October might not bring much relief for U.S. coasts, which this year have played host to the most landfalling storms—six in all—since 1851. Now hurricane experts are predicting another month of above-average storm activity, including the possibility of more major hurricanes.
Longtime Colorado State University storm oracles Philip Klotzbach and William Gray predicted a “well above average” number of Atlantic storms for October based on the barrage of activity so far, according to their monthly forecast.
Three named storms, two hurricanes, and a major hurricane could form this month based on Klotzbach’s and Gray’s statistical analyses and above-average surface temperatures in the Atlantic, the report stated. In June 2008, the scientists predicted a seasonal total of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four intense hurricanes. Through October 1, 2008, those numbers were 12, six, and three, respectively.
The forecasts are based on statistical analyses of 60 years worth of storm data and do not predict landfall. The Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project, a related effort by Klotzbach, allows users to access information about possible landfalls by state and county.
Jolie Breeden is the lead editor and science communicator for Natural Hazards Center publications. She writes and edits for Research Counts; the Quick Response, Mitigation Matters, Public Health, and Weather Ready Research Award report series; as well as for special projects and publications. Breeden graduated summa cum laude from the University of Colorado Boulder with a bachelor’s degree in journalism.