In the wake of disaster destruction, there’s often a reminder that things could have been worse. As the U.S. Eastern Seaboard begins a long road to recovery after Hurricane Sandy, the reminder comes from the unlikeliest of places—outer space.
Though nothing could stop Sandy from barreling up the coast, model storm paths began to converge on Delaware five days before the most severe impacts there, giving states the confidence to declare emergencies well in advance of the storm. This level of accuracy would have been impossible without U.S. Joint Polar Satellite System tracking data.
“Polar satellites provide 84 percent of the data used in the main American computer model tracking Hurricane Sandy,” according to a recent New York Times article.
But the U.S. polar satellites now in orbit have either reached or surpassed their expected lifespan, and their replacement is not anticipated before 2017, reports the Washington Post.
The satellites provide daily pole-to-pole Earth scans, with critical mid-afternoon atmospheric measurements near the equator. These measurements are the ones that would likely be derailed if satellites shut down before a temporary or permanent solution could be implemented, reports The Atlantic.
The looming failure has led to accusations of gross mismanagement, sky-high expenses, and project delays, leading the $13 billon joint NASA-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration program to be labeled “dysfunctional” in a recent independent program review, according to the Times.
While NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenko admits to management problems, Deputy Administrator and former astronaut Kathryn Sullivan remains optimistic.
“We have worked hard over the past year to stabilize the management of these vital programs,” Sullivan explained to the U.S. House of Representatives last June. With conditional approval from Congress, the agency is now funneling funding from other projects into the satellite program.
Good intentions aside, reliance on these satellites for disaster preparedness and public safety cannot be underestimated.
“Just 25 years ago, when the National Hurricane Center tried to predict where a hurricane would hit three days in advance of landfall, it missed by an average of 350 miles,” writes Nate Silver, author of “The Signal and the Noise.” “Now the average miss is only about 100 miles.”
So how worried should we be?
According to the Times, while NOAA did manage to put a new satellite named Suomi into orbit last year, it is a precarious bridge at best. Due to technical glitches, some predict Suomi’s life to be a mere three years, which would put even more pressure on program workers already scrambling to create a sound back-up plan.
NASA and NOAA have faced this situation before. In 2007, similar concerns were raised over replacing polar satellite QuickSCAT in a controversial opinion piece (and rebuttal piece) in the Los Angeles Times. QuickSCAT began its Earth scans in 1999 with an expected life of just two years. Like the little engine that could, QuickSCAT chugged on for an entire decade—Casey Jonesin’ it eight years longer than expected before it died in November 2009.
Given the destruction and damage caused by Hurricane Sandy, even with advanced warnings and accurate storm path predictions, can we afford to roll on past the red flags?
Results from a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences indicate that likely, we cannot. The study examines hurricane frequency specifically in the North Atlantic. Its findings indicate that hurricanes characterized by large storm surges have increased in frequency since 1923.
The study also suggests that the chances of large-scale hurricanes developing in the Southeastern United States are twice as likely during warm years than cold years, according to Los Angeles Times. As global climates and yearly temperatures are predicted to continue to rise, a gap in future U.S. satellite coverage could cost us dearly.
“We cannot afford to lose any enhancement that allows us to accurately forecast any weather event coming our way,” Craig J. Craft, commissioner of emergency management for Nassau County on Long Island, told the Times.
Stacia Ryder is an assistant professor in the Department of Sociology at Utah State University. She received her PhD in sociology in 2019 from Colorado State University and worked as a postdoctoral research in the Department of Geography at the University of Exeter from 2019-2023. Stacia uses a critical approach to examine how power dynamics create justice issues in environmental, energy and climate contexts. She has authored several publications on such subjects. Stacia aims to create concrete social change by working with communities to center just and equitable transitions as essential components of climate planning and policy.