Hurricanes have long created a storm of controversy in the climate science community—will human-induced climate change affect the intensity or frequency of tropical cyclones? Those arguments might soon die down.
A recent paper in the journal Nature Geoscience goes a long way toward reconciling some of the controversy, with several scientists who previously sparred now agreeing on some issues. The crux of the report is that fewer—but stronger and wetter—hurricanes are likely as a result of human-induced climate change.
The paper, “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change,” found that it’s likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones “will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged owing to greenhouse warming.” The paper was written by an expert panel from the World Meteorological Organization to try to resolve some of the controversies
Even so, those tropical storms that do occur will be stronger and potentially more destructive, according to the paper.
“Some increase in the mean maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones is likely (+2 percent to +11 percent globally) with projected twenty-first-century warming,” the paper states. “The frequency of the most intense storms will more likely than not increase by a substantially larger percentage in some basins.”
An 11 percent increase in wind speed equates to a roughly 60 percent increase in damage, Massachusetts Institute of Technology climate scientist Kerry Emanuel told the Associated Press. Rainfall is also likely to increase by 20 percent within 100 kilometers of the tropical cyclone center, the article stated.
One notable aspect of the paper is that it sees two authors—Emanuel and National Hurricane Center Meteorologist Chris Landsea—in agreement. The two previously debated aspects of the hurricane-climate change nexus.
The report was careful to say, however, “it remains uncertain whether past changes in any tropical cyclone activity exceed the variability expected through natural cause, after accounting for changes over time in observing capabilities.” That is, because of the quality of available historical data on storm intensity and frequency, it can’t be said whether a climate change signature has yet been seen.
Jolie Breeden is the lead editor and science communicator for Natural Hazards Center publications. She writes and edits for Research Counts; the Quick Response, Mitigation Matters, Public Health, and Weather Ready Research Award report series; as well as for special projects and publications. Breeden graduated summa cum laude from the University of Colorado Boulder with a bachelor’s degree in journalism.