private sector because they are the stockholders, not the stakeholders. Minka noted the importance of taking recurring hazards and placing them in the context of daily activities. A final comment from the audience was that society should not be smug in terms of its ability to forecast-there is still a gap between forecasting and appropriate response.
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