Scientists Cite Increased Probability of Large Earthquake in Southern California
On January 20, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities(WGCEP) announced that Southern California stands an 86% chance ofexperiencing a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake by the year 2024. Thisfigure incorporates a broader view of the risk in that area than the1988 official estimate made by the WGCEP, which predicted a 60% chanceof such a quake along the San Andreas Fault before the year 2018. Theseismologists noted that many recent earthquakes, such as the Northridgeevent that occurred in the Los Angeles area on January 17, 1994, haveoccurred on hidden or obscure faults. Thus, with this estimate theytried to assess the probabilities of all earthquakes equal to orgreater than magnitude 7 in southern California, whether or not theyoccur on recognized faults.
The scientists also noted that previous estimates assumed that faultsegments failed independently of other faults. However, recent studiesdetermined that neighboring segments frequently rupture simultaneously,as in the great 1857 earthquake on the San Andreas.
The group developed a master model to calculate the probability ofstrong shaking anywhere in southern California and plotted theinformation on a map. They found significant probabilities throughoutsouthern California, noting they exceeded 60% at Parkfield and in theImperial Valley and 40% in a zone extending from Santa Barbara acrossthe Ventura Basin on to San Bernardino.
The full report, "Seismic Hazards in Southern California: ProbableEarthquakes, 1994-2024: The Phase II Report," will be published in theApril 1995 edition of the "Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica." For further information on this project, contact Jill Andrews,Southern California Earthquake Center, Department of GeologicalSciences, University of Southern California, University Park, LosAngeles, CA 90089-0740; (213) 740-5843; fax: (213) 740-0011.
The Global Network for Natural Disaster Risk Management
The United Nations University, the World Seismic Safety Initiative(WSSI), the International Center for Disaster-Mitigation Engineering(INCEDE) at the University of Tokyo, and Stanford University havejointly initiated a Global Network on Natural Disaster Risk Management(GLO-DISNET) to promote effective programs to deal with natural disasterrisks worldwide. GLO-DISNET will focus primarily on assisting developingcountries in managing risks associated with natural disasters bypromoting research, training, and information dissemination. The networkwill take a multidisaster, multifaceted approach, covering aspects ofdisaster management from preparedness through response and recovery.
The principle functions of GLO-DISNET will be to define a generalframework for global research and training concerning natural disasterrisk management in developing countries and bring together relatedresearch under one network; promote interaction among researchers andinstitutions in order to encourage integrated research and training;create a global data base of research findings; and provide reliable,detailed information to support effective environmental management, riskmanagement, and government strategies to reduce risks due to naturaldisasters.
Other information resources will include a GLO-DISNET electronicbulletin board, e-mail links, and an audio-visual library. GLO-DISNETwill host an annual workshop on natural disaster risk management and,among its first activities, will offer training courses in cyclone- andflood-risk management for the Asia-Pacific region.
For more information about GLO-DISNET, contact Haresh C. Shah, Chair,WSSI Board of Directors, Department of Civil Engineering, StanfordUniversity, Stanford, CA 94305-4020; fax: (415) 725-8662; Juha I. Uitto,Academic Officer, United Nations University, 53-70 Jingumae 5-chome,Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150, Japan; fax; 81-3-3499-2828; or, Tsuneo Katayama,Director, International Center for Disaster-Mitigation Engineering,Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, 7-22-1, Roppongi,Minato-ku, Tokyo 106, Japan; fax: 81-3-3402-4165.
GWU Establishes Disaster Institute
In August 1994, The George Washington University (GWU) established theInstitute for Crisis and Disaster Management, Research, and Education.The institute is sponsored by the university's School of Engineering andApplied Science, Medical School, and Elliott School of InternationalAffairs. The objective of the institute is to support the emergency andcrisis management activities of responsible federal, state, and not-for-profit organizations by studying disaster management and decision makingand promoting the transfer of knowledge to decision makers.
The institute will integrate existing expertise and research at GWU inthe areas of crisis management and planning, emergency medicine, urbansearch and rescue, systems and information engineering, and risk andvulnerability analysis. The director of the institute is John Harrald,professor of engineering management. The institute will establish closerelationships with external organizations and other GWU centers.
Institute researchers will focus on five areas:
- improving response organizations, contingency plans, and response capabilities
- acquiring, structuring, and communicating expert knowledge and developing decision aids and support systems
- developing and facilitating crisis and emergency management education and training programs
- facilitating information exchange through the support of electronic networking and the establishment of a Washington connection for other disaster research and education centers and experts
- assessing and communicating risk and vulnerability for natural, technological, and political (e.g., terrorist) hazards
Current activities of the institute include the initiation of acurriculum development project for graduate education in crisis andemergency management, the preparation of short courses, and severalresearch projects. The institute is also working with the Association ofBay Area Governments in an effort to develop models for predicting masscare demands following catastrophic earthquakes. Work on two otherprojects will start in 1995: the development of methods for elicitingand structuring expert knowledge following disasters, and a jointproject with the National Institute for Urban Search and Rescue forimproving federal, state, and local information sharing andcommunication through the use of an "emergency" lane on the informationsuperhighway.
For additional information, contact the Institute for Crisis andDisaster Management, Research, and Education, Gelman Library, Room 637,The George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052; (202) 994-4892;fax: (202) 994-4606; e-mail: harrald@seas.gwu.edu.
House Task Force Issues Report
In February 1994, the House of Representatives leadership appointed abipartisan Task Force on Natural Disasters to examine the nation'sdisaster strategy following the recent spate of costly naturaldisasters. The task force was charged with recommending improvements indisaster management and reducing the costs of disasters to U.S.taxpayers; its final report was issued in December. The major conclusionis that the growth of the federal government's role in disaster responsehas increased public expectations. Federal disaster assistancediscourages individuals, communities, and state governments from takingactions to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters. The taskforce listed six goals for an effective national disaster policy:
- encourage individuals to assume greater responsibility in disasters and help make insurance and other resources available to assist that effort
- support volunteer and emergency response organizations
- encourage state and local governments to become more active in preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery
- improve coordination and efficiency of federal disaster programs
- reduce the costs of disasters to federal taxpayers and emphasize the supplementary role of federal assistance in disasters
- reduce the cost of disasters by encouraging effective preparedness and mitigation activities.
The report also lists 54 specific recommendations for Congress,including considering a private, nationally based all-hazard insuranceprogram; encouraging states to establish disaster response funds;requiring a three-fifths majority vote for assistance to states that donot maintain disaster funds; allowing state and local governments to useCommunity Development Block Grants for disaster preparedness andresponse; establishing a national disaster trust fund of $2 billion topay for disaster preparedness and response efforts; and requiring stateand local jurisdictions to adopt and enforce building codes as acondition of federal disaster assistance.
Copies of the House task force report are free and can be obtained fromthe Office of U.S. Representative Richard Durbin, 2463 Rayburn HouseOffice Building, Washington, DC 20515, (202) 225-5271.
The ECHO Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Programme
In support of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction,the European Community Humanitarian Office (ECHO) has developed an"Action Programme in the Field of Disaster Preparedness" The programcovers both natural and human-caused catastrophes, recognizing that arelatively small investment in disaster preparedness can save thousandsof lives and economic assets.
In line with IDNDR recommendations, the ECHO program focuses on:
- human resource development for preparedness
- management and institutional strengthening of preparedness structures
- community-based, low-cost technology for disaster preparedness.
These three themes have been chosen because, first, the effectiveness ofexternal relief assistance largely depends on appropriate locally baseddisaster preparedness structures, and, second, strengthening localcapacities and self-reliance, along with promoting internationalcooperation, are the most cost-effective and sustainable approaches todisaster management.
Since May 1994, ECHO actions have included the selection of 15 projectson national/regional levels in Africa, Asia, and Latin America,representing an investment exceeding $2.8 million in the last quarter of1994. Overall, these projects are aimed at reducing the vulnerability todisasters of the most exposed groups - women and children - incommunities. Projects have been selected based on several criteria,including environmental soundness, the active participation of women inthe decision-making process, long-term sustainability and cost-effectiveness. The following examples illustrate the ECHO approach.
In Bangladesh, ECHO is assisting communities in organizing village-levelgroups to set up radio-based early warning systems and training forrelief management. Also, community-managed emergency credit funds andflood insurance funds have been created, along with silage facilitiesfor storage of emergency supplies. The project will benefitapproximately 120,000 landless and near-landless households. ECHO hasalso undertaken an earthquake/landslide hazard mitigation project in theSan Martin and Grau regions of Northern Peru, where ECHO is contributingto research and implementation of earthquake/landslide mitigationtechnologies. On the multilateral level, ECHO supports the UnitedNations Department of Humanitarian Affaris, and particularly the IDNDRSecretariat, in the development of institutional policy guidelines fordisaster preparedness and the creation of information systems to enhancecoordination among relief agencies. Furthermore, ECHO is activelyinvolved in the development of the U.N. MCDA program, and the use ofmilitary and civil defense assets in humanitarian operations followingnatural disasters.
Given that over 90% of ECHO's humanitarian activities are in conflictzones, applicable prevention strategies are being developed andimplemented For example, ECHO has undertaken projects in Burundi, and,on a structural level, ECHO is assisting the European Parliament withthe creation of a European Centre for Crisis Analysis (ECCA), which willmonitor specific indicators in order to provide warning prior to theoutbreak of a crisis.
Along with an expansion of current activities in 1995, ECHO's disasterpreparedness program envisions an operational presence at the field-level through the establishment of "Focal Centers" in disaster-proneregions of the world. These will ensure both appropriate sensitivity toregional variation and continuity in the global approach of the program.In addition, a group of experts and national policy makers will beselected to support and guide the program. For more information, contactE. Thielmann, European Commission, European Community HumanitarianOffice (ECHO), Rue de la Loi 200, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium; tel: (+32-2)29-69-485; fax: (+32-2) 29-54-551, Telex COMEU B 21877.
Back to the Enviro Geog Page.