Media reports and color-coded terrorism advisories might give the impression that our post-9/11 world is rife with terrorism like never before. Not so, according to a recent report from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START).
The START report, Hot Spots of Terrorism and Other Crimes in the United States, 1970 to 2008, looked at more than 2,600 terrorist attacks during the study period and found that not only have terrorist attacks declined dramatically, they’ve also been largely concentrated in five metropolitan areas. Terrorist attacks resulting in fatalities have also decreased substantially—even falling to zero in 2003-2005.
“Whereas nearly 1,500 events took place in the 1970s, just over 200 occurred from 2000 to 2008,” the report stated. “The number of fatal attacks has also decreased over this same period of time from a high of 26 in the 1970 calendar year to a low of 15 for the entire 2000 to 2008 time period.”
When it comes to where those events occurred, nearly one-third of all U.S. attacks in the last 40 years took place in five metropolitan counties—Manhattan, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami-Dade, and Washington, D.C., the report stated. Between 1970 and 2008, Manhattan logged 343 attacks; Los Angeles County, 156 attacks; Miami-Dade, 103; San Francisco, 99; and Washington, D.C., 79.
The trend, however, does seem to be changing a little in recent years as some more rural counties—notably Maricopa County in Arizona, which includes the Phoenix metro area—have been labeled “hot spots,” (meaning they’ve had more than six attacks during the study period). This could be due to the type of terrorism, such as environmentally motivated attacks, said START Director Gary LaFree.
“Mainly, terror attacks have been a problem in the bigger cities, but rural areas are not exempt,” stated LaFree, who is also the lead author of the report. “The main attacks driving Maricopa into recent hot spot status are the actions of radical environmental groups, especially the Coalition to Save the Preserves. So, despite the clustering of attacks in certain regions, it is also clear that hot spots are dispersed throughout the country and include places as geographically diverse as counties in Arizona, Massachusetts, Nebraska, and Texas.”
Political motivations for the attacks have changed over time, as well. In the 1970s, left-wing groups dominated terrorist incidents. Ethno-national and separatist terrorism was concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s. Religiously motivated attacks occurred mostly in the 1980s. And extreme right-wing terrorism was concentrated in the 1990s, the report states. According to the report, left-wing politics was the motivation for 364 attacks; a “single issue” motivated 337; ethno-national separatism, 320; and extreme right-wing political leanings were credited with 58. Perhaps most surprising—and reassuring, given recent fears—only 14 of the attacks were religiously motivated.
Jolie Breeden is the lead editor and science communicator for Natural Hazards Center publications. She writes and edits for Research Counts; the Quick Response, Mitigation Matters, Public Health, and Weather Ready Research Award report series; as well as for special projects and publications. Breeden graduated summa cum laude from the University of Colorado Boulder with a bachelor’s degree in journalism.