998 Hazards Research and Applications Workshop

S98-30
THE HAZARDOUSNESS OF PLACE: MODELLING RISK AND VULNERABILITY

Moderator: John Porco, Michael Baker, Jr. Inc.
Recorder: Steven Jensen, Wellington, New Zealand, Emergency Management Office
Discussant: Burrell E. Montz, Binghamton University

Hazards research has tended to focus on individual hazards or events at a particular place. Studies that have looked at multiple hazards have approached these as a sum of separate events, rather than as a suite of events with an interactive nature and composite probability of occurrence. However, the real world often presents multiple hazards of an interactive nature. Much of the picture is missed by not portraying the dynamics of multiple hazards in modelling efforts.

Geographic Information Systems have improved our ability to portray and analyze hazards, though it is unclear how well this technology can be applied to multiple hazards. This research project attempts to analyze the composite vulnerability of multiple hazards, including independent and linked events. By building on earlier research undertaken by the investigator and others, the goal is to develop, test, and refine a methodology for evaluating the nature and range of the suite of natural hazards at a particular place. The cities of Pinellas and Hillsborough in the Tampa Bay, Florida, area are the focus of the study.

The research questions are as follows:

  1. What is the range of events to which an area is subject, including recurrence intervals or return times?

  2. What functional relationships best represent the linkages and probabilities of events, the occurrence of which is dependent on the occurrence of other events?

  3. What socio-economic and political factors serve to define vulnerability to these events?

  4. What functional relationships between probability of occurrence and vulnerability characteristics represent the damage/loss potential for a given spatial area?

Comments from attendees concerned the feasibility of using Monte Carlo methods with spatial data, problems inherent in probabilities, and other issues surrounding research methodologies.

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September 4, 1998

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