It could be the plot of the next blockbuster disaster movie—a scientist on the fringes of seismology invents the impossible, a machine that can predict earthquakes. Although many scoff at the notion, it’s not long before the scientist gets a hit—a big one is on the way. Alone and held in contempt, he must warn the unsuspecting public that they’ll soon be crushed in their beds, but he’s thwarted at every turn by the mindless government machine and the hegemony of the scientific community.

It’s no wonder the similar story of Giampaoalo Giuliani, who claims to have predicted the recent Italian earthquake, is holding popular media in his thrall. But will his tantalizing tale of scientific censorship and subsequent “vindication” lead people to believe that earthquake prediction is a possibility?

Giuliani’s story has run alongside news coverage of Monday’s 6.3-magnitude earthquake in Italy’s Abruzzo region all week and is still gaining momentum. From the New York Times to the Los Angeles Times to Time magazine, the combination of good timing and proffered hope has captured imaginations in both Italy and the United States. It’s that combination—especially in the wake of Italy’s loss—that could lead some to believe earthquake damage and death is predictable and therefore preventable.

"Being able to predict earthquakes is the Holy Grail of seismology," Caltech seismologist Egill Hauksson is quoted as saying in the Los Angeles Times article. "The more we try, the less progress we seem to make."

According to the news stories—from which, it seems, much has been lost and gained in translation—Giuliani predicted a high-magnitude earthquake would strike the town of Sulmona in late March. The prediction was based on radon gas emissions, which are sometimes observed before a quake strikes. Giuliani took his Chicken Little message to the streets, making statements on blogs, television, and radio, and even via a van with loudspeakers, by some accounts.

After no major quake transpired, Giuliani—who is alternately described as a seismologist, a physicist, or a technician affiliated with either Italy’s National Institute of Nuclear Physics or Gran Sasso National Laboratory—was charged with spreading false alarm. To add insult to injury, the head of Italy’s Civil Protection Agency called Giuliani and his ilk “imbeciles,” according to Time.

"These imbeciles enjoy spreading false news," the magazine requoted Guido Bertolaso as saying. "Everyone knows that you can't predict earthquakes."

Everyone except Giuliani. When Monday’s earthquake badly damaged L’Aquila—about 30 miles south of Sulmona—he immediately seized the airwaves, calling for an apology and laying the 278 dead on the conscience of the officials.

Since then, geologists have been trying to set the record straight on mankind’s ability to predict quakes (see the April 7 post on Scienceinsider for an insightful discussion of the Giuliani case, including background on earthquake prediction attitudes over the last 30 years). The bottom line is that a lot of testing lies ahead of even the most promising methods of trying to get ahead of quakes. And even if it was available now, emergency officials would likely face the same resistance evacuation as they do now with more clearly impeding events such as floods and hurricanes.

Even though technology for earthquake modeling and prediction is improving, most scientists agree that weathering earthquakes without destruction will have to wait for the sequel.