Shakeout Scenario Supplementary Reports

A 7.8 magnitude Southern Californian earthquake would kill 1,800 people, injure 50,000 and wreak about $213 billion in damage, according to ShakeOut Scenario, a joint study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the California Geological Survey.

The report is the most comprehensive look at what a major Southern California earthquake could mean and is the framework for "Golden Guardian '08" — California’s largest earthquake preparedness drill, set for November 13, 2008.

To create the Scenario, geologists determined potential motion along the part of the San Andreas Fault with the greatest risk of rupture, seismologists and computer scientists modeled ground shaking, and engineers and building professionals used those models to estimate damage to the built environment. Social scientists evaluated emergency response, casualties, and the impact on economy and society.

The full report was presented to congress May 22, 2008. These supplementary reports examine potential vulnerabilities such as fire following an earthquake, the performance of concrete buildings and unreinforced masonry, compromised hazardous materials and pipelines, and other concerns. Specific reports can be accessed below.