Around the world, countries are beginning to recognize that the extreme weather caused by climate change can set events in motion that lead to violence, supply chain disruptions, and other dynamics that put nations at risk. And while the oft-debated topic isn’t yet public enemy number one, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency is starting to take the specter of global warming more seriously.

“The area of climate change has a dramatic impact on national security,” U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was quoted as saying by the American Forces Press Service. “Rising sea levels, severe droughts, the melting of the polar caps—the more frequent and devastating natural disasters all raise demand for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.”

They can also raise levels of social and political stress that can lead to national security issues, according to a recent study by the National Academy of Sciences. The study, which was requested by the CIA, examines the unprecented threat of climate change and calls for full consideration of its impacts in U.S. national defense planning and strategies.

The recommendation makes sense, especially in the face of recent record-breaking natural disasters. But incorporating the caprice of climate change into defense planning might be easier said than done.

“Fundamental knowledge of climate dynamics indicates that many types of extreme climate events are likely to become more frequent, even though we do not know enough to predict which extreme events will occur where or when,” the National Academies report stated.

The report committee zeroed in on social and political stresses and security risks that stem from specific climate events. Since the intelligence community typically deals in more concrete threat assessments, the report examination was limited to manageable, near-term risks.

While some risks stemming from extreme events—diversion of military resources, for instance—might seem obvious, others are more subtle and indirect. These include nations made vulnerable by disaster, regions lacking access to resources such as petroleum and water, and even increased interpersonal violence.

So how should the United States mitigate national security risks in the wake of climate change? Jump on the bandwagon with the rest of the federal agencies, the report suggests.

“The intelligence community should participate in a whole-of-government effort to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change,” it states.

The study also highlights the importance of including disaster professionals and academics in this whole-bodied approach.

“An important need is to integrate the social science of natural disasters and disaster response with other forms of analysis,” the report stated. “This body of knowledge is particularly important for assessing the security consequences of climate change because disruptive climate events will typically be perceived and responded to as natural disasters.”

Not everyone agreed with the report’s findings and suggestions.

David Victor, a climate policy researcher at the University of California, San Diego, responded to Andrew Revkin’s Dot Earth post on the report by praising some of the recommendations, but offering a slightly different view.

“There’s a reality to all this, but also a huge amount of hype. And in the security/intelligence community, where most of what you do is deal with near term threats because the more distant future is so hard to manage, these environmental issues are seen as long on noise and short on signal,” said Victor.

Still, the report sheds light on beginning to conceptualize climate change as national security foe. And whether you think the CIA needs to pay attention to climate change or not, the committee’s bottom line for defense is clear:

“It is essential for the intelligence community to understand adaptation and changes in vulnerability to climate events.”